SBA Communications Corp at Citi Global Property Conference

Mar 03, 2020 PM UTC 查看原文
SBAC.OQ - SBA Communications Corp
SBA Communications Corp at Citi Global Property Conference
Mar 03, 2020 / 01:50PM GMT 

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Corporate Participants
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   *  Jeffrey A. Stoops
      SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director
   *  Mark DeRussy
      SBA Communications Corporation - VP of Finance

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Conference Call Participants
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   *  Michael Rollins
      Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst

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Presentation
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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [1]
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 And welcome to the 8:50 a.m. session at Citi's 2020 Global Property CEO Conference. For those of you I have not had the opportunity to meet and for those of you on the line, I'm Mike Rollins with Citi Research. And we're pleased to have with us SBA Communications and CEO, Jeff Stoops. Thank you for joining us today.

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [2]
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 Happy to be here, Mike. Thanks.

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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [3]
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 This session is for investing clients only. If media or other individuals are on the line, please disconnect now. Disclosures are available up here and on the webcast on the Disclosure tab. For those in the room or on the webcast, you can sign into liveqa.com, enter code Citi2020 with a capital C, to submit any questions or you could just raise your hand or push the button on your microphone and we'll get you involved in the conversation.

 I'm going to turn this over to Jeff in just a moment to introduce your company as well as your management team that's with you today and provide the audience 3 reasons why investors should buy your stock today, and then we'll jump into the rest of the Q&A. So I'll turn it over to you, Jeff.

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [4]
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 Thanks, Mike. SBA was founded in 1989, so we recently celebrated our 30th year in business and our 20th year as a public company. We were founded originally to assist the wireless carriers in the development of their networks.

 About 10 years to our history, we moved into the asset ownership side of the business, specifically to own, operate and lease wireless towers. We are 1 of only 3 U.S.-based wireless infrastructure REITs available to investors today and the one with the highest percentage of revenue coming from U.S. tower leases, although we do have a strong and growing international tower business as well.

 And over the years since we went public in 1999, we fine-tuned the balance sheet, our capital allocation and operational strategy, which over our 20-year history as a public company, has produced an 18% CAGR. That's over the 20 years we've been public.

 We began paying a dividend in the third quarter of last year, which is why we may not be as familiar to many of you because we just -- actually, this is our first Citi REIT conference. And we did that ahead of exhausting our NOLs so that we could have a better path to control our dividend going forward and a better growth trajectory.

 And just 2 weeks ago, we raised that dividend 26%. So the 3 reasons that -- I'm going to actually give you 4 reasons. The 4 reasons that investors should buy our stock today is our strategy, combined with current market opportunities, should continue to position SBA for superior AFFO growth relative to our tower peers and the REIT universe as a whole.

 Our very low current dividend payout ratio positions us for superior dividend growth relative to our tower peers and the REIT universe as a whole. The quality of our EBITDA, AFFO and margins are tops in our industry, and we expect them to stay that way. And we're actually on the cusp of a very, I think, exciting and high-growth time here in the U.S. market, which, of course, is going to be -- the catalyst will be the culmination of the Sprint T-Mobile transaction, which for those of you who are familiar with that, comes with it some very rigorous 5G buildout requirements, which we believe will spur both AT&T and Verizon to do the same. So starting later this year and continuing on for several, in fact, many years beyond that, we're going to see a heightened level of activity, which will -- in order to the benefit of the tower industry in general and SBA, in particular. And I was remiss. Before I jumped into all that, I want to introduce my long-time colleague, Mark DeRussy, who heads up our Investor Relations area and is our Vice President of Capital Finance.

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Questions and Answers
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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [1]
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 Thank you. And one question that we're opening each of the sessions with is on the topic of ESG. ESG is an increasing importance for all company stakeholders. And what is the one thing your company is doing to improve your overall ESG score over the next 12 months?

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [2]
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 I saw that question, Mike. I thought long and hard about it, and I'm going to give you an answer which would sound perhaps a little naive and perhaps a little flip, but it's not meant to be either. We're actually going to tell our story.

 One of the things we have not done a good job of is tell our story. And I think, as you all know, the -- you have to tell your story to get rated. And we haven't really done a good job of that, and shame on us. So this year, we're actually focused on capturing all the statistics and doing all the things that matter there, things like fuel efficiency of our fleet, the things that we're doing, not only with our buildings, but out of the cell sites for ourselves and for our customers in terms of fuel efficiency, the things that we're doing in the communities, the things that we're doing for our employees, all the things that we have been doing, but haven't been talking about. So we will have a lot to say, and we will actually do a better job of saying it. So we're looking forward to letting folks know exactly what we have been doing, and I think we're going to see some nice improvements there.

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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [3]
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 Well, thanks. So maybe jumping into the business more directly. Since it's your first time here at the property conference, can you talk about how you see the barriers to entry for your business model? And how you would frame that both for the U.S. business maybe as well as for what you're doing overseas?

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [4]
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 Yes. There are 2 principles -- 2 principal barriers to entry in our business, which now have withstood a 20-year test. The first is zoning. Zoning, of course, makes it very, very difficult to put up new wireless infrastructure. You've all, I'm sure, heard many times the not in my backyard phenomena, and it is very real. It only takes 1 or 2 people are zoning hearing to assert their will over the wishes of many.

 There is a whole newfound force at play, which the people in the industry are very much against because it's not supported by science. But it is very real nonetheless, which is the health concerns about getting towers built. And that makes things increasingly more difficult to get wireless site, which, of course, brings up the values of the existing assets.

 But perhaps even more of a barrier to entry than the zoning is the engineering that goes along with the existing networks. The reason cellular networks are named cellulars, they work like human cells. They interact with each other. So a network, a cellular network is unbelievably highly engineered. It is very, very, very difficult to move a cell once it is located, power has brought to it, backhaul is brought to it. You bring your second -- your 2G, then your 3G. Everything evolves around that engineering. And that is the network, and that is how future generations are engineered.

 So the combination of zoning and the engineering makes the stickiness and the location of the sites and the towers where the existing sites are located extremely solid and long lasting. And that's why we have the high recurring revenue and the high predictability on our revenue stream.

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 Mark DeRussy,  SBA Communications Corporation - VP of Finance   [5]
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 One thing I'd add is, as a result of all that, the supply of towers in the United States typically grows at around 1% a year. And most of those are not competitive existing infrastructures. Those are built for capacity and coverage.

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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [6]
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 And so we had a couple of questions come in from our site. So one question that's come up is, in a 5G world, do you see a benefit to merging with a data center business?

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [7]
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 Yes and no. The data center business today that a lot of the folks in this room are perhaps invested in, is more of a hyperscale business and perhaps where you have huge single locations that are rented out to an Amazon or a Microsoft. That doesn't really, there's not a lot of synergies there between that business and the business that we're in today other than it's a -- I think it's a good business and it's a revenue diversification, both of which are nice to have. But they're not particularly synergistic.

 Where the synergies come in, and in fact, for those of you who may not know, we did buy a data center in Chicago earlier this year. And we did it so that we can understand how data center operates, so that as the 5G world progresses and the computing power needs to get closer to the cell site, which is what most are predicting will be necessary to achieve the true low latency speeds and the true 5G experience that will allow autonomous driving and gaming and all the other applications that people have talked about and are technologically possible, the cell site of today will become the mini data center in the future. And we, of course, have the real estate today. We have the connections to the cell site. We're basically there.

 So we want to understand what that opportunity is. So our opportunity going forward is a spectrum of operational options. We could be a landlord to someone else who comes in and operates that many data center. We could be somewhere in between, where we own the physical structure and let the active operations of the electronics and the sales go to someone else or we can do the whole thing. So we want to know which one of those will make the most sense, be the highest return on invested capital, be the best for our shareholders, which is why we bought the data center that we did more for an R&D kind of proposition than anything else. But to actually merge at a very high level with a large hyperscale player, I'm not -- other than bigger and diversification, you're not going to see a lot of back-office synergies. There's no sales force synergies, and it might not be as intuitive as folks would think.

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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [8]
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 And maybe just taking -- just to step back, one of the questions that's coming up for a lot of the companies is the potential impacts related to the coronavirus. Can you talk about how you see any potential impacts for your business and how it may affect your customers working with you?

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [9]
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 Well, knock on wood, we haven't seen any direct or even one-off indirect impacts yet. I think, I mean, it'll pop in probably hard-to-imagine ways. Certainly, well, people stay at home. It probably actually benefits the communications sector, not that that's anybody's wish.

 We don't supply chain anything really from these affected areas. We are in Latin America, and we recently expanded into South Africa. I'm struggling to think, Mike, because I don't see it yet. I mean, we've put in similar warnings to the government agencies about not travel bans, so to speak, but warnings and watching where people go to, go from. I mean, we canceled out a Mobile World Congress and wouldn't be sending people to the Far East and things like that, but I don't really see a direct or even an indirect impact at this point.

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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [10]
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 And moving to the domestic operations. You mentioned earlier about the proposed and pending merger, T-Mobile and Sprint. A few months back, I think you talked about once that the direction of the deal was resolved that you thought it could lead to an improvement in activity. Can you walk through just how you see activity in the domestic business progressing over the next couple of years with all of the different moving pieces? If you could summarize how you see the impacts.

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [11]
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 Well, a tower, for those of you who aren't tower investors, a tower, so we have a very, very strong business model with wonderful margins and very strong recurring revenue. But there is so many -- just so many tenants for a tower. So in a typical consolidation announcement, and this happened back when AT&T announced it was acquiring T-Mobile, and then it also happened initially when T-Mobile announced it was acquiring Sprint, all the tower stocks initially dropped, right? Intuitive because you have one less tenant in the universe for your towers.

 But what has happened now coming out of all the approvals for T-Mobile-Sprint is as a condition of the approval, there has been enough spectrum and enough concessions and enough customers move out of the combined Sprint Corporation to DISH to create a true, new fourth replacement national facilities-based provider. And a facilities-based provider is someone who owns their own network.

 So it went from a situation where the universe in the U.S. looked like it was going from 4 national carriers to 3 now back to 4. So that, of course, was a very big positive for our industry and for our company in particular.

 So what will happen now -- and one other thing, which is also a great benefit, I believe, is that the government, as a condition to this approval, they require that Sprint T-Mobile and Dish build out certain nationwide coverages for 5G service within certain periods of time, which means that they have to deploy a lot of new equipment across the country within the next 3 to 5 years. And that is an equipment intensive, touch the towers, hang new equipment, increase the revenues to our industry type of endeavor.

 What will happen there, and you've seen this in the wireless industry, is if T-Mobile Sprint -- we'll just call it new T-Mobile. If new T-Mobile now begins to get materially ahead in the 5G arms race because they're now actually building out 5G, it's very likely that AT&T and Verizon will have to respond, which will cause them now to increase their spending on 5G and AT&T, which or AT&T and Verizon on 5G, which most people believe they will anyway.

 But in addition to that, the government, to help facilitate all that, has now made efforts to work with the satellite community to cause a very critical band of spectrum, particularly critical for AT&T and Verizon, called the C-band spectrum. And it's this band of spectrum in the middle of the wireless world that is really critical for 5G. And that's going to become available at the end of this year, just about the time that the new T-Mobile is really starting to crank out building 5G.

 So you have this whole confluence of events coming together in the beginning and halfway through this year and then carrying through the next several years, where you should have all 4, including new T-Mobile and Dish, building out of a fairly ferocious clip of these new 5G systems.

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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [12]
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 And so what does that then mean? Just think of the average of what site leasing growth could do over time. Is there any way just to quantify some of those sensitivities of how that for -- maybe the current guidance for organic growth, what that might mean on average in the next 3 to 5 years?

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [13]
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 Well, I don't want to get too far into giving out future guidance because we don't do that, but it will certainly mean more in terms of revenue dollars.

 Keep in mind that one of the great things of our business is that we don't lose much, if any, revenue at all, but that's when you then go to calculate next year's growth rates. You have the law of larger numbers to deal with that, so you basically have to outgrow 10% in new absolute dollars to keep your same growth rate.

 But we do think growth rates are going to go up based on the starting in 2021, off of 2020, based on this activity that we've just described because it is going to be a lot. And it's a lot because the particular way that these customers will need to optimally deploy in the markets that we're in will come through a new antenna in this C-band, mid-band spectrum, which is called Massive MIMO. And that's just a bigger, larger, heavier antenna. And our business isn't much different than any other kind of real estate. I mean, somebody comes into an office building and says, "Hey, I need some more space." Well, what are they going to do? They're going to pay more for it, right? So you come to our business and you say, "I need to put something bigger on your tower." Well, fine, but you're going to pay more for that. I mean, that's called an amendment.

 And just like an office building that has only so much space to give, a tower has a certain capacity, now, thankfully, through some relatively modest additional investment, you can continue to increase the capacity of a tower. But it does have a theoretical capacity.

 So the business logic though is straightforward. You want to put more stuff on the tower, you want to put heavier stuff, well, then we need to have a conversation about some additional rents. And that's really the -- that's how the business has worked forever, and that's how it will continue to work. And this whole 5G buildout is going to be another opportunity for increased revenue growth, both with new tenants on existing towers or new -- not new names necessarily, but new sites for these tenants because they will have to densify their networks.

 So with T-Mobile and -- T-Mobile are here. Well, to do 5G, now they got to be here. So now you've got 3 antennas for the new T-Mobile, where only 2 needed to be before. So that's a new co-location. Plus, now, they have to come to wherever they were before and add new equipment to comply with the new spectrum to allow for the new T-Mobile to handle Sprint's customers.

 Remember, when you're a wireless carrier, the way you differentiate your customers and why you don't pick up Verizon's customers or AT&Ts is you have radios and phones that are tuned to your own customers. Well, T-Mobile now has to add a bunch of equipment to handle Sprint's customers. They don't want to lose those customers in the transaction, so now they have to add a bunch of equipment, which they'll have to do immediately. So that's going to be another boom to our business. And that's even before they begin the 5G buildout. That's just to save the existing big Sprint customers because, of course, AT&T and Verizon will be like, "All right. Well, here's an opportunity to take them."

 So we're going to see a very nice jump in levels of activity. Now, over time, you will see rationalization of the network. The new T-Mobile will take down overlapping sites, where there is the same -- on the same tower today, both Sprint and T-Mobile at 2 different height levels. You will not need both of those installations. One of those installations will get bigger. We'll benefit there. We will lose one.

 At the end of the day, we believe that the great growth and all of the activity that will come through this increased and enhanced 5G rollout will more than offset anything that comes along from what we call decommissioning of overlapping cell sites.

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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [14]
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 We've got a few questions in from the site, and a couple of them are focused on, for example, can you talk about the leasing strategy with respect to MLAs? Do you differ from your public peers on how you approach leasing? And maybe it's an opportunity to take these 2 questions, explore those, but maybe at a broader level, just explore how SBA maybe does some things differently versus its competitors in terms of the customer relationships, the MLAS, how you ultimately decide to allocate capital. Maybe you can just talk about how you see the company differentiating itself.

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [15]
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 Well, we -- I could spend a lot, and I'm going to have to pick and choose the 11 minutes I have left for that.

 On the MLA strategy, we actually have entered into a couple, and we've avoided a couple that our peers have entered into. And the ones that we've entered into, that's a master lease agreement with some of the large carriers. And the ones that we avoided, it was back when the industry -- the wireless industry and our customers were going from 3G to 4G technology. The gist of the issue for us was that our customers were seeking for a price, for an increased amount of money over a certain period of time the right to put on the tower kind of anything they wanted for that period of time.

 And we might have done that had we thought that the back and forth, the give and take was correct, but we didn't. We just thought that the amount of equipment that needed to be added to go from 3G to 4G was going to be much greater than what was being offered. And we chose to pass and price our services on an ala carte basis, much like I just explained when somebody comes back to you and says, "Okay. I need to add another room to the office building. What does it cost?"

 Well, it turned out that we were right, and that going from 3G to 4G was much more capital-intensive. And it turned out that in hindsight, we had a much greater increase in our revenues, which, of course, don't go away. So that's a permanent increase in our revenue base than our peers.

 That's not to say that we would not have done an MLA for the right terms and circumstances. And we would -- that we continue to hold that position because we've done them with T-Mobile. We've done them with Sprint, and we would do them with anyone where we would believe it's in the mutual best interest of both parties.

 Some of the other differences is we have always ran -- and this will be -- this will sound strange to some of you who don't know SBA well, but we have always run the company with higher leverage than our peers. We have always chosen to go the non-investment-grade path. We have always carefully structured our balance sheet to use a fair amount of secured debt, so that we can run about 2 turns of leverage higher, but replicate the same interest rates that an investment-grade company running at 2 turns of leverage less wood. And if you go back and look at our 2 public peers and run us back to the further spec, you could look at the stocks, you would see that our vast, vast, vast shareholder outperformance, I attribute that to capital structure.

 And we do that with a very, very high degree of experience. I was running the company in 2002. I was running the company in 2008. We know what these assets do. We know that all through the 2002 period, revenue continued to climb. We know they're all through the 2008 period. Revenue continued to climb.

 We also know from a lot of meetings with first-time folks, who've never seen the tower industry, that 7 to 7.5x leverage causes some people to ask some questions.

 But that's why we do it. It's with 20 years of experience and 20 years of results. We continue to be extremely well received in the capital markets. We just -- our most recent high-yield transaction, we are the only remaining tower, high-yield issuer. It was a 7-year issue at sub 4%. We have very good access to capital.

 The final differentiator that I would give to you is we -- as I mentioned earlier, we were the only 1 of the 3 who actually started out in the business as operators, contractors, guys who did the work and continue to do the work. We install the antennas. We climb the towers. We have tower crews, where -- we get our hands dirty.

 We believe that really keeps us close to the business. It gives us a good knows for what the tower sites are, what good tower sites aren't. The ultimate success or failure in this business is the quality of the assets. Do you have good assets that will withstand the test of time or not? And it's really our history and our kind of nose for towers that I think helps us make those decisions.

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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [16]
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 And to follow on that, when you consider 2 inputs into the way you allocate capital, the stock price and the treasury rate or interest rate environment, are there any changes or adjustments or directions you'd expect SBA to take relative to the choices that you've historically outlined between M&A, new builds and share repurchase after you pay for the dividends that you've guided to?

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [17]
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 Well, our first choice has always been portfolio growth. We always want to be growing the portfolio with the type of exclusive assets that we think will continue to drive the growth that we're looking for. We like to grow the EBITDA line. We like to grow assets that will provide new sources of low cost financing. And we've done a good job with that. We grew the portfolio 9% last year.

 However, we -- given where we believe value is created, which starts with where you want to lever the balance sheet, that typically creates more investable dollars than where we can invest in portfolio growth. So that, until recently, the dividend, now, of course, dividend picks up, but that has always left room recently now for stock repurchases. And we've been a very dynamic, opportunistic stock repurchaser. And we will continue to do that, and we will look to buy a lot more in terms of dollars when the stock price is low and less when it's not.

 And we will not -- what we will not be is an -- here invest X amount per day every day of the year. Just I don't believe in that.

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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [18]
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 And just briefly on the international side. Are there certain principles or philosophies when you're looking to allocate capital internationally that you subscribe to?

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [19]
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 One is to build in some very conservative foreign currency exchange assumptions into our decision-making. We're very conservative there. We are very, very good in our international markets and have built some very strong back-offices and relationships and have done extremely well operationally. I mean, we look for the same dynamics that have made the U.S. market great, a multiplicity of wireless carriers, a young growing dynamic kind of market, where cell phones will continue to proliferate. And in many markets such as Brazil, South Africa, they will never have the wired infrastructure that you have in the United States today.

 So they will be increasingly reliant on wireless for their communications. And in fact, in many of these places, they do much more of their banking wirelessly than you see here in the United States.

 So, yes, we look for a lot of those dynamics. And then, of course, you pick -- you have to pick your country risk. You -- I mean, we're not going to go into any places like Russia, China, china wouldn't allow us in there, or any place where there's a real risk that you have some kind of asset loss.

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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [20]
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 Do you have some -- time to be ready for our rapid-fire questions?

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [21]
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 Sure.

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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [22]
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 Great. Will your property sector have more or fewer public companies a year from now?

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [23]
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 What do you define as our property sector? Is it just us, Crown and American?

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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [24]
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 Call it towers.

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [25]
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 It's probably going to be the same.

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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [26]
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 What will the same-store NOI growth be for your property sector overall, not your company, in 2021?

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [27]
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 It's going to be higher.

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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [28]
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 What will the 10-year treasury yield be 1 year from today?

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [29]
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 2%.

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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [30]
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 What year will the U.S. enter a recession?

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [31]
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 Oh, the U.S. I missed -- I was going to answer for our sector. And I was going to say I don't think it will because we didn't have one in 2002 and 2008. But the U.S. I'll say 2022, and that's a poor guess.

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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [32]
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 In our remaining minute, is there anything else you'd like to share with the audience today?

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 Jeffrey A. Stoops,  SBA Communications Corporation - President, CEO & Director   [33]
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 No. I'm very pleased to be here. This is a good opportunity for us because I think there are a lot of folks that are unfamiliar with SBA Communications, which I understand since we've only now had 3 quarters of dividend declaration. I think there's a lot of folks who perhaps were interested, but could not bother or could not invest in us because of the lack of dividends. So anybody who doesn't know SBA, but is interested in learning more, we're very happy to make your acquaintance.

 Thanks, Mike.

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 Michael Rollins,  Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and U.S. Telecoms Analyst   [34]
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 Thanks for being here. Thank you.




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