ASML Holding NV at Credit Suisse Technology, Media & Telecom Conference
Dec 03, 2019 PM UTC
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ASML.AS - ASML Holding NV
ASML Holding NV at Credit Suisse Technology, Media & Telecom Conference
Dec 03, 2019 / 09:55PM GMT
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Corporate Participants
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* Roger J. M. Dassen
ASML Holding N.V. - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
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Conference Call Participants
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* Achal Sultania
Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Director
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Presentation
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Achal Sultania, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Director [1]
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Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us. For those of you who don't know me, I'm Achal Sultania. I cover European technology hardware for Crédit Suisse. I have the pleasure of hosting Roger with us, CFO of ASML. Roger, maybe if I start with looking at 2019, almost end of the year. If you look back at the year, clearly, there've been very, very divergent patterns we've seen in the logic foundry market versus what's been happening in the memory market. What's been the biggest surprise for you as we look back at 2019 in both those markets, both positively and negatively?
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Questions and Answers
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Roger J. M. Dassen, ASML Holding N.V. - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board [1]
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I think you summed it up nicely. When we started the year, we were looking at a top line number for ASML, which is not too far from where I think we're going to land. So we said we're going to be EUR 11.7 billion, EUR 11.8-ish billion in terms of total revenue in euros. But then when the year further unfolded, I think 2 events happened. On the one side, I think the -- on the one hand, I think the memory market was down more than we anticipated when we started the year, particularly for DRAM, more than we anticipated. We anticipated NAND to be weak for us. But DRAM turned out to be weaker than we anticipated when we started the year. The flip side is that the Logic turned out to be stronger than we anticipated. So all in all, it was -- all in all, I think, top line, we're going to land more or less where we anticipated it to be. If you really look at 2019, I think the big thing as far as I'm concerned, 2019, is the breakthrough that we had on EV on a number of fronts. I think EV going into high-volume manufacturing, so the fact that people can -- consumers can actually buy devices manufactured on UV (sic) [EV], I think, is a big deal. And I think the increased level of confidence and trust that our customers have in EV, I think that's probably the big thing that I would point out for 2019, the big event and the big breakthrough for that. So EV going into high-volume manufacturing is one element to that.
But also, I would point out the 23 orders for EV that we took in Q4 -- Q3, I think, is another big one, particularly because that was a healthy mix of both Logic and DRAM. So also the fact that now, seriously, by at least some customers, EUV is considered for insertion into DRAM, probably talk a little bit more about that later on. But I think that's another big breakthrough I think that we have for this year.
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Achal Sultania, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Director [2]
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Now if we think -- like if we go back into the memory and into the foundry market, it seems like your foundry business is probably [foundry / Logic] is probably about up 65%, 70% this year so far. Obviously, we've seen -- as you say, we've seen the first device available in smartphones based on EUV already. We've got a lot of prep work going on for 5-nanometer next year. What is the kind of visibility that you're getting from your customers, lead customers, in both logic foundry as we go into 2020 and beyond? What are the next big puts and takes as we think about the next couple of years for the foundry customers, especially foundry / Logic ?
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Roger J. M. Dassen, ASML Holding N.V. - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board [3]
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I think foundry-Logic is -- has been strong this year, and we think continues to be strong and because the underpinnings are strong, right? If you just look at -- if you look at the dynamics and the key drivers for the Logic business, we believe they're very strong. And we all know the code word for that, so it's about 5G. 5G, obviously, being a big catalyst for Logic and for foundry. 5G, not just on the devices but also, for instance, on what's happening in the base stations, right? I think that's something that not everyone recognizes, but when TSMC talked about the big order intake that they have for 7 nanometers -- for 5 nanometers, they explicitly referenced base stations for 5G, which so far, if you look at 4G, it was always a very mature node. And now you see with 5G that it's actually -- that there's a healthy chunk of advanced node semiconductors going into those base stations. So there's a number of different drivers on 5G, anything associated with artificial intelligence, high-performance compute. So there is a number of key drivers that fundamentally underpin the continued growth. And if we talk to our customers, we all see them at different stages of maturity, if you like, of introducing EUV into their process. But they're all pretty confident that it's -- EUV is going to be a big driver for them, and the demand seems to be strong.
So 2020 is clear. We talked about 2020 in terms of EUV. We talked about 35 systems for 2020. There might be potential for a little bit more but at least 35 is what we've been indicating for 2020. And most of that, by the way, will be Logic.
And then also, when we look into 2021 for EUV, we think 2021 is going to be a pretty busy year for us because at that stage, you would see a combination of, on the one hand, the EUV assertion into DRAM really taking effect. But also 2021, if you look at the node transitions, and you already referenced them, I think Intel 7-nanometer, Samsung, RBC and also TSMC, the start of 3-nanometer. So there's -- you see that the technology changes, and the node cadences for all of the customers are such that we believe 2021 is going to be a very big year for us from an EUV perspective.
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Achal Sultania, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Director [4]
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When we think about all these node transitions, obviously, there's a lot of work going on that you do with all your lead customers. What are some of -- there's still things that you're trying to resolve incorporating with them, whether it's about tool product productivity, whether it's about up time? What are the things that you're working on as you go into 2020? What are things that we can track as an outsider? Any color on that would be like...
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Roger J. M. Dassen, ASML Holding N.V. - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board [5]
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Yes. So I think you nailed it. I think it's productivity, it's availability and maybe a few words on the ecosystem, but productivity and availability are the ones that are primarily within our own control. And clearly, those are the 2 areas that we need to further advance and are working with our customers on that. So as you know, this year, we introduced the C model, the 3400C, which took wafer per hour productivity from 125 to 170, so I think that was a very meaningful uptick, and it also resulted, as you know, in an increase in ASP of approximately the same percentage, approximately 30%. And that was a big driver and that was also what is needed. And again, we talked about DRAM and DRAM insertion. That was also what was needed in order for DRAM customers to really understand what the potential for EUV insertion into DRAM could be.
So I think that's important. We have continued road map to further increase productivity on 2 fronts. On the one hand, we're going to introduce -- in 2021, we're going to introduce the successor to the 3400C. And again, there you will see an uptick in productivity -- meaningful uptick. But also for those customers that have earlier versions of the tools so like a 3400B, we provide packages that will allow them to upgrade those tools to higher productivity levels. For instance, we have a few upgrade packages to upgrade a 3400B, and the most common package that we think customers will take will take the productivity from a 3400B from 125 to 155. So that's a meaningful increase, and that package will be available early next year, and we think that will generate a healthy revenue for us from field-to-field upgrades.
So that's the productivity side, and that's critical because, obviously, that drives the economics of our customers in the fab.
The second element I referenced is availability, and availability is something that, of course, is of importance to our customers. I think for high-volume manufacturing, I think, for most of our customers, it's important that we get availability to 90% and up. We have that in some places, but I wouldn't say that we have that across the board and that we have that across the entire installed base for EUV, so there's still some work to be done. Again, there, I think the introduction of the 3400C model was a significant breakthrough because the serviceability of that tool is much better than the B tool. And just to give you one example, 2 of the features that we introduced on the C model, one is the, what we call, the modular vessel, which, in essence, means that swapping the vessel, and the vessel is the vacuum chamber in which, in essence, the light -- the extreme ultraviolet light is being created, that vessel and particularly one element in the vessel, the collector, needs to be cleaned once in a while. And right now, swapping that takes 7 days. So it takes 7 days to take out the old one and put in a new one. In the new model, that will be less than one shift. It will be approximately 7 hours. So that's a meaningful reduction of the service time and the downtime, the planned downtime of such a tool. So that's one element. The second element is the in-line refill of the tin. As you know, tin is required to generate the extreme ultraviolet light. And by providing in-line refill rather than having a container within the system, that, again, will also significantly result in an uptick in availability. If you take those 2 together, they would result in an increase of availability of approximately 5 to 6 percentage points. So that's a meaningful progress on that front. And that should meaningfully get us to this objective of having, across the board and across the entire portfolio, 90%-plus availability.
Last comment that everyone is working on is, what I would call, the ecosystem. If you listen to our customers today, I think their confidence level in general on EUV has risen significantly. And again, I think the 23 orders that we recorded in Q3, I think, is testament to that. I think ecosystem is part of that. If you had asked our customers even a year ago, "Where are you on pellicle? Where are you on inspection? Where are you on mask? Where are you on photoresist?" They would say, "Good progress is being made, let's say, we still want to see progress before we're really confident that we can take this into high-volume manufacturing." I think if you talk to our customers today, they would probably have tick marks against all of those objectives. And that's what allowed -- that's what has allowed the EUV to go into high-volume manufacturing as we've seen it. Of course, with any new node that we're going into, any new model, all of those factors need to be in place, but I think we're working well with the entire ecosystem to actually get that done.
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Achal Sultania, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Director [6]
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Great. Thinking about memory market. Obviously, as you said, Logic has been surprisingly positive this year. Memory has been down more than expected. I think Peter said on the last call that just keep following the memory prices to figure out when the market will recover. We've already seen some kind of stabilization in NAND pricing in the last few weeks. Are you getting any sign of confidence from your customers on the memory side of things as we plan ahead for 2020? Or still early days?
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Roger J. M. Dassen, ASML Holding N.V. - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board [7]
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So confidence is when the customers are going to knock on our door and say, "We need those tools and we need them tomorrow," which I think is going to happen at some stage when the recovery is there because typically, that's the way it's been going. They hold off on ordering, hold off, hold off and hold off until it's also obvious that the market snaps back, and then the tickets to Veldhoven are being booked and people are knocking on our door. So we try to be a little bit -- we try to anticipate that a little bit better, obviously. Pricing is one element. I think we can all look at the price points, we can all look at the spot prices, and we can have all have our own observations on that.
One other thing that we're gauging and that we think is particularly relevant is the utilization of our tools. And what we've seen there in the past couple of quarters is we've seen significantly the utilization of the tools come down, both on DRAM and on NAND, on NAND, even more so than on DRAM. And I think recently, and I think we were able to report that in Q3, at the very least, we could see that it's stabilizing and that it no longer comes down. And actually, you see some spotty evidence of it actually picking up. And I think that's what we need to see. We need -- you need -- we need to see a sustained pickup in the utilization of our tools. And then you have to recognize that first customers can eat into that little buffer that has been created as a result of this underutilization of the tool. And then once that's the case, then when they really need the new tool. So that's the dynamic that we're watching for. Again, we see an uptick, but it's not so sustained that I can now say we're definitely going to see an increase in Q1. To us, if you look at the fundamentals of the memory market, we think there is nothing wrong with the demand for memory, particularly for DRAM. The underpinnings there are healthy. If you look at the hyperscalers, if you look at the DRAM demand that should follow the Logic demand, particularly on 5G and AI, et cetera, I think the fundamental underpinnings are healthy, but there is a disbalance in the market that has originated for all the good reasons that I think we're all intimately familiar with, and that needs to work its way out of the system. We think that will -- it's very likely that, that will be the case in 2020. So we think that, that recovery will be there in 2020 and will be noticeable for us in 2020. Exactly when it's going to be, it's still too early for us to comment on that.
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Achal Sultania, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Director [8]
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And when we think about that recovery, and obviously, you've got more exposure on memory with your emerging tools, with logic foundry, it's -- EUV is obviously becoming more prominent. I think if you look at your emerging tool number, you're probably going to end up with somewhere around maybe closer to 80 units tools for this year. How should we think about those 2 aspects for your emergent business going forward as more and more logic foundry customers start using EUV and then memory, obviously, starts to come back at some point during 2020? Like, is there, like, a long -- like, how should we think about that opportunity over the next 2 years on emerging side of things?
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Roger J. M. Dassen, ASML Holding N.V. - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board [9]
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Yes. So I think it is fair to assume that over time, immersion will go down because there is some kind of replacement of immersion tools by EUV, that's what is happening. And for the people that were at the Capital Markets Day that we had last year, we -- as you might know, we modeled there some 2025 scenarios. And we did recognize that it's reasonable to assume in a moderate market growth scenario that we would still have around 45-ish immersion tools by 2025. So coming from the 80-ish that you referred to that we would have this year, it's not like a total collapse, but it would be that it goes down and that it's being replaced by EUV. So that is happening, and that we think will be a bit of a gradual thing, both on Logic and on memory. So that will happen. And of course, that will also have a little bit of an impact on 2020. So the -- so 2020 Logic, we think, is strong as evidenced by the 35 or even a little plus over that EUV tools that we talked about. We think that will, once again, be a healthy immersion demand from Logic. But you're right, I mean, the swing factor is memory. So immersion is important in memory. So to the extent that we see the memory market and particularly the DRAM market coming back, that would have a good -- that would result in a healthy uptick for our DPV business as well in 2020. So that's the swing factor, really. So we think next year, 2020, will be a growth year. If you look at the healthy demand for EUV, if you look at the potential that we're going to have in 2020 for field upgrades, and as I mentioned, we have upgrade packages available, both for EUV and for DPV, we'll see an uptick in our EUV services revenue for 2020. So there's a number of good drivers as a result of which we're fairly confident that 2020 will be a growth year. How much of a growth year? Really, the swing factor there is the memory business and then particularly its impact both on the immersion sales and also a little bit on EV.
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Achal Sultania, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Director [10]
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I think you bring up that services point, which, obviously, is becoming more and more important for ASML. I think you had the older business model where you were not closely tied to the productivity. Now with EUV, you are getting more and more tied to the productivity that your customers get. How's that business model changing? And how's been the feedback from your customers on that change with EUV?
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Roger J. M. Dassen, ASML Holding N.V. - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board [11]
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Yes. So the main driver -- or the main change in the business model in EUV service is that rather than us sending invoices for time and material, we're now, essentially, with most of our customers, we're entering into -- we enter into a model where we get a fixed amount per wafer output that they have. So for any wafer output they have, we get a fixed amount. And for that, we would then execute the normal service and maintenance of a tool. The reason that our customers actually like that model is because it provides an incentive to us to make sure that their productivity is up, right because to the extent that they produce more, we get more, right? So that's a big incentive. And also, indirectly, to drive service costs down because, again, if we drive service costs down, then it also means that the availability of the tool will be up. So therefore, customers like it because their interests and our interests are aligned. So that's why we think this model is attractive and actually was attractive to a few customers that also signed up for that model.
This year, that model doesn't create a great gross margin for us. As a matter of fact, this year, we have a negative gross margin because on the one hand, we have significant service crews out there at our customers, really helping them go into high-volume manufacturing. So that's on the cost side, we have significant teams out there. On the revenue side because wafer output is still so low because high-volume manufacturing is only recently kicking in, so the revenue is fairly low. So this year, it's not working extremely well, which we all recognize would be the case. For 2020, I think we'll approach a breakeven situation, probably not in full, but we will approach it -- at least we will approach that point. From 2021, we're going to make money on that. And we make money essentially based on 3 drivers there: first off, revenue will go up because wafer output will go up; second, because of the scale effect because, of course, it makes a big difference in terms of the man-machine ratio, it makes a big difference if you have a team in a fab of 20 tools versus a fab of 2 tools, obviously, you have the scale effect of the man-to-machine ratio; and the third element is we actually, obviously, get better at this. So we already observed this year a big learning curve effect, and of course, that will continue in 2020 and beyond that. So this year, negative gross margin, next year approaching but not quite a breakeven situation. 2021, we're going to make money on that. And ultimately, it should allow us to make a healthy growth margin on this that should ultimately more or less get us for the entire installed base revenue to the corporate gross margin.
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Achal Sultania, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Director [12]
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So is it fair to assume that as EUV scales up, the kind of services margins that you make on EUV could actually be similar to what you do on DPUV today? Or because the business model has changed, the gross margin profile eventually is not going to be similar to what you do today?
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Roger J. M. Dassen, ASML Holding N.V. - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board [13]
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So if you look at the gross margin that we have on the installed base revenue, and you can actually see it's -- from our financials, it's actually below the corporate gross margin, where I would argue that over time, we need to drive that up to about our corporate gross margin. So that's not just for EUV, it's also for the DPV. I would say that in the mix of regular service and maintenance work and the field upgrades because that's the mix that gets represented under installed base revenue, I think the ambition should be for that mix to be around the corporate gross margin, and that's the goal that we have over time. That will not be done in a year's time, but I would say, well before 2025. That's the objective that we have, and that's where we want to land. And it's important because, over time, as some of you might recall, our ambition is for installed base revenue to be about 30% of the total revenue that we have in 2025. And if that's the case, then you've got to make sure that's the gross margin that you enjoy and that represents or is similar to the gross margin that we have for the entire business.
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Achal Sultania, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Director [14]
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And then again, looking at the second aspect of gross margin on the systems side, obviously, again, EUV has been a headwind there. I think now you're making some real improvements with the C tool introduction. How should we think about ramp-up of EUV systems gross margin over the next couple of years, like 3, 4 years? How long does it take to actually get to DUV kind of levels? I think in DUV, you probably make 50s -- low to mid-50% gross margins. So there's still a big gap that you have to bridge from EUV C tool today to where you are long term, well over 50%. What are the big building blocks in trying to bridge that gross margin gap?
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Roger J. M. Dassen, ASML Holding N.V. - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board [15]
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So the big building blocks. Well, it starts with the ASP. I mean, that's the single biggest driver. And the best way to drive ASP increase is obviously with the introduction of a new tool because the way -- as you know, the way we work with our customers, we look at the incremental value that a tool provides, and then we price the tool in such a way that the customer still gets more value out of it than is represented by the ASP increase. But if we continue to drive value for the customer, that results in a big uptick in ASP. So when we went from the 3400B tool to C, we had a wafer per hour increase from 125 to 170 so about 30% increase there, and we were also able to record an increase of 30% in the ASP. It's not that simple because the value that we provide to the customer is a combination of increased wafer per hour, availability, overlay, quality of the imaging, et cetera, et cetera. So there's a number of key drivers that are relevant to us, but there is still this kind of proxy that typically seems to work nicely, that ASP correlates nicely with wafer per hour uptick.
So for 2020, with all of the tools, all of the EV tools that we're going to ship in 2020 being 3400Cs in full configuration, hence, enjoying the full ASP there, for 2020, we think we can get the gross margin up to 40%. We're reducing the cycle time, which is necessary also because if we look at 2021 for instance, we look at a -- what we think is going to be a very busy year. If you look at the impact of EUV insertion into DRAM, we think it's going to be significant. Some of our customers talk about multiple layers of EUV in their 1a. So if you look at that, then -- and if you translate that, then that results in quite a few systems that would be in demand for 2021 and 2022 in particular. That's where it's going to start.
Also, if you look at our Logic customers, if you look at TSMC, if you look at Intel, if you look at Samsung, given the node cadences, if you add it all up, then 2021 will be a very busy year. And we're trying to increase capacity to around 45 to 50 for 2021 in order to be able to cater for the demand. And in that way, obviously, we reduce cycle times, and that reduction of cycle time, obviously, will also lead to less cost on the machine, will lead to a better fixed cost coverage. So on the one hand, we're trying to reduce the cost of the machine. And on the other hand, if we continue to increase the value of the tool to the customers, we will be able to sustain good upticks in ASP. And if you then combine all of that, then I would say that it would be a good aspiration that's starting with the introduction of the successor to the 3400C, which will be second half 2021. I think that's the point in time where it would be a realistic assumption at that stage to see gross margins on the EUV tool, which are going to mimic the gross margins that we enjoy on our better DPV tools.
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Achal Sultania, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Director [16]
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Great. If someone has a question in the audience, happy to take them. Otherwise, I can carry on. Maybe we can talk about the applications business. Obviously, when you had your Analyst Day last year, you talked about the growth potential in metrology in multi-beam business. Can you help us understand where we are? I think some of those -- a couple of things have been slightly pushed out because of some of the issues you had with one of your suppliers. Can you talk about where we are with the progress there? What are the key milestones that we need to hit in 2020? And when can we actually start to see high-volume production on those tools?
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Roger J. M. Dassen, ASML Holding N.V. - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board [17]
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Yes. So maybe more broadly first on applications, and then I'll talk a little bit about metrology and inspection on e-beam. So more broadly, if you talk about the applications business, one element that is in there is the optical-based YieldStar, a metrology and inspection tool. That's actually going very well. So that was a -- that -- they enjoyed a good year in 2019. And also the computational lithography business that we have so the software business, the brine business as some people would still refer to it, that's healthy business and continued on a good pace this year. The e-beam business, so the business that essentially we acquired with the acquisition of HMI was a little disappointing this year, I would say, for 2 reasons. One reason is that, in general, the voltage contrast that e-beam provides is obviously tied very closely to the memory business. And with memory being where it is, the demand for that was flawed. So that's one element. So that's why, in fact, you saw a bit of a contraction there in comparison to last year. But also, you're right, the development of multi-beam is also a little bit delayed. I think most people know the reason. When we started the development of multi-beam, we did it with our favorite partner. But unfortunately, we ran into an IP issue there as a result of which, the technology that they co-owned could not be shared with us. So we figured that out. And as a result of that, we have to start from scratch and essentially, do it on our own. So that led to a delay of, let's say, about 9 months. So that led to rather than multi-beam going into commercial sales in 2020, that will be delayed to 2021. Originally, we were looking at having R&D 3x3 multi-beam shipped to customers in 2019. That will now shift to 2020.
So the first revenues -- the first revenue on multi-beam, we're going to get in 2021. So the good news is the market is still there. You need this, you need multi-beam, we think, when you get to the more advanced nodes, when you get to the patterns that are used in the more advanced nodes. You will need multi-beam because you need that precision. You also need multi-beam because you need the speed. E-beam lacks speed, and therefore, you need multi-beam in the combination of multiple beams, fast stages and computational software. You need that combination in order to be able to meet the speed requirements that you need there in high-volume manufacturing. So the value proposition is still there. The market is still there. The TAM is still there. We're just a little delayed in terms of development and rollout, but it will come.
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Achal Sultania, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Director [18]
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Great. With that, we've run out of time. Thanks again for your time, Roger. Thanks everyone for joining us. Good luck for 2020.
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Roger J. M. Dassen, ASML Holding N.V. - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board [19]
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Thank you. Thank you.
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