ai-8k_20190930.htm

Date of Report (date of earliest event reported): November 8, 2019 (November 7, 2019)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§ 230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§ 240.12b-2 of this chapter).

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Arlington Asset Investment Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release on November 7, 2019 announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2019. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.

The information in Item 2.02 of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 furnished pursuant to Item 9.01, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section. Furthermore, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The Company has posted an updated investor presentation to its website, www.arlingtonasset.com. A copy of the slide presentation is attached as Exhibit 99.2 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information is not deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in filings under the Securities Act of 1933.

The Company reported net loss attributable to common shareholders of $8.5 million, or $0.23 per diluted common share, and non-GAAP core operating income of $6.5 million, or $0.18 per diluted common share, for the quarter ended September 30, 2019. The Company reported book value of $7.35 per common share as of September 30, 2019.

This Current Report on Form 8-K contains “forward-looking statements” made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding future results or expectations about our investments, interest rates, portfolio allocation, dividends, financing agreements, returns on invested capital, investment strategy, taxes, portfolio, earnings, book value, housing market, compensation, growth in capital, agency mortgage-backed security (“MBS”) spreads, prepayments, hedging instruments, duration, cash flow and benefit of deferred tax asset value. Forward-looking statements can be identified by forward-looking language, including words such as “believes,” “anticipates,” “views,” “expects,” “estimates,” “intends,” “may,” “plans,” “projects,” “potential,” “prospective,” “will” and similar expressions, or the negative of these words. Such forward-looking statements are based on facts and conditions as they exist at the time such statements are made. Forward-looking statements are also based on predictions as to future facts and conditions, the accurate prediction of which may be difficult and involve the assessment of events beyond our control. Forward-looking statements are further based on various operating and return assumptions. Caution must be exercised in relying on forward-looking statements. Due to known and unknown risks, actual results may differ materially from expectations or projections. You should carefully consider these risks when you make a decision concerning an investment in our securities, along with the following factors, among others, that may cause our actual results to differ materially from those described in any forward-looking statements: availability of, and our ability to deploy, capital; growing our business primarily through our current strategy of focusing on acquiring primarily agency MBS; our ability to forecast our tax attributes, which are based upon various facts and assumptions, our ability to protect and use our net operating losses and net capital losses to offset future taxable income, including whether our shareholder rights plan will be effective in preventing an ownership change that would significantly limit our ability to utilize such losses; our business, acquisition, leverage, asset allocation, operational, investment, hedging and financing strategies and the success of these strategies; the effect of changes in prepayment rates, interest rates and default rates on our portfolio; the effect of governmental regulation and actions; our ability to roll our repurchase agreements on favorable terms, if at all; our liquidity; our asset valuation policies; our decisions with respect to, and ability to make, future dividends; investing in assets other than MBS or pursuing business activities other than investing in MBS; our ability to maintain our exclusion from the definition of “investment company” under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended; our ability to qualify and maintain our qualification as a real estate investment trust under the Internal Revenue Code; competition for investment opportunities, including competition from the U.S. Department of Treasury and the U.S. Federal Reserve, for investments in agency MBS, as well as the timing of the termination by the U.S. Federal Reserve of its purchases of agency MBS; the federal conservatorship of the Federal National Mortgage Association (“Fannie Mae”) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (“Freddie Mac”) and related efforts, along with any changes in laws and regulations affecting the relationship between Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the federal government; mortgage loan prepayment activity, modification programs and future legislative action; changes in, and success of, our acquisition, hedging and leverage strategies, changes in our asset allocation and changes in our operational policies, all of which may be changed by us without shareholder approval; failure of sovereign or municipal entities to meet their debt obligations or a downgrade in the credit rating of such debt obligations; fluctuations of the value of our hedge instruments; fluctuating quarterly operating results; changes in laws and regulations and industry practices that may adversely affect our business; volatility of the securities markets and activity in the secondary securities markets in the United States and elsewhere; our ability to successfully expand our business into areas other than investing in MBS; changes in, and our ability to remain in compliance with, law, regulations or governmental policies affecting our business; and the factors described in the sections entitled “Risk Factors” in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K, subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and other documents filed by the Company with the SEC

from time to time. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made. New risks and uncertainties arise over time, and it is not possible to predict those events or how they may affect us. Except as required by law, the Company is not obligated to, and does not intend to, update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this Report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

McLean, VA, November 7, 2019 – Arlington Asset Investment Corp. (NYSE: AI) (the “Company” or “Arlington”) today reported net loss attributable to common shareholders of $8.5 million, or $0.23 per diluted common share, and non-GAAP core operating income of $6.5 million, or $0.18 per diluted common share, for the quarter ended September 30, 2019. A reconciliation of non-GAAP core operating income to GAAP net income (loss) before income taxes appears at the end of this press release.

“Conditions in the third quarter were challenging for levered agency mortgage-backed security (“MBS”) investments as the continued flattening of the interest rate curve as well as elevated prepayment speeds compressed net interest spread returns,” said J. Rock Tonkel, Jr., the Company's President and Chief Executive Officer. “In response, the Company took several steps to navigate through this investment environment. First, the Company lowered its prepayment risk exposure by shifting its agency MBS investment portfolio towards both lower coupon securities and specified agency MBS with loan collateral that have favorable prepayment characteristics. Second, the Company took advantage of the favorable rates available in the interest rate swap market by increasing its notional amount of short-term interest rate swaps to lock into a lower current net cost of funding than what was then available in the repo funding market. In addition, the Federal Reserve’s actions since the start of the third quarter to lower short-term interest rates and provide liquidity to the repo markets have improved current funding rates and conditions materially. While net spread pressures remain, since the start of the fourth quarter, a steeper interest rate curve, lower funding rates and slightly wider agency MBS spreads have led to higher returns on new investment opportunities today for the Company and its shareholders.”

As of September 30, 2019, the Company’s agency MBS investment portfolio totaled $4,113 million in fair value, consisting of $4,013 million of specified agency MBS and $100 million of net long to-be-announced (“TBA”) agency MBS. As of September 30, 2019, the Company’s $4,113 million agency MBS investment portfolio was comprised of the following:

As of September 30, 2019, the Company’s $4,013 million specified agency MBS portfolio had a weighted average amortized cost basis of $103.39 and a weighted average market price of $104.47. The Company’s fixed-rate agency MBS are comprised of securities backed by specified pools of mortgage loans selected for their lower propensity for prepayment. Weighted average pay-up premiums on the Company’s agency MBS portfolio, which represent the estimated price premium of agency MBS backed by specified pools over a generic TBA agency MBS, were approximately 1.25 percentage points as of September 30, 2019, compared to 2 percentage points as of June 30, 2019. Overall, pay-up premiums on fixed-rate agency MBS increased during the third quarter of 2019 due to higher prepayment expectations as a result of the decline in mortgage rates; however, the Company’s total weighted average pay-up premiums on its agency MBS portfolio declined during the third quarter of 2019 due to the Company reallocating its concentration of fixed-rate agency MBS toward lower coupon securities which generally carry lower pay-up premiums compared to higher coupon securities.

As of September 30, 2019, the Company had $3,698 million of repurchase agreements outstanding with a weighted average rate of 2.35% and remaining weighted average maturity of 22 days secured by an aggregate of $3,891 million of agency MBS at fair value. The Company’s “at risk” short-term recourse financing to investable capital ratio was 9.9 to 1 as of September 30, 2019 compared to 9.1 to 1 as of June 30, 2019. The Company’s “at risk” short-term recourse financing to investable capital is measured as the ratio of the sum of the Company’s repurchase agreement financing, net payable or receivable for unsettled securities and net contractual price of TBA commitments less cash and cash equivalents compared to the Company’s investable capital measured as the sum of the Company’s shareholders’ equity and long-term unsecured debt.

GAAP net interest income was $4.7 million for the third quarter of 2019 compared to $6.6 million for the second quarter of 2019, including the amortization of the Company’s net premium on its agency MBS of $7.4 million for the third quarter of 2019 compared to $7.2 million for the second quarter of 2019. The Company’s weighted average yield on its agency MBS was 2.96% for the third quarter of 2019 compared to 3.21% for the second quarter of 2019, and the actual weighted-average constant prepayment rate (“CPR”) for the Company’s agency MBS was 12.85% for the third quarter of 2019 compared to 10.16% for the second quarter of 2019. The Company’s weighted average cost of repurchase agreement funding was 2.46% during the third quarter of 2019 compared to 2.64% during the second quarter of 2019.

The Company enters into various hedging transactions to mitigate the interest rate sensitivity of its cost of borrowing and the value of its agency MBS portfolio including interest rate swap agreements, U.S. Treasury note futures, put and call options on 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures, and options on agency MBS. Under GAAP, the Company has not designated these transactions as hedging instruments for financial reporting purposes and therefore all gains and losses on its hedging instruments are recorded as net investment gains and losses in the Company’s financial statements.

Under the terms of the Company’s interest rate swap agreements, the Company pays semiannual interest payments based on a fixed rate and receives quarterly variable interest payments based upon the prevailing three-month London Interbank Offered Rate (“LIBOR”) on the date of reset. As of September 30, 2019, the Company had $3,000 million in notional amount of interest rate swap agreements with a weighted average pay fixed rate of 1.83% and a remaining weighted average maturity of 3.4 years. The Company’s weighted average net receive rate of its interest rate swap agreements was 0.52% during the third quarter of 2019 compared to 0.50% during the second quarter of 2019.

As of September 30, 2019, the total notional amount of the Company’s interest rate swaps was 79% of the Company’s outstanding repurchase agreement funding and net TBA purchase commitments with a net duration gap of zero.

The Company reported TBA dollar roll income of $0.9 million for the third quarter of 2019 compared to $2.0 million for the second quarter of 2019. The implied weighted-average net interest spread of the Company’s TBA dollar rolls was 0.93% for the third quarter of 2019 compared to 0.84% for the second quarter of 2019. TBA dollar roll income is considered the economic equivalent of investing in agency MBS financed with a repurchase agreement and is calculated as the price discount of a forward-settling purchase of a TBA agency MBS relative to the “spot” sale of the same security. Under GAAP, the Company accounts for its TBA commitments as derivative instruments and recognizes income from TBA dollar rolls as a component of net investment gains and losses in the Company’s financial statements.

Economic net interest income was $10.1 million for the third quarter of 2019 compared to $12.3 million for the second quarter of 2019. Economic net interest income is comprised of net interest income determined in accordance with GAAP, TBA dollar roll income and net interest income or expense from interest rate swaps. Economic net interest income is a non-GAAP financial measure that is described later in this press release.

Excluding TBA dollar roll income, the Company had net investment gains on its investment portfolio of $19.2 million for the third quarter of 2019. On its related interest rate hedging instruments, the Company had net investment losses of $32.8 million, excluding

interest rate swap net interest income. This results in a net investment loss on the Company’s hedged investment portfolio of $13.6 million, or $0.37 per diluted common share, for the third quarter of 2019.

The Company’s Board of Directors approved a distribution to common shareholders of $0.225 per share for the third quarter of 2019. The distribution was paid on October 31, 2019 to shareholders of record as of September 30, 2019. The Company’s Board of Directors also approved distributions to its Series B and Series C preferred shareholders of $0.4375 per share and $0.515625 per share, respectively, for the third quarter of 2019. The distributions were paid on September 30, 2019 to shareholders of record as of September 18, 2019.

The tax characterization of the Company’s distributions to shareholders is determined and reported to shareholders on Form 1099-DIV after the end of the calendar year.

Commencing with its taxable year ending December 31, 2019, the Company intends to elect and operate in a manner that will allow it to qualify as a REIT for U.S. federal income tax purposes. As a REIT, distributions to shareholders will generally be taxable as ordinary income that are not eligible to be taxed as qualified dividends. However, a portion of such distributions may be designated as long-term capital gain dividends to the extent that such portion is attributable to the Company’s sale of capital assets held for more than one year. Non-corporate taxpayers may deduct up to 20% of dividends received from a REIT that are not designated as capital gain dividends or qualified dividend income, subject to certain limitations. Distributions in excess of the Company’s current and accumulated earnings and profits will be treated as a tax-free return of capital to the extent of each shareholder’s tax basis in the Company’s stock and as capital gain thereafter.

The Company will hold a conference call for investors at 9:00 A.M. Eastern Time on Friday, November 8, 2019 to discuss the Company’s third quarter 2019 results.

Investors may listen to the earnings call via the internet at: http://www.arlingtonasset.com/index.php?s=19. Replays of the earnings call will be available for 60 days via webcast at the Internet address provided above, beginning two hours after the call ends.

The Company will make available additional quarterly information for the benefit of its shareholders through a supplemental presentation that will be available at the Company's website, www.arlingtonasset.com. The presentation will be available on the Webcasts and Presentations section located under the Updates & Events tab of the Company's website.

Arlington Asset Investment Corp. (NYSE: AI) currently invests primarily in mortgage-related and other assets and intends to qualify to be taxed as a REIT commencing with its taxable year ending December 31, 2019. The Company is headquartered in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area. For more information, please visit www.arlingtonasset.com.

Statements concerning interest rates, portfolio allocation, financing costs, portfolio hedging, prepayments, dividends, book value, utilization of loss carryforwards, any change in long-term tax structures (including any REIT election), use of equity raise proceeds and any other guidance on present or future periods constitute forward-looking statements that are subject to a number of factors, risks and uncertainties that might cause actual results to differ materially from stated expectations or current circumstances. These factors include, but are not limited to, changes in interest rates, increased costs of borrowing, decreased interest spreads, changes in political and monetary policies, changes in default rates, changes in prepayment rates and other assumptions underlying our estimates related to our projections of future core earnings, changes in the Company’s returns, changes in the use of the Company’s tax benefits, the Company’s ability to qualify and maintain qualification as a REIT, changes in the agency MBS asset yield, changes in the Company’s monetization of net operating loss carryforwards, changes in the Company’s ability to generate cash earnings and dividends, preservation and utilization of the Company’s net operating loss and net capital loss carryforwards, impacts of changes to and changes by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, actions taken by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the U.S. Treasury, availability of opportunities that meet or exceed the Company’s risk adjusted return expectations, ability and willingness to make future dividends, ability to generate sufficient cash through retained earnings to satisfy capital needs, and general economic, political, regulatory and market conditions. These and other material risks are described in the Company's most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and any other documents filed by the Company with the SEC from time to time, which are available from the Company and from the SEC, and

you should read and understand these risks when evaluating any forward-looking statement. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made. New risks and uncertainties arise over time, and it is not possible to predict those events or how they may affect the Company. Except as required by law, the Company is not obligated to, and does not intend to, update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

	September 30, 2019			June 30, 2019
ASSETS
Cash and cash equivalents	$	12,129		$	34,684
Interest receivable		11,684			12,471
Sold securities receivable		—			546,106
Mortgage-backed securities, at fair value
Agency		4,013,161			3,414,580
Private-label		25			26
Derivative assets, at fair value		675			6,243
Deposits		43,298			31,247
Other assets		18,566			18,535
Total assets	$	4,099,538		$	4,063,892
LIABILITIES AND EQUITY
Liabilities:
Repurchase agreements	$	3,697,906		$	3,531,539
Interest payable		3,356			3,336
Accrued compensation and benefits		3,502			2,436
Dividend payable		8,397			8,392
Derivative liabilities, at fair value		724			3,131
Purchased securities payable		—			113,019
Other liabilities		3,204			3,534
Long-term unsecured debt		74,272			74,216
Total liabilities		3,791,361			3,739,603
Equity:
Preferred stock (liquidation preference of $38,851)		37,227			37,240
Common stock		368			366
Additional paid-in capital		2,048,423			2,047,616
Accumulated deficit		(1,777,841	)		(1,760,933	)
Total equity		308,177			324,289
Total liabilities and equity	$	4,099,538		$	4,063,892
Book value per common share ⁽¹⁾	$	7.35		$	7.80
Common shares outstanding (in thousands) ⁽²⁾		36,627			36,578

(1) Book value per common share is calculated as total equity less the preferred stock liquidation preference divided by common shares outstanding.

(2) Represents common shares outstanding plus vested restricted stock units convertible into common stock less unvested restricted common stock.

	Three Months Ended
	September 30, 2019			June 30, 2019			March 31, 2019			December 31, 2018
Interest income
Agency mortgage-backed securities	$	28,455		$	32,275		$	33,570		$	36,914
Private-label mortgage-backed securities		4			14			1			4
Other		215			428			261			256
Total interest income		28,674			32,717			33,832			37,174
Interest expense
Short-term secured debt		22,721			24,866			24,643			25,286
Long-term unsecured debt		1,261			1,269			1,272			1,264
Total interest expense		23,982			26,135			25,915			26,550
Net interest income		4,692			6,582			7,917			10,624
Investment advisory fee income		—			—			250			—
Investment (loss) gain, net
Gain on trading investments, net		16,890			42,239			69,168			32,591
Loss from derivative instruments, net		(25,353	)		(69,072	)		(55,205	)		(101,483	)
Other, net		232			150			(160	)		(18	)
Total investment (loss) gain, net		(8,231	)		(26,683	)		13,803			(68,910	)
General and administrative expenses
Compensation and benefits		2,833			2,233			3,116			395
Other general and administrative expenses		1,365			1,191			1,260			1,263
Total general and administrative expenses		4,198			3,424			4,376			1,658
(Loss) income before income taxes		(7,737	)		(23,525	)		17,594			(59,944	)
Income tax benefit		—			—			—			(33,639	)
Net (loss) income		(7,737	)		(23,525	)		17,594			(26,305	)
Dividend on preferred stock		(774	)		(774	)		(278	)		(153	)
Net (loss) income (attributable) available to common stock	$	(8,511	)	$	(24,299	)	$	17,316		$	(26,458	)
Basic (loss) earnings per common share	$	(0.23	)	$	(0.67	)	$	0.52		$	(0.87	)
Diluted (loss) earnings per common share	$	(0.23	)	$	(0.67	)	$	0.52		$	(0.87	)
Weighted average common shares outstanding (in thousands)
Basic		36,572			36,533			33,053			30,392
Diluted		36,572			36,533			33,139			30,392

In addition to the Company’s results of operations determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles as consistently applied in the United States (“GAAP”), the Company also reports “non-GAAP core operating income.” The Company defines core operating income as “economic net interest income” and investment advisory fee income less “core general and administrative expenses” and preferred stock dividends.

Economic net interest income, a non-GAAP financial measure, represents the interest income earned net of interest expense incurred from all of our interest bearing financial instruments as well as the agency MBS which underlie, and are implicitly financed through, our TBA dollar roll transactions. Economic net interest income is comprised of the following:

In the Company’s consolidated statements of comprehensive income prepared in accordance with GAAP, TBA agency MBS dollar roll income and the net interest income earned or expense incurred from interest rate swap agreements are reported as a component of the overall periodic change in the fair value of derivative instruments within the line item “gain (loss) from derivative instruments, net” of the “investment gain (loss), net” section. We believe that economic net interest income assists investors in understanding and evaluating the financial performance of the Company’s long-term-focused, net interest spread-based investment strategy, prior to the deduction of core general and administrative expenses.

Core general and administrative expenses are non-interest expenses reported within the line item “total general and administrative expenses” of the consolidated statements of comprehensive income less stock-based compensation expense and non-recurring expense. For the three months ended September 30, 2019, core general and administrative expense exclude a non-recurring expense related to a one-time out-of-period payment made in the third quarter of 2019 for a business, professional and occupation license tax from Arlington County, Virginia for the 2018 tax year.

The following table presents the Company’s computation of economic net interest income and core operating income for the last four fiscal quarters (unaudited, amounts in thousands, except per share amounts):

	Three Months Ended
	September 30, 2019			June 30, 2019			March 31, 2019			December 31, 2018
GAAP net interest income	$	4,692		$	6,582		$	7,917		$	10,624
TBA dollar roll income		923			1,995			1,420			2,940
Interest rate swap net interest income		4,445			3,769			4,747			2,304
Economic net interest income		10,060			12,346			14,084			15,868
Investment advisory fee income		—			—			250			—
Core general and administrative expenses		(2,797	)		(3,207	)		(3,603	)		(2,324	)
Preferred stock dividend		(774	)		(774	)		(278	)		(153	)
Non-GAAP core operating income	$	6,489		$	8,365		$	10,453		$	13,391

Non-GAAP core operating income per diluted common share	$	0.18		$	0.23		$	0.32		$	0.44
Weighted average diluted common shares outstanding		36,751			36,644			33,139			30,437

The following table provides a reconciliation of GAAP pre-tax net income (loss) to non-GAAP core operating income for the last four fiscal quarters (unaudited, amounts in thousands):

	Three Months Ended
	September 30, 2019			June 30, 2019			March 31, 2019			December 31, 2018
GAAP (loss) income before income taxes	$	(7,737	)	$	(23,525	)	$	17,594		$	(59,944	)
Add (less):
Total investment loss (gain), net		8,231			26,683			(13,803	)		68,910
Stock-based compensation expense		913			217			773			(666	)
Preferred stock dividend		(774	)		(774	)		(278	)		(153	)
Non-recurring expense		488			—			—			—
Add back:
TBA dollar roll income		923			1,995			1,420			2,940
Interest rate swap net interest income		4,445			3,769			4,747			2,304
Non-GAAP core operating income	$	6,489		$	8,365		$	10,453		$	13,391

Non-GAAP core operating income is used by management to evaluate the financial performance of the Company’s long-term investment strategy and core business activities over periods of time as well as assist with the determination of the appropriate level of periodic dividends to common stockholders. The Company believes that non-GAAP core operating income assists investors in understanding and evaluating the financial performance of the Company’s long-term investment strategy and core business activities over periods of time as well as its earnings capacity. A limitation of utilizing this non-GAAP financial measure is that the effect of accounting for “non-core” events or transactions in accordance with GAAP does, in fact, reflect the financial results of our business and these effects should not be ignored when evaluating and analyzing our financial results. For example, the economic cost or benefit of hedging instruments other than interest rate swap agreements, such as U.S. Treasury note futures or options on U.S. Treasury note futures, do not affect the computation of non-GAAP core operating income. In addition, the Company’s calculation of non-GAAP core operating income may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures of other companies. Therefore, the Company believes that net income and comprehensive income determined in accordance with GAAP should be considered in conjunction with non-GAAP core operating income. Furthermore, there may be differences between non-GAAP core operating income and taxable income determined in accordance with the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, the Company will be required to distribute at least 90% of its REIT taxable income (subject to certain adjustments) to qualify as a REIT and all of its taxable income in order to not be subject to any U.S. Federal or state corporate income taxes. Accordingly, non-GAAP core operating income may not equal the Company’s distribution requirements as a REIT.

The following tables present information on the Company’s investment and hedge portfolio as of September 30, 2019 (unaudited, dollars in thousands):

	Unpaid Principal Balance		Net Unamortized Purchase Premiums		Amortized Cost Basis		Net Unrealized Gain (Loss)			Fair Value		Market Price		Coupon			Weighted Average Expected Remaining Life
30-year fixed rate:
2.5%	$	73,009	$	798	$	73,807	$	(674	)	$	73,133	$	100.17		2.50	%		9.1
3.0%		808,462		21,109		829,571		(3,082	)		826,489		102.23		3.00	%		7.0
3.5%		1,293,792		38,904		1,332,696		8,948			1,341,644		103.70		3.50	%		5.0
4.0%		1,226,631		48,677		1,275,308		24,444			1,299,752		105.96		4.00	%		4.8
4.5%		439,456		20,573		460,029		12,100			472,129		107.43		4.50	%		4.3
5.5%		12		—		12		2			14		112.39		5.50	%		5.2
Total/weighted-average	$	3,841,362	$	130,061	$	3,971,423	$	41,738		$	4,013,161	$	104.47		3.65	%		5.4

			Weighted-average:
	Notional Amount		Fixed Pay Rate			Variable Receive Rate			Net Receive (Pay) Rate			Remaining Life (Years)
Years to maturity:
Less than 3 years	$	2,175,000		1.73	%		2.19	%		0.46	%		1.7
3 to less than 7 years		500,000		1.62	%		2.12	%		0.50	%		6.3
7 to less than 10 years		300,000		2.85	%		2.16	%		(0.69	)%		9.3
10 or more years		25,000		2.96	%		2.16	%		(0.80	)%		28.5
Total / weighted-average	$	3,000,000		1.83	%		2.17	%		0.34	%		3.4

Information Related to Forward-Looking Statements Statements concerning interest rates, portfolio allocation, financing costs, portfolio hedging, prepayments, dividends, book value, utilization of loss carryforwards, any change in long-term tax structures (including any REIT election) and any other guidance on present or future periods constitute forward-looking statements that are subject to a number of factors, risks and uncertainties that might cause actual results to differ materially from stated expectations or current circumstances. These factors include, but are not limited to, changes in interest rates, increased costs of borrowing, decreased interest spreads, changes in political and monetary policies, changes in default rates, changes in prepayment rates and other assumptions underlying our estimates related to our projections of future core earnings, changes in the Company’s returns, changes in the use of the Company’s tax benefits, changes in the agency MBS asset yield, changes in the Company’s monetization of net operating loss carryforwards, changes in the Company’s ability to generate cash earnings and dividends, preservation and utilization of the Company’s net operating loss and net capital loss carryforwards, impacts of changes to and changes by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, actions taken by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the U.S. Treasury, availability of opportunities that meet or exceed the Company’s risk adjusted return expectations, ability and willingness to make future dividends, ability to generate sufficient cash through retained earnings to satisfy capital needs, and general economic, political, regulatory and market conditions. These and other material risks are described in the Company's most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and any other documents filed by the Company with the SEC from time to time, which are available from the Company and from the SEC, and you should read and understand these risks when evaluating any forward-looking statement. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made. New risks and uncertainties arise over time, and it is not possible to predict those events or how they may affect the Company. Except as required by law, the Company is not obligated to, and does not intend to, update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Contents Third Quarter of 2019 Financial Results and Portfolio Update………………........Slide 3 Appendix – Additional Financial Data…………………………………………………Slide 17

Publicly Traded Capital Class A Common Stock Ticker: AI Exchange: NYSE Market Capitalization: $214 million (1) Annual Dividend Yield: 15.5% (1) Senior Notes Due 2023 Ticker: AIW Exchange: NYSE Per Annum Interest Rate: 6.625% Current Strip Yield per Annum: 8.17%(1)(2) Maturity Date: May 1, 2023 Senior Notes Due 2025 Ticker: AIC Exchange: NYSE Per Annum Interest Rate: 6.75% Current Strip Yield per Annum: 8.08%(1)(2) Maturity Date: March 15, 2025 Series B Cumulative Perpetual Redeemable Preferred Stock Ticker: AI PrB Exchange: NYSE Per Annum Dividend Rate: 7.00% Payable Quarterly Current Strip Yield per Annum: 8.33%(1)(2) As of November 5, 2019. Source: Bloomberg Series C Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock Ticker: AI PrC Exchange: NYSE Per Annum Dividend Rate: 8.25% Payable Quarterly Current Strip Yield per Annum: 9.78%(1)(2)

Company Snapshot Real estate investment trust (“REIT”) focused on securitized residential mortgage assets Currently invest primarily in agency MBS issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac May invest opportunistically in other asset classes High quality liquid assets with substantial interest rate hedges to protect long-term capital that produce predictable cash flows to support consistent dividends to shareholders Internally-managed NYSE Ticker AI Share Price (11/5/19) $5.81 Book Value Per Common Share (9/30/19) $7.35 GAAP Net Loss per Diluted Share (Q3 ‘19) $0.23 Non-GAAP Core Operating Income per Diluted Share (Q3 ‘19) (1) $0.18 Dividend per Common Share (Q3 ‘19) $0.225 Dividend Yield (11/5/19) 15.5% Common Equity Market Cap (11/5/19) $214 million Total Investment Portfolio (9/30/19) $4.1 billion Investable Capital (9/30/19) (2) $382 million A reconciliation of non-GAAP core operating income to GAAP pre-tax income is provided on slide 21. Investable capital represents shareholders’ equity plus long-term unsecured debt.

Third Quarter of 2019 Financial Highlights $0.23 GAAP net loss per diluted common share $0.18 non-GAAP core operating income (1) per diluted common share 9.21% annualized core operating income return on average common equity (2) $0.225 per common share dividend $7.35 book value per common share as of September 30, 2019 Economic return of -2.9% measured as the change in book value per common share plus dividends declared during the quarter Economic net interest income (3) of $10.1 million compared to $12.3 million in the prior quarter Comprised of $4.7 million of GAAP net interest income, $0.9 million of net TBA dollar roll income, and $4.4 million of interest rate swap net interest income. Quarter-over-quarter reduction driven primarily by: a reduction in agency MBS asset yields (2.96% versus 3.21%) due primarily to an increase in prepayment rates (12.85% vs. 10.16%, annualized) and a reallocation from higher to lower coupon bonds a reduction in average leverage and investment portfolio volumes partially offset by a decrease in the weighted average fixed pay rate of interest rate swaps A reconciliation of non-GAAP core operating income to GAAP pre-tax income is provided on slide 21. See slide 14 for further information. Economic net interest income is a non-GAAP financial measure. See slide 13 for further information.

As of September 30, 2019 $4.11 Billion Fair Value As of June 30, 2019 $3.97 Billion Fair Value Agency MBS Investment Portfolio Allocation Specified Pool vs. TBA Allocation (1) Includes the fair value of the agency MBS underlying forward-settling “to-be-announced (“TBA”) purchase or sale commitments that are accounted for as derivative instruments in accordance with GAAP. The difference between the contractual forward price of the Company’s TBA commitments and the fair value of the underlying MBS is reflected on the Company’s consolidated balance sheets as a component of “derivative assets, at fair value” or “derivative liabilities, at fair value.” By Fixed Coupon Rate (1) As of June 30, 2019 As of September 30, 2019

Specified Agency MBS Historical Quarterly Prepayments (2) and GAAP Asset Yield Performance: Q3 2019 GAAP Prepayments and Asset Yield Performance (dollars in thousands): Unpaid principal balance. CPR of equivalent TBA eligible calculated as the average of the outstanding population of all Fannie Mae TBA eligible MBS weighted based on the contractual maturity and coupon composition of AI’s monthly investment portfolio.

To-be-Announced (“TBA”) Agency MBS TBA dollar roll transactions involve delaying, or “rolling,” the settlement of a forward-settling purchase of a TBA agency MBS by entering into an offsetting “spot” sale prior to the settlement date, net settling the “paired-off” positions in cash, and contemporaneously entering another forward-settling purchase of a TBA agency MBS of the same essential characteristics for a later settlement date at a price discount relative to the “spot” sale. Cost basis is based upon the contractual price of the initial TBA purchase trade of each individual series of dollar roll transactions. Asset yield calculated based upon future cash flow estimates obtain from Citi’s the Yield Book, a third-party model, for an illustrative 3.0% coupon specified pool purchased on October 9, 2019. For comparative purposes, assumes agency MBS is 100% financed with a one-month repurchase agreement. TBA dollar roll net interest spread based upon the “price drop” between the November and December settlement of a 3.0% coupon TBA as of October 9, 2019. Source: Bloomberg Q3 2019 Dollar Roll (1) Income (dollars in thousands): Recent Relative TBA Dollar Roll Performance and Historical Monthly Price Drop:

Financing Summary 15 counterparties with access to 18 total counterparties Less than 10% of equity at risk with any one counterparty 7.3% of equity at risk with largest counterparty 28.9% of equity at risk with five largest counterparties Diversified Funding Sources As of September 30, 2019 (dollars in thousands): The Company’s repo agreements generally have one-month terms while the Company receives three-month LIBOR on its interest rate swaps Increases in the spread between three- and one-month LIBOR generally positively impact the Company’s economic funding costs (and vice versa) Repo Rate vs. One-Month LIBOR One-Month vs. Three-Month LIBOR The spread of repo financing rates over one-month LIBOR have increased in recent quarters

Hedging Summary Interest Rate Swaps as of September 30, 2019 (dollars in thousands): Duration is calculated based upon each interest rate swap’s “DV01” (a valuation metric illustrating the dollar value of a one basis point increase in interest rates) as reported by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the clearinghouse through which those instruments were centrally cleared. Duration is a measure of how much the price of an asset or liability is expected to change if interest rates move in a parallel manner.

Well Matched Hedging Can Protect Profitability Though Various Rate Environments Mortgage investment spreads fluctuate based on economic and U.S. Federal Reserve cycles The Company utilizes interest rate swaps to lock into an investment spread for defined period Principal mortgage paydowns are reinvested at current investment spreads Mortgage investment spreads have historically never been negative even in periods of inverted U.S. Treasury yield curves Historical Current Coupon Agency MBS vs. Three-Month LIBOR / 10-Year Swap Blend (50% / 50% Weighted) 150 bps 79 bps on 9/30/2019

Non-GAAP Core Operating Income (1) Core operating income and economic net interest income are non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are used by management to evaluate the financial performance of the Company’s long-term investment strategy and core business activities over periods of time as well as assist with the determination of the appropriate level of periodic dividends to stockholders. The Company believes that non-GAAP core operating income and economic net interest income assist investors in understanding and evaluating the financial performance of the Company’s long-term investment strategy and core business activities over periods of time as well as its earnings capacity. A limitation of utilizing these non-GAAP financial measures is that the effect of accounting for “non-core” events or transactions in accordance with GAAP does, in fact, reflect the financial results of our business and these effects should not be ignored when evaluating and analyzing our financial results. The Company believes that net income and comprehensive income determined in accordance with GAAP should be considered in conjunction with non-GAAP core operating income and economic net interest income. A reconciliation of non-GAAP core operating income to GAAP pre-tax income is provided on slide 21. Non-GAAP Core Operating Income Per Diluted Share Rollforward – Q3 2019 vs. Q2 2019

Core Operating Income Return on Equity Includes interest expense incurred from repurchase agreement financing and net interest income earned or expense incurred from interest rate swaps. Excludes the economic cost or benefit of hedging instruments other than interest rate swaps. Calculated based upon the weighted average balance of repurchase agreement financing for the period multiplied by the ratio of average common equity to average total investable capital (common equity plus preferred equity plus unsecured debt). Expressed as an annualized percentage of average common equity for the period. Expressed as an annualized percentage of average common equity for the period. For example, for the third quarter of 2019, calculated as $0.9 million in dollar roll income (representing an implied net interest spread of 0.93% on a weighted average cost basis of $397 million). All else being equal, as the average balance of the Company’s TBA dollar roll portfolio increases, the calculated annualized return on average common equity will increase (and vice versa). Calculated as [GAAP interest income less repurchase agreement interest expense plus (less) interest rate swap net interest income (expense) plus TBA dollar roll income] multiplied by the ratio of average preferred equity and unsecured debt to average total investable capital. Expressed as an annualized percentage of average common equity for the period. Core general and administrative expenses represent non-interest expenses reported within the line item “total general and administrative expenses” of the consolidated statements of comprehensive income less stock-based compensation expense. Presented net of investment advisory fee income. For the third quarter of 2019, excludes a non-recurring expense related to a one-time out-of-period payment made in that period for a business, professional and occupation license tax from Arlington County, Virginia for the 2018 tax year. Core general and administrative expenses and investment advisory fee income have been allocated to common equity and preferred equity and unsecured debt on a pro rata basis based upon average capital balances for the period.

Portfolio Weighted Average Statistics Includes interest expense incurred from repurchase agreement financing and net interest income earned or expense incurred from interest rate swaps. Excludes the economic cost or benefit of hedging instruments other than interest rate swaps. Calculated as the total of the following, expressed as an annualized percentage of the total agency MBS weighted average cost basis for the period: GAAP interest income from agency MBS, plus TBA dollar roll income, less agency MBS repurchase agreement interest expense, less interest rate swap net interest expense.

Book Value Per Share Rollforward Calculated based upon weighted average diluted shares outstanding during the quarter. Excludes TBA dollar roll income, which is included in non-GAAP core operating income. Excludes net interest income or expense incurred from interest rate swap agreements, which is included in non-GAAP core operating income.

Market Data (1)(2) 30-Year FNMA fixed rate price information is provided for illustrative purposes only and represents generic FNMA TBA prices and is not meant to be reflective of securities held by the Company. Source: Bloomberg

Balance Sheet Represents shares of common stock outstanding plus vested restricted stock units convertible into common stock less unvested restricted common stock. Book value per common share is calculated as total equity less the preferred stock liquidation preference divided by common shares outstanding. Calculated as the sum of repurchase agreement financing, plus (less) any net payable (receivable) for unsettled securities, plus the net contractual forward price of TBA commitments, less cash compared to shareholders’ equity plus long-term unsecured debt.

Non-GAAP Core Operating Income Reconciliation (1) Core operating income and economic net interest income are non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are used by management to evaluate the financial performance of the Company’s long-term investment strategy and core business activities over periods of time as well as assist with the determination of the appropriate level of periodic dividends to stockholders. The Company believes that non-GAAP core operating income and economic net interest income assist investors in understanding and evaluating the financial performance of the Company’s long-term investment strategy and core business activities over periods of time as well as its earnings capacity. A limitation of utilizing these non-GAAP financial measures is that the effect of accounting for “non-core” events or transactions in accordance with GAAP does, in fact, reflect the financial results of our business and these effects should not be ignored when evaluating and analyzing our financial results. The Company believes that net income and comprehensive income determined in accordance with GAAP should be considered in conjunction with non-GAAP core operating income and economic net interest income. Core operating income for the third quarter of 2019 excludes a non-recurring expense related to a one-time out-of-period payment made in that period for a business, professional and occupation license tax from Arlington County, Virginia for the 2018 tax year. Reconciliation of GAAP pre-tax net income to non-GAAP core operating income:

Specified Agency MBS Investment Portfolio Specified pools of loans with original balances of up to $150K. Specified pools of loans with original balances between $150K and $175K. Specified pools of loans with original balances between $175K and $200K. Specified pools of loans with original balances between $200K and $225K. Other specified pools include pools of loans with high loan-to-value ratios, loans for properties in certain geographical areas, loans refinanced through the Home Affordable Refinance Program (“HARP”), low FICO loans, and seasoned loans. Unpaid principal balance. WAC represents the weighted average coupon of the underlying collateral. Loan age represents the weighted average age of the underlying collateral. Actual 3-month constant prepayment rate (“CPR”) represents annualized 3-month CPR published in October 2019 for securities held as of September 30, 2019. Remaining life represents the weighted average expected remaining life of the security based on expected future CPR as estimated by Citi’s “The Yield Book,” a third-party model. Duration is derived from the Citi’s “The Yield Book,” a third-party model. Duration is a measure of how much the price of an asset or liability is expected to change if interest rates move in a parallel manner and is dependent upon several subjective inputs and assumptions. Actual results could differ materially from these estimates. In addition, different models could generate materially different estimates using similar inputs and assumptions. Fixed-Rate Agency MBS Selected for Prepayment Characteristics as of September 30, 2019

TBA Agency MBS Investment Portfolio Net Long TBA Position (1) as of September 30, 2019 (dollars in thousands): Net long position in TBA securities represents forward-settling contracts to purchase or sell agency MBS on a generic pool basis. TBA commitments are accounted for as derivative instruments in accordance with GAAP. The difference between the contractual forward price of the Company’s TBA commitments and the fair value of the underlying MBS is reflected on the Company’s consolidated balance sheets as a component of “derivative assets, at fair value” or “derivative liabilities, at fair value.” Duration is derived from the Citi’s “The Yield Book,” a third-party model. Duration is a measure of how much the price of an asset or liability is expected to change if interest rates move in a parallel manner and is dependent upon several subjective inputs and assumptions. Actual results could differ materially from these estimates. In addition, different models could generate materially different estimates using similar inputs and assumptions.

Duration is derived from the Citi’s “The Yield Book,” a third-party model. Duration is a measure of how much the price of an asset or liability is expected to change if interest rates move in a parallel manner and is dependent upon several subjective inputs and assumptions. Actual results could differ materially from these estimates. In addition, different models could generate materially different estimates using similar inputs and assumptions. Total liability and hedge duration is expressed in asset units. Excludes unsecured debt. Interest rate sensitivity of agency MBS and TBA commitments is derived from The Yield Book, a third-party model. Actual results could differ significantly from these estimates. Interest rate sensitivity is based on assumptions resulting in certain limitations, including (i) an instantaneous shift in rates with no changes to the slope of the yield curve, (ii) no changes in agency MBS spreads, and (iii) no changes to the investment or hedge portfolio. Net Duration Gap as of September 30, 2019 Interest Rate Sensitivity as of September 30, 2019 (3) Book Value Sensitivity to Interest Rates

Agency MBS spread sensitivity is derived from The Yield Book, a third-party model. Actual results could differ significantly from these estimates. The estimated change in book value reflects an assumed spread weighted average duration of 4.5 years, which is a model-based assumption that is dependent upon the size and composition of our portfolio as well as economic conditions present as of September 30, 2019. The agency MBS spread sensitivity is based on assumptions resulting in certain limitations, including (i) no changes in interest rates, and (ii) no changes to the investment or hedge portfolio. MBS Spread Sensitivity as of September 30, 2019 (1) Historical MBS to U.S. Treasury Spread 108 bps 134 bps 95 bps on 9/30/2019 101 bps on 9/30/2019 Book Value Sensitivity to MBS Spreads

		ARLINGTON ASSET INVESTMENT CORP.

Date: November 8, 2019
	By:		/s/ Richard E. Konzmann
	Name:		Richard E. Konzmann
	Title:		Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

	Fair Value
Specified agency MBS	$	4,013,161
Net long agency TBA position		99,593
Total	$	4,112,754

	Notional Amount:
	Net Long (Short) Position			Implied Cost Basis			Implied Fair Value			Net Carrying Amount
2.5% 30-year MBS purchase commitments, net	$	100,000		$	100,273		$	99,593		$	(680	)
3.0% 30-year MBS purchase commitments, net		100,000			101,547			101,563			16
3.0% 30-year MBS sale commitments, net		(100,000	)		(101,953	)		(101,563	)		390
Total TBA commitments, net	$	100,000		$	99,867		$	99,593		$	(274	)

Title of each class	Trading Symbol(s)	Name of each exchange on which registered
Class A Common Stock	AI	NYSE
7.00% Series B Cumulative Perpetual Redeemable Preferred Stock	AI PrB	NYSE
8.250% Series C Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock	AI PrC	NYSE

99.1	Arlington Asset Investment Corp. Press Release dated November 7, 2019.

99.2	Third Quarter 2019 Investor Presentation.