Liberty Interactive Corp, Liberty Broadband Corp and Liberty Media Corp at Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference
Mar 01, 2017 AM EST
FWONA - Liberty Media Corp
Liberty Interactive Corp, Liberty Broadband Corp and Liberty Media Corp at Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference
Mar 01, 2017 / 07:10PM GMT
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Corporate Participants
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* Greg Maffei
Liberty Media - President and CEO
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Conference Call Participants
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* Ben Swinburne
Morgan Stanley - Analyst
* John Frank
Fort Baker Capital - Analyst
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Presentation
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [1]
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We're going to get started. It's still morning, I think. Good morning, it's Ben Swinburne, media and cable analyst and as Greg likes to note, please note that important disclosures including my personal holdings disclosures and Morgan Stanley disclosures, all appear in the handout available.
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [2]
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Do you want to want to talk about those personal holdings now?
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [3]
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Well, as I told you last year, it's mostly [MS], which has done much better than you suggested it will.
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [4]
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It's done better this year. If you're going to elect Trump again couple of times (inaudible) get back to where it was.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [5]
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Definitely not going to do that topic right now. And on the -- Morgan Stanley public website, you need no introduction, but (inaudible) I want to welcome back to the conference, the President and CEO of Liberty Media, Greg Maffei; as well as Liberty Media, Liberty Interactive, Liberty TripAdvisor and Liberty Broadband. Today it's kind of Liberty Day at the conference. We had Jim Meyer already this morning. We've got Charter coming up, Live Nation, we had Trip. So we've got all the bases covered and now we get to hear from you. That's how it's all going to play out and work itself out.
Greg, why don't we start, you just reported earnings yesterday and while we didn't get a look at the numbers, you now have closed the Formula One transaction. We'll give you an opportunity to talk about why you're excited about that business, why you guys decided to put a lot of capital at work and issue a lot of equity to go and now operate a significant global sports franchise?
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [6]
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Well, I think you touched on the last point is where we started. It's a -- really when you think about global sports franchises, it is the -- other than the Olympics and FIFA, it's the broadest one, 21 countries last year, five continents, enormously broad, 400 million TV audience plus, I think an untapped potential in terms of digital that hasn't been done. And frankly, while Bernie Ecclestone deserves massive credit for what he built, the last five years, seven years have been relatively more abound in terms of making it competitive with what other sports franchises are doing today, whether it would be social media, whether it would be the move from free to pay, whether it would be games, whether it would be potential for virtual reality, whether it would be the potential for gaming, there's just a lot of avenues that haven't been touched.
Probably the most obvious one in the short term is sponsorship. We own a baseball team, the Braves, MLB has 80 people working in sponsorship, has 75 sponsors virtually all in the United States. In contrast, Formula One, with its 21 countries has one person working full-time in sponsorship, two people working part time and has 17 sponsors including no technology sponsor, despite the fact we have Ferrari, Mercedes, Red Bull spending [$400 million to $500 million] a year, entirely focused on technology. So it seems like an obvious hole, and there's just other holes along the way, we don't have a (inaudible) sponsor, we don't have (inaudible) list, there's just big holes and opportunities in sponsorship upfront. As I mentioned, the shift from broadcast to free to air to pay platforms that's worked very well for us in the UK, I think there's some of that to be done in gaming, digital et cetera. So lots of places.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [7]
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Do you meet the management -- this is the (inaudible) everyone's aware about of Chase (multiple speakers).
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [8]
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This guy, I know you've heard of that guy, Chase Carey, the moustache, Chase is on board now, he is not only Chairman, but CEO and recruited really two superstars under him, Ross Brawn, who is one, I think six world championships, both with Ferrari and Mercedes, he's really deep. The foremost team leader, team executive who is in retirement who came out to become Managing Director of Race Operations, and then Sean Bratches, who was really seminal in help building up ESPN, lost the battle with Skipper to be CEO, was on the beach for about 9 months, 12 months and is now coming to be MD of Commercial Operations. So I think about as start of the team as you can have.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [9]
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I don't know how much you can help us in terms of managing expectations for the business, but the big opportunities -- but probably some of that's out of the gate. So I think the race calendar is generally locked in for 2017 --.
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [10]
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Yes. Probably mostly for 2018 too.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [11]
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Yes. So maybe we just talk about what's the timeframe for what you think you can start showing the results on the revenue line from some of these opportunities?
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [12]
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Yes, I think you're correct to point out that this isn't going to happen in a week. I mean the one that has the potential for earliest revenue is sponsorship because of the holes. Other areas are going to take longer whether it be adding more races or the natural calendar of events that come up or renewing broadcast contracts. We have to do a lot to make the races more interesting and more competitive. Frankly, that will help on sponsorship, that will help fund viewership, that will help on renewals on the broadcasting rights. And all of those are going to happen over a longer period time, we have to get agreement with the teams, we have to get agreement with the FIA, the regulatory body, so there is a complicated series of negotiations that are going on. So I think you're right to temper that this -- everything we've learned suggests that the opportunities at least as big, if not bigger than we first thought and everything we've learned says there are going to be bumps in the road over the next one year or two years, potentially three years to get to that promised land.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [13]
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No pun intended. How much does the FIA play a role? So I've heard this idea of we need to make Formula One more exciting and there was an interesting discussion and a call about NASCAR and the pressure they've been under from a ratings and an attendance perspective. So I don't know how does -- how are you and Chase and the teams thinking about making it more competitive and how hard, can you help us think about the degree of difficulty in getting the teams onboard for changes and then what is the role of the FIA in making those changes?
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [14]
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So the FIA has an important role and Jean Todt, Chase and I, particularly Chase has spent a bunch of time with him, he runs the FIA. They have an important role, first around safety and around fairness. They see certainly the desire and the reason to make the races more competitive. And within that we have a fair amount of freedom as long as we're cognizant and aware of the safety elements.
The team's clearly have, if you're a winning team, changing the batting order, changing how things work isn't always the way you want, but even though the teams that win today understand that in the long run having a sport which has high attendance, high degree of energy and passion is a lot better as a promotion vehicle than one which doesn't. And it's your Mercedes or Red Bull or Ferrari who are the historical winners, there are other ones, McLaren, Williams were close. You understand that you need that passion to generate enthusiasm, you need that to make it worthwhile as a brand promotion vehicle for them.
Now having that concept, everybody agrees on and then turning that into action and (inaudible) is a different matter and that's what's going to take the work and that's why frankly having a guy like Ross Brawn who has credibility is so important.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [15]
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Understand. You mentioned sponsorship, you talked about the quality of the race, what about on the television side, in terms of rights fees. I think you have some renewals coming up, I believe in the US, maybe in Germany. Where is the money largest today and what's the timeframe (inaudible) you can really accelerate that business and maybe tap into the sort of --?
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [16]
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The best deal we have is frankly, the most recent one we cut, which is the UK and the US is a -- it's a popcorn part, it's nothing. The opportunity is good, certainly in percentage terms, not in absolute dollar terms, right. Yes, it's very low and it's with NBC and it's not on the main NBC, it's on the sports channel, clearly opportunity around that. Those overall, as I said, we're going to get a lot -- we're going to do far better on those renewals (inaudible) a couple of things happen. First, we have (inaudible) and viewership et cetera, and two, the extent that there's competition, what drove the UK, you had BT and Sky and [Bean], all looking at it and that's what you need. We need multiple guys finding it important to their business and then you'll see a good result. So some of it are ability to create a great product but some of it also the competitive environment in those respective markets for who wants these rights.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [17]
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And just one more follow-on, when it comes to the teams, you have this agreement that I think goes through 2020 (multiple speakers) your economics and their economics, which is your largest cost item. And then you have some stock you've got out there being offered to them. Can you give us an update on this, on the share offering piece of the puzzle and then do you expect any changes to their team agreement and economics before 2020?
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [18]
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So roughly what happened is we gave $1.1 billion -- we got an $8 billion asset, had $3.6 billion to debt, we paid $4.4 billion for the equity at the time the deal was struck. We gained $1.1 billion in cash and $3.3 billion worth of stock, effectively. There was some that was (inaudible) exchangeable for $400 million, but it's worth looking at calling to stock for this purpose. Stock has since traded up, obviously, so that stock is worth more today. But in addition, we've cleaned out a bunch of the stock, 1.550 billion at $25 a share and we repurchased effectively another from the (inaudible) stock, we bought back another 400 million at $21.25, giving them, CBC and their Group $3 billion and $3.50 billion at closing rather than the $1.1 billion and much less stock, they have something like [1.6 billion] cleanups we've gotten a bit of a lot of overhang but we sit with this 400 million purchased at $21.25, which is either going to be sold to the teams as part of an induced change in the -- how we operate together or it's going to be a treasury stock share repurchase bias at a very attractive price.
So we look at it's a kind of a no lose proposition, either we're going to get a better operating agreement because we sold them cheap stock or we're going [buy] back stock cheaply, that's sort of where we are now.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [19]
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And that offer, I think (inaudible) something?
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [20]
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Yes, look, it's in our control. If we were -- this is a far better and far better, I'm far less interested in buying back $40 million cheaply, that would be nice. I'm far more interested in getting the right deal with the teams and setting the structure of the races, much more cost containment, much more in fairness in prize money. Some of the things that happened in the NFL, which is sort of a paragon, we're at the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of trying to build fairness in the sport today, we'd like to move towards that.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [21]
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Let's shift to Liberty Sirius and Jim this morning reiterated that there is not a sliver of this thing, so that remains.
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [22]
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He called me afterwards and said he loved that line and he told me he was here this morning agreeing.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [23]
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Profit and losses.
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [24]
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Pandora is really interesting asset. You got a give them credit depending on how you look at it, it's either the seventh or the ninth and the fifth most app among Americans, great product. Way under monetized, way under -- perhaps not executed as well in some of their other business plans, has big dreams around subscriptions, we're not necessarily is convinced throughout, but you have to be impressed with somebody who had 80 million audiences, which is listening 20 minutes a day, so pretty impressive statistic.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [25]
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Jim talked about the opportunity potentially to have an advertising business inside a Sirius, not necessarily combined the two, and speaking about going after all that money. You've talk about that over the past six months, you still see that as a potential option for Sirius whether it's build or buy got their ad dollars in radio?
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [26]
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Sirius has a whole bunch of opportunities we believe around the car, another things that we can do. But if you just look at the pure kind of audio listening space, Sirius is at the top of the pyramid. We've got the best users paying the highest prices, in the most protected way, it's older guys generally looks like this audience, they've even a little older, looks more like me.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [27]
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Good looking audience.
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [28]
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Good looking audience. And that's where the greatness is. If you look at the subscription market, you got a bunch of guys who are very strategic Google, Apple, Amazon who are going to pound pricing, Spotify going to pound pricing and have no protection on the cost side. There's no DCMA to protect them about what they pay, there's no statutory CRB, the record companies can charge whatever they want. You got revenues collapsing, many guys competing and cost rising, that doesn't appear to be a very attractive business to us.
We saw differentiation where we are, because we have other kinds of content like Howard Stern, like ESPN, like CNBC, put on the list a long tail. Then you got the terrestrial radio market, it's still a $16 billion market and there is some percentage market that will never pay for a service. We look at that and go, $4 billion here perhaps in subscription, everybody pounding the crap out of each other or we've got about $5 billion in our bucket and then there is $16 billion over here in the free market. Yes, it's going to decline. But it hasn't declined that much and Pandora is under-monetized in that space. There are a bunch of relatively encumbered or hampered competitors like iHeart, because of their debt loads. That's a big pool of money. We look at ways -- we try and think about ways to go after that pool of capital -- pool of revenue rather.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [29]
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One of the things Jim and I talked about is the sort of future of connected cars and how that means -- what that does for competitive pressure on SIRI. As the largest shareholder of the Company with admittedly a long-term view, how do you get comfortable it may continue to execute and defend the beachhead they've got with the OEMs as you start to have more connectivity in the car?
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [30]
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Connectivity in the car is a two-edged sword for SIRI. I mean one sense some of the ways in which we have a sinecure or protected position will be reduced, because our satellite connection will not be the only connection in the car. But there are many capabilities and features that we have and can do better with having a connected car. 360L, the product we're building that is for OEMs has far more capabilities, where some of it's done via satellite and some its pulled via the connection in the car, that's a plus for us.
If you take the long-term and you think about where everybody has that connectivity in the car, certain things open up. We pay the OEMs quite a lot of money today. If we don't have that position and we're not utilizing our satellite capacity and we're on everybody else's 3G that's in the car, it's not clear why we will be paying those royalties. So, the cost structure of SiriusXM in the 360L world would change.
The same thing with the fact we have the spectrum which is enormous asset potentially could be re-purposed if you think long-term. That's all about where we stand on the entertainment side. I think Jim could hear us talk, but I would guess he would also point out, we've done quite a lot in the connected vehicle through our own efforts into the (inaudible) to build a platform that OEMs can use and we've signed up many Chrysler, Toyota, many of the car manufacturers other than GM and Ford to utilize our platform and there is potentially a lot that we can do in another revenue stream around connected vehicle, because there is this connectivity in the car.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [31]
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And on the Liberty-SIRI front Greg the discount -- the stubborn discount keeps widening, Berkshire's hasn't seemingly helped that as they put new money to work in SIRI stock, I asked Jim if you would --
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [32]
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They've got money in both sides, right.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [33]
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I asked him if SIRI could buy some Liberty-SIRI, particularly excited about the idea. What realistically do you think you can do to help address that discount or is your time frame just while (Multiple Speakers).
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [34]
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I think it's an opportunity that's down the road if I have to. When we need to do something about it, we can. It doesn't need to be solved today. It needs to be solved the day that we issue stock or want to be a seller in some way and I don't think that they have today. That been instead we know what we need to do, we go out and buy some of our own stock back. We don't have a liquidity on an cash flow basis that SIRI has, but we have quite a lot of borrowing capacity. I think we have $1 billion of debt up against a $15 billion asset or something. So, it's not like we're under -- what we're levered high.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [35]
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Let's shift over to Liberty Broadband and Charter, Chris will be up here shortly, but I want to ask you a bit about the cable industry and sort of all of the M&A discussion that's going on out there. We've been through a period of consolidation, it's created a tremendous amount of value. I know you and John believe that consolidation is a big opportunity in cable. I guess how do you think about Charter as an asset, there has been this Verizon story out there about then being interested in the business. So I guess the first, how do you view Charter as a strategic asset potentially to someone like Verizon? And second, do you think cable consolidation, significant validation whether it's Cox or Comcast and Charter or others, do you think we may be in a position with the current administration that we could think bigger about M&A than we have in the past?
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [36]
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I'll start with the second part first. I think that's obvious that this current administration's FCC, which is not fully flushed out but chair is there, the statements, the direction clearly indicate that there is room for more consolidation and more flexibility, leveling the playing field around things like privacy, leveling the playing field around our build-out requirements, potentially around net neutrality and what that means Title II, lots of good stuff on that side, but also probably on the regulatory side in terms of M&A as well.
Are there other assets to consolidate? I think if there's any sizable cable assets out there, Tom and his team would love to take a look, likely be buyers, but it's not clear how many more are left to do. And if you talk about Charter as a target, I think you have a really high hurdle which is that management team and its largest shareholders, I'll speak for Liberty, but I suspect I know new houses mindset as well are very bullish on the assets and very bullish on the management team's plan. We saw it in a proxy, we saw it exhibited in what Tom Rutledge took and how was options are struck. I think the last ones stock have to get the [$5.63] for him divest them, I was on a comp committee. We were very enthused.
Tom will make an awful lot of money if that gets to $5.63 and will be pretty well too. And the fact that you have a management team that has executed before on that kind of plan has set forth their plan and put their capital in terms of their -- how they're paid on the line that way suggest the bullishness that we all have about this business. So, the hurdle around M&A is very high, because we're very enthused about our own plan.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [37]
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You made a comment yesterday on the earnings call in the question about convergence. And I want to come back and ask you about it because we had this discussion all through the conference Verizon was here, talked about it specifically and Liberty Global as well where you come down on in the US market on cable and mobile. Is it an yes or is it a when? How do you think about the puts and takes?
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [38]
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I think if you take -- and I wouldn't speak for all cable like we speak for Charter and you'll get to ask Chris, but I think as I said, they're very confident in their plan and the opportunities they can do it around it. The relative strength of our broadband offering, the relative strength of our video offering, the relative appeal of the margins we can generate in that space suggest you got to find something pretty attractive to go outside that. And the mobile market appears a lot more competitive. It does not appear that it's going to bleed over in the same way as it has in Europe, LGI's perspective is a little different perhaps because European market (inaudible) built lot more fiber, been a lot more competitive. We don't really have that situation in the same way here. I think our plan is exhibited as I said earlier by how management feels they want to be paid, it's pretty strong and doesn't -- wireless is an opportunity in upside not as much of a threat.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [39]
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I just got a couple more for you, and then we'll open up to the audience. And if you could please wait for a microphone so that everybody can hear you. QVC has had challenges of late, but there were some I think some positive commentary about recent trends on the call. Can you just give us an update on your outlook for that business and particularly the sort of ecommerce, Amazon, a competitive threat that everyone focuses on. What do you like this business if business will continue to be a growth business over the longer-term than it has in the past?
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [40]
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If you look in the 30 years the business has been around, it's basically had I think two periods when it has not grown for a year in this last sort of 12 months would be if you took a rolling-12 months, it'd be one of the few. How much of that was self-inflicted? Mike went through in pretty good detail there are five big categories where -- and they're materially big categories where we didn't execute as well our assortments weren't as good. You had obviously distractions around the election, still distractions around the election. If you look viewership is on many kinds of alternative entertainment services other than cable news, how much they're down all of those things are impacting I think our business.
We are, as you rightly noted, seeing some green shoots. I think we were sort of at the bottom if you look at any quarter, we were running down as much as seven I think for the first two months of this year were down maybe two, three. We are going to have a little bit of a negative impact in this quarter against last year because we have a -- last year was a leap year, got an extra day. I think that's worth about 1.5 so that's the vagaries of the calendar, but the fact that we sort of look like the bottomed out the other side and we're down two, three versus down seven is a positive.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [41]
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So before I ask one more, I want to see if there's any questions in the audience. You can go ahead and raise your hands. Got one right here in the middle.
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Questions and Answers
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John Frank, Fort Baker Capital - Analyst [1]
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It's John Frank with Fort Baker Capital. Question on Liberty Broadband, following up on your comments just from now. I know you guys enjoy valuable corporate governance and preemptive rights, yet the trading value of broadband is significantly less in the Company's holdings in Charter. You just spoke about potential strategic options as it relates to M&A for Charter. My question is, do you see a need for a strategic event for that discount to collapse and you to be paid for your rights or do you feel it can happen independently away from that type of event?
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [2]
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If you look back at the most comparable example, it's probably where we had the 58% economic and 47% voting stake in DIRECTV through one media and we eventually did a Reverse Morris Trust and merge it in. And somewhere down the road, DIRECTV got sold to AT&T, didn't require a transaction, it required us to say, go get the path and liquidity. So we sit today as you rightly know with a discount at broadband.
John and I may be kidding ourselves, but we think there is a valuable role for us being involved on the Board. We think the rights we have are worth something. We think that we created a good position for our shareholders. It's done well broadband, we put in -- between ventures and broadband, we put in $2.4 billion at 1.05, adjusting for the Time Warner split -- reverse split, 1.05 back in May of 2013 and we put in another $5 billion with some partners at 1.95 in May of 2016. So it's less than a year ago and been a pretty good run. We think there's more ahead and we think we can influence it positively.
What ultimately will lead to that collapse is the day we merge broadband into Charter or Charter gets bought. But I think it's first -- the first is more likely than the second. And I suspect we will be able to collapse it absolutely then. In the interim, hopefully, we may decide, hey got a lot of borrowing capacity at broadband, let's take advantage of that discount. If you're a shareholder of us or anyone else buying broadband seems like a pretty good play compared to buying Charter. And so, we may take advantage of that ourselves. We've done that before, we did that frankly at Liberty with LMDIA, we sucked in some of the stock at a discount. So we'll hopefully choose the returns even better.
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John Frank, Fort Baker Capital - Analyst [3]
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I would imagine that you would be at Board seat if you were to pursue a transaction right now. Is there any thought -- you could -- I'm sure given some Board seats permanently if you were to collapse the shares?
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [4]
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One of the things is today like all shareholders we are restricted in our ability, probably sell stock and things got windows all that stuff. Maybe we have Board seats, I don't think we would get contractual rights to Board seats, we probably collapse that. Today we have a contractual right broadband does. I would guess Charter would want to collapse that whether they would want to keep us around on Board seats because they like us, will have to ask question Chris or Tom. But my point is that we probably give up our contractual rights as part of that, the preemptive rights the governance, etcetera.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [5]
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We'll go to Morris in the back more.
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Unidentified Audience Member [6]
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Going back to Sirius, could you tell us when your contracts -- your exclusive contracts with some of the cable networks and Howard Stern and NASCAR expire? What you believe the core standard prospects for renewal are?
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [7]
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Morris, there's no one -- there's series of rolling ones. The one that got the most amount of noise was Howard. I guess we redid that about maybe 18 months ago. Something like that -- maybe not even 14 months ago we did Howard 15 months ago. I don't think Howard is going anywhere. We locked up, not only it's current rates but a whole bunch of library rights and a bunch of other things. If you think about other ones that are big for us --
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Unidentified Audience Member [8]
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Just did NFL.
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [9]
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NFL we did, thank you, Fox we did fairly recently last year. Some of them frankly like ESPN don't have the leverage they once had baseball's come down, we redid that maybe two years or three years ago. There is none that stands out. Howard was the biggest one, Fox may have been up there on the list. None that stands out we'd really -- I would consider a big threat.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [10]
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I think we're basically out of time any over under on the bright this year for wins?
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [11]
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I think it will be a winning season.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [12]
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All right. There you go. Bet you got.
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Greg Maffei, Liberty Media - President and CEO [13]
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Can't lose in the new stadium.
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Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley - Analyst [14]
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Thank you. I appreciate it.
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