Royal Bank of Canada at National Bank Financial Canadian Financial Services Conference

Mar 25, 2015 AM EDT

RY.TO - Royal Bank of Canada
Royal Bank of Canada at National Bank Financial Canadian Financial Services Conference
Mar 25, 2015 / 05:10PM GMT

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Corporate Participants
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* Doug McGregor
Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services

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Presentation
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Unidentified Participant [1]
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All right everyone. We're back after lunch with Doug McGregor, Chair and CEO of RBC Capital Markets. He's also Group Head - Capital Markets and Investor and Treasury Services. Doug, thanks very much for joining us.

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Unidentified Participant [3]
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I'll just kick off interesting observation. RBC Capital Markets has grown their business 17% per year, grown their net income annually 17% per year on average for three years. Not a bad way to ask the first question, which is what key messages you'd like to leave for folks here today?

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [4]
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I'll just talk briefly about the strategy. So every year we come into a new year with a goal of continuing to be first in Canada and by that I mean when the lead tables maintain our profitability, do good business and that's worked out pretty well for us. We're not always first in every category, but we strive to be, and the profitability is good in Canada.

The big story around our business has been the growth in the US. So we have now more than half of our revenue and more than half of our profitability in the US. It's really been a growth story since the financial crisis. It's been a story about acquiring a lot of corporate clients and institutional clients and really continuing to do more and more business with them. So we're very pleased with the way things have gone in the US. We are very focused on continuing to grow that business.

In Europe, we were heavily weighted to trading. Up until the financial crisis, we've been adding industry verticals, we've always had an infrastructure in energy and a mining team there and a full fixed income and equity trading capability. Now we've added three verticals of consumer industrials in the healthcare and built out around that. So we can be more relevant to just a broader set of clients. We're making loans there. We're expanding our loan book there, and we're certainly getting, making good headway on the lending and the debt capital markets side, less so on the investment banking although we are doing better numbers year-over-year. So I would say overall, those are the three major markets that that's kind of what we're focused on and it's been working.

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Unidentified Participant [5]
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All right. Just interesting to note over the last three years I mentioned 17% net -- annual net income growth for your business Capital Markets. The Canadian banking business is growing earnings on average 8%, and every couple of quarters, in particular if RBC Capital Markets has a particularly strong quarter. Some folks tend to worry that well, that's too big, and it's almost as if they're asking the bank to apologize for having such success in your business. So should investors be concerned about RBC as an enterprise constraining growth in your business because it's getting too big relative to the total size of the bank?

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [6]
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Yes, that -- so that comes up from time to time. We're running about 24% now. I mean the guideline of 25% is something Gord Nixon put out there years ago. I think it's a decent or a proper weighting for the investment bank, and mightily go over that for a period of time. It's possible. I think one of the things people have to understand about our business is that we switch from being really trading centric, certainly 8 years to 10 years ago to being 60% lending and investment banking fees. But the loan book is a core banking activity and it's mostly to almost all the public companies, and mostly to investment grade companies. So, what we're trying to do is give people more transparency, in terms of how we make money in RBC Capital Markets because it certainly has a lot of banking in it.

In terms of the rest of the Canadian dealers, some which were here today, we're in the middle of the pack, frankly in terms of our investment banks' contribution to the banks profit. And so, we're not a lowlier in that regard, where we outlie is that our -- the size of our businesses is much bigger than many of the other Canadian banks because of our activities outside of Canada. I think that people are starting to view that more positively as they see the results in the US. And we have a big presence there and it's very good for the World Bank. And there's certainly -- Dave is certainly encouraging us to continue to grow that.

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Unidentified Participant [7]
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So no artificial ceiling?

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [8]
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Well, I just don't see us growing through 30%, I mean but I think by buying City National and with some of the other things the Bank is going to do, when I look at the bank's five-year plan, frankly, against our five-year plan, we don't go through 25%.

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Unidentified Participant [9]
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Okay. Okay. Hallmark of [growth story] in your business is really the performance in the US. And this isn't a new strategy. It just seems like it was a strategy that was in place for quite a long time, pre-dated the financial crisis and then took off really after the financial crisis. And maybe, if you could just give us your perspective on what you've achieved in the US over last -- since the financial crisis?

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [10]
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Well, I can tell you that it wasn't much fun before the financial crisis. So, before the financial crisis, a loan spreads -- there was a question I sat through on some of the presentations earlier today, I mean a BBB customer would pay 75 basis points back a LIBOR or less, pre-financial crisis. And you cannot make that work in a loan book. And post financial crisis, that number gapped out to 200 basis points and since come back to about 125 basis points. So if you have a strategy where you have a bank that funds cheap and has a very clean balance sheet, which we did, then it was a perfect time to roll out credit to customers who needed it and to hire bankers, because it was a time when you weren't hiring from the labor pool of the 10% that had been let go from a dealer. You were looking at all the people at [Bayer], all the people at Lehman, a lot of people from City and other banks. And so, the labor opportunity combined with the providing capital opportunity made it possible for us. And so we went at it, fairly vigorously and invested in people and put capital load and improved our debt capital markets and equity capital markets capability. So now, yes, it's worked and it's been -- as I said pre-crisis, it was really hard. And is it possible it could get difficult going forward, I suppose. But our brand now and our connectivity with customers has improved so much that it's really stabilized the business and put a nice foundation for us. So, we're optimistic it will go well.

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Unidentified Participant [11]
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All right. Another aspect I think as pointed out to understand or when I looked at RBC capital markets that covered the bank for probably a decade now, you expand the capital markets into the US for many years now. We've had pretty severe disruption in the early 2000s or in unregulated energy and telecom. And then, we had the mother of all disruptions, in structured credit 2008, 2009. RBC comes through on the skate. And a lot of peers who expanded into the US with the same objectives, blew themselves up. So, why do you guys do it different?

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [12]
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Well, I think the -- we did lose some money. Certainly, I think that we're fortunate enough. We had significant write-downs in 2008 or 2009, but we are consistently profitable because we were making so much money in the trading business as people are going to remember back to 2009, the fixed income spreads gapped out so much, because there was such a lack of liquidity. So, I think a part of it is, we were fortunate. Certainly, we had some structured credit in our books, but a not a lot. And so, I think that worked. Look, I think we've been fortunate, we recognized that and if there's anything I worry about is that we do something that the more work out well. So, we're pretty vigorous about risk on the balance sheet, but also risk with regulators and risk in the market generally. And I would say, it is easy to get it offside and we're pretty focused on not getting offside.

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Unidentified Participant [13]
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Yes. And what you said there interests me, because you said you had not a lot of structured credit. And what I had, looking over a broader time frame, I don't see a lot of risk on RBC Capital Markets, putting on a lot of severe risk on -- any severe risk concentration. So what is it about how you manage risk, what is it about your culture that keeps that at bay? Because in other cases, in other institutions, we don't see that pattern.

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [14]
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Yes, I can't speak for other institutions. I would say, if you look at the lending or the -- how we take risk at RBC, we have country limits, we have industry limits, we have single name limits, we have standing orders on desks that get rolled up into the credit of the same name. There is a fairly -- I'll -- I'd extremely elaborate frankly aggregation of the limit that we would have in any single name.

And in terms of adjudicating credit, it is centrally done out of Canada. We have a [CAD200 billion] committed loan book in our business. I said on the call almost every day with -- they have an Investment Banking and you had they had a Corporate Banking to some other people. I mean it's centralized, sometimes that makes people outside of Canada or in the regions unhappy, but at least we know exactly what's going on. I know what's going with the credits and I'm not saying that's going to make it that much better, but it certainly, I feel more comfortable when I see it. So I would say it's above limits. And if you look at banks, Canadian banks and other banks 10 or 15 years ago, it's no where nearly as well managed in terms of concentrations by names in the industry. So having said that, we've been working. We've grown this loan book mostly in the US in a recovering economy. The test always is how do you do in a recession.

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Unidentified Participant [15]
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I think it's interesting to note that you've chose to grow the loan book after the crisis, not before, I mean. You referenced the spread is changing.

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [16]
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So I don't take -- we didn't predict that credit was going to implode, but we did look out and say I can make the numbers worry, and so we were fortunate in that regard.

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Unidentified Participant [17]
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I'll go out to the audience, if you have any questions for Doug? Yes, we do. Back here.

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Questions and Answers
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Unidentified Audience Member [1]
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I would be interested, the previous comment as before, I mean how does Royal Bank communicate its culture and its concern for risk to all the employees that Royal Bank has like in Canada and the United States? Is there an ongoing effort to train or to inform or somehow, so that you don't have some traders, somebody going off the deep end without you guys finding out but until it's too late.

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [2]
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Right. So in terms of the trading, there is formal trading on everything from money laundering to the Code of Conduct, which really includes the kind of activity you're talking about. You have to do, you have to complete the course and sign-off and you can see some of the younger people, they print their certificates sticking on their door and things like that. But, we go through that all, I'll do a townhall here after this meeting for all our people in Montreal. And I have done, one in Luxembourg, London, New York, Calgary, two in Toronto in the last three weeks. And there is a slide in that presentation. And it is a slide that shows the regulatory finds of global banks over the last five years. And the aggregate numbers approaching [CAD200 billion]. And what I tell people is, this staying on side and not doing the wrong thing is more important than making money. And I dwell on with them, because I believe it is our biggest risk, is that we are not careful and that we get offside, somebody commits a fraud or somebody does something that, gets us offside with regulator.

So, it's torn from the top and it is a culture of RBC. In Canada, it comes from Tony Fell on those days and you know the no conflicts and do the right thing. And I think, we've done a decent job, given how many senior people we've hired from other places in the US and Europe. And when we see somebody that we're just not sure about them, we usually let them go and it doesn't take a lot.

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Unidentified Participant [3]
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Any others? Okay. I'll come back, Doug, and ask you a question I've asked all your peers over the last two days. Since the financial crisis, capital markets as a business has suffered from the perception that it is inherently volatile, prone to opaque risks that even senior management sometimes don't fully understand. And ultimately, its vulnerable a asymmetric downside shocks. Can you give us your thoughts on the truths and untruths of this view point?

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [4]
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Well, the word opaque shows up from one rating agencies materials, quite regularly. I would say we have made a real effort not to be opaque and to improve our financial disclosure. I would say that a lot of what we do, more than half of what we do, you would consider just core banking activity, providing credit, conducting foreign exchange transactions, lending against treasuries and another securities. I would say that the assets that we have on our balance sheets, the amount of capital we have to carry against assets, the leverage is down this business. I think the risk is down in this business. So, I'd say, pre-crisis there was -- when I was talking earlier about loan spreads, there was just a real appetite for more exotic products that customers want one of them, because they didn't get the interest rates, they wanted from straight debt securities and now you don't have an appetite for a lot of structure on the client side, products are just simplified. I think, the businesses will be volatile to the extent if you get really bad capital markets, it's hard to issue into them, but when I'm reading your research, while I'm reading other people's research, I think some people waking up to the fact that these businesses are more consistent than they used to be.

And I think it's hard, like you can look at Goldman and versus J.P. Morgan or J.P. Morgan has got large investment bank but to figure out what the discount is by investment bank, I don't think it's necessarily all that transparent either. Yes, we'll just keep working on and keep producing good results, and ultimately people pay for what they think they need to pay for.

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Unidentified Participant [5]
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All right. I'll ask another question on the industry generally. On the topic of high-frequency trading, you see that as an unfair advantage for some investors are a vital source of market liquidity?

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [6]
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Yes. So that Flash Boys' book was kind of interesting because it was Brad Katsuyama who you used to work for us. I know Brad recently well, but before it came out, somebody sent me an Xserve, and it was an Xserve that actually made us look kind of like buffoons, it was just a short two or three pages. I remember calling our Head of Equities and said (inaudible) it's better be a lot better than what I've seen so far. And so actually we've worked that okay and in terms of our reputation, it helped us. It helped us with a lot of clients, and in fact, a lot of the buy-side clients came in. And the whole theory behind that with the product which they called THOR, and if you saw a 60 minute, just saw Brad demonstrated. It's really to get an order to all the venues at the same time as opposed to the nearest first and then the others -- the latency where the orders get to the exchanges at a further way. That's when you can get picked off by a high frequency trader. So not all high frequency trading is predatory and I'm not an expert. Certainly I've been through the presentation multiple times but I think there certainly are people that collocate aside an exchange that have an information and a time advantage. And people should be concerned about it, they are concerned and I think that they -- there is a lot of regulators in the US, they're spending time trying to get to the bottom of it. But it's just not easy. So at least the subjects on the table and hopefully the outcome will be that markets will be better for having gone through it.

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Unidentified Participant [7]
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Just within the subject matter, there's a new exchange opening up in Canada called Aequitas NEO Exchange, which RBC Capital Markets is involved with. I wonder if you could expand on this initiative and give us your views on your strategy related to Aequitas?

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [8]
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Well, this is Greg Mills and his group, again I'm really -- we had started a previous exchange, which we sold, Global Alpha and which we sold to the group that bought the TSX. This one is really one-off a similar theory as THOR. And so really is about, just making sure that the timing of order entry and execution is fair for everybody. And we've got some significant institutions in Canada and some Americans who invested in it. And I think it starts on next Friday, it opens.

So, if our first experience as any -- indication then I think it will be -- it well do well. Part of the problem is, with the TSX is, it's a monopoly. And OSC is supposed to be regulating how much it charges, but when it comes to data charges and execution charges, these are very significant numbers. And so to have, a reasonable competitor, I think is a good thing for the market.

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Unidentified Participant [9]
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I'll go out ask the audience one last time and see if you have question. All right. I'm going to ask you then, almost an unfair question. In the last cycle or pre-dating the last cycle structured credit turned out to be the risk that no one really forethought for a couple of players. And it created an enormous amount of disruption in the market. So, the entree part of the question is, where might that hidden problem be that we don't see coming today?

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [10]
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I would say and I did say a couple years ago that I thought today -- meltdown in commodities would be a really bad event for the Canadian banks and the investment banks. So far that -- I don't know what you call oil meltdown but certainly the mining business is on a kind of a protracted downturn and oil is tough. And the bank seem to be weathering that. In fact, there's been a lot of activity in the oil patch. I would say really the things that can get you in trouble is, if you have a global recession, like a massive downturn in financial markets, and you know a -- our recession in the major markets like North America, like the US and whether that's driven by some of events in Europe or in Asia and China, I'm not sure. But we're operating in not robust growth, but when you look at the labor markets in US, that economy is doing pretty well, and that's where our concentration is. So something that would disrupt that market or disrupt Capital Markets, like with credit gaps out because of the European event or it's just a route in equities, that can disturb the earnings pretty quickly.

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Unidentified Participant [11]
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Right. You talked a little earlier about building-in your disclosure and one thing I look at every quarter now is just the revenue classification from Canada and the US. And the US story is pretty compelling. Outstanding revenue growth. If I just back into the Canadian revenues, it looks like they're growing more slowly. I wonder what made -- what's causing those revenues to grow more slowly. Is there -- is that something in your business here in Canada that's not growing very well or is there other factors that might explain that?

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [12]
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I think that one of the issue is you've got the mining businesses been very quiet for multiple years and that used to be our second largest contributor. More recently the energy business has been weak, although we have done some very big deals in that space over the last few months. I would say there the difference is really in the size of the economy, the US people is 10 times the size of Canada's. And between the two of them, there are half of the global people are in the Investment Banking business. And when you are 2.5% player in the US, getting into 3.5%, that kind of growth you will never get in Canada. I mean just a client acquisition opportunity is unbelievable.

So the Canadian banks, the large Canadian banks, they all lend to that group of corporate customers in Calgary and Montreal and Toronto, and a few in Vancouver, but there's not a lot of growing client opportunities the way that just as not the scale. And so when you have, it's mature, it's mature for the Canadian banks, that market. And we fight each other for market share, but it's largely established, although we continue to try to take market share and we make some headway. But it's just the growth opportunity in the US is just way better.

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Unidentified Participant [13]
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Yes, okay. And the other thing I do want to touch on is ROE in RBC Capital Markets, which is a bit lower than peers, at least as it's reported in public statements. And given that we're all analysts here and we do look and compare across banks, maybe you can give us some insight as to why RBC Capital Markets' ROE might appear lower than peers?

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [14]
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Okay. So I've been trying to figure that out. I mean it's hard to get to the bottom because the other banks won't tell you anything. But, here's what I think. I think first of all I know that my return on equity is much higher in Canada than it is in the US and it's higher in US than it is in Europe. And that to grow an investment bank in the US the way we have, and to have an ROE around 14%, I think is very good, when global investment banks return on equities are 9%.

So, I think one of the reasons the other Canadian investment banks would have higher ROEs is, because they don't have businesses outside of Canada. The challenge for them is, to grow their earnings. So, I'm thinking given that the World Bank is still producing 18% to 19% return on equity, given its business mix that we should be growing our earnings. I know Dave agrees and Janice does and that's what we're doing.

The other thing is, within an investment bank what do you have in there and how do you attribute capital. So, we have more capital attributed to our business than our economic capital, which is how I think the capitals attributed to the other Canadian banks, because we don't keep any -- we attribute all the capital in the Bank to the subs. We don't hold any -- at the center of the Bank. And other thing is, we syndicate our term funding charges into the our investment bank and that's hundreds of millions of dollars and that can't sit in treasury to other banks. So, I think it's a combination of things. But it's quite obviously the size of us outside of Canada influences that number.

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Unidentified Participant [15]
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All right. Okay. And then, a question is near and dear to my heart sort of true or false, cash equity's commissions are declining by about 50% every few years. It will ultimately go to zero, true or false? And if you can elaborate on your views on that business?

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [16]
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I worked on cash equities desk at Pitfield, MacKay, Ross in 1983 and they were just switching over to negotiate commissions. I think they're going from a dime a share to a nickel and people were teary-eyed. And of course, now it's not so good. Our equity's business in the US and Canada, did pretty well. But I think if you ask people, just pure cash equities with attributed research cost to that business. Can you make money? Yes, we can make money in Canada, for some of the reasons, our brand, our market share and so on. It took us years to breakeven on that basis in the US. We're kind of getting there in Europe, but it's hard. What you need is, you need new issue fees, like a share of new issue fees running through those desks. And so in a good decent new issue environment, you can make cash equities make money. But it needs that both for the fees and also to be relevant to the customer in terms getting some two-way floor going. The challenges coming in Europe when they decouple a payment for research from the equity's business, and I think researches -- we research 170 securities. We've spent over [CAD100 million] a year doing it, that's the hard one to evaluate where that's headed, sale-side research, how much you should spend on it, we'll just have to see. But it's been -- it's like any business, if you look at fixed income, the rate's fixed income business is really -- it's same as -- it's just behind cash equities on electronification that used to be non-transparent, now it's getting transparent. The margin is coming out of that business. I mean like most industries, you need to continually reinvent what you do, because margins don't tend to get bigger and so we are copping.

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Unidentified Participant [17]
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Okay.

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [18]
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Yes.

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Unidentified Participant [19]
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All right. Well, with that, Doug, thank you for your time and wish you all the best for 2014.

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [20]
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Thank you.

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Unidentified Participant [21]
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Okay, thank you. Appreciate it.

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Doug McGregor, Royal Bank of Canada - Chair & CEO of RBC Capital Markets & Group Head, Capital Markets & Investor & Treasury Services [22]
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Yes.

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Unidentified Participant [23]
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We'll be back in a few minutes with Laurentian Bank.

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