Teekay Offshore Partners LP at National Association of Publicly Traded Partnerships MLP Investor Conference

May 22, 2013 AM EDT
TOO - Teekay Offshore Partners LP
Teekay Offshore Partners LP at National Association of Publicly Traded Partnerships MLP Investor Conference
May 22, 2013 / 05:45PM GMT 

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Corporate Participants
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   *  Peter Evensen
      Teekay Offshore Partners L.P. - CEO, CFO, Director

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Conference Call Participants
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   *  T.J. Schultz
      RBC Capital Markets - Analyst

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Presentation
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 T.J. Schultz,  RBC Capital Markets - Analyst   [1]
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 We'll go ahead and get started. I'm T.J. Schultz with RBC Capital Markets. I'll turn it over here to Peter Evensen, CEO of Teekay. He's got a couple MLPs. Obviously, they've got a lot going on; I think an announcement out just today, as a matter of fact. So he'll run through both TGP, which is the LNG side, and TOO, which is on the offshore crude space as well. So with that, I will hand it over to Peter.

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 Peter Evensen,  Teekay Offshore Partners L.P. - CEO, CFO, Director   [2]
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 Thank you. Thank you very much. It's a pleasure to be back at this conference, which I see continues to grow just like our partnerships. Our two MLPs are part of what we call our three daughter companies. And we actually have four Teekay companies that are all listed on the New York Stock Exchange. We have Teekay Corporation, which develops projects and is the general partner of our two MLPs, is just moving into the high splits. I'll talk about that a little bit at the end of my presentation. And then we have our two MLPs, Teekay LNG Partners, concentrating on LNG; and Teekay Offshore Partners, which is concentrating on deep-water projects in Brazil and the UK. We also have a fourth company, Teekay Tankers, that concentrates on conventional tankers but is not an MLP.

 So let's talk about Teekay Offshore Partners, and there's a nice picture of the Voyageur Spirit FPSO as it was floated out from the yard last fall in Norway. Of course, there are forward-looking statements which you should read. And let's talk about the investment highlights. So, we have a very stable operating model at Teekay Offshore. It's a diversified portfolio. We have a lot of fee-based contracts. In other words, we're not taking any cargo or any pricing risk on the oil. A total of $4.8 billion of these fee-based contracts with an average duration of five years. I'll talk about them more in my presentation. We have two leading market positions. We are in the harsh weather floating production storage offtake operations, and then, of course, in your floating deep water and fixed platforms, you have to come and pick up the oil where pipelines aren't available. And in that case, we have our dynamically positioned shuttle tankers, where we are the world's market leader. But underpinning it, and what I think separates us from a lot of the people at this conference, is we don't have a focus on the US. We have a focus, rather, on the whole build out of the energy infrastructure that's taking place all of the world, which I would argue is probably a faster growing energy build out than what you've seen in America so far, even though the prospects for America are very good.

 For our particular partnership, we have two kinds of growth. We have organic growth, where these are projects we are undertaking inside of our MLP. This is 4 shuttle tankers that are going to go into Brazil. We have a high-load unit that's also going into Brazil, and 2 floating storage projects, one of which we just announced and I'll talk about during my presentation. So we have a lot of organic growth of projects that are either new projects that are directly ordered by the partnership, or conversions of existing vessels, so we have the chance for those vessels to live a longer life and are therefore much more accretive. And then we have growth from our sponsor, where we have six FPSO units that, as they get re-contracted, will be dropped down. So we have a lot of ways continue to grow the distribution as we have since we went public in 2006.

 So if we look at Teekay Offshore, here is our picture of our FPSO that's down in Brazil. We really provide offshore oil solutions, because when you think about what's coming up from the seabed, it has to be processed and then it has to be shipped. But our contracts -- we don't own any of the oil, we just process it. And I think that's important because it gives that stable fee-based contracts, which is what MLPs really fit well with in terms of a business model. We are structured as an MLP but we have elected, as we say, to tick the box. In other words, we qualify to pay US income taxes. Why do we do that? Because we don't have any US taxes to note, and therefore, this fits into an IRA, for example, or other pension plans. And therefore, we give a Form 1099 rather than a K-1, and that makes us attractive to a lot of individual investors as well as some institutions that don't like to mix with K-1s.

 As I mentioned, we are a market leader in our core segments. The shuttle tankers are small -- is a small segment of the tanker market, but they have bow thrusters, variable pitch propellers, and they can hold a position in deep water without anchoring within a distance of about 2 meters because of all the equipment they have on board. And we are the market leader in a market that's dominated, really, by Scandinavian and Brazilian companies. But we dominate them.

 And then we have the FPSOs, where we are the fourth largest in the world, but we're the largest in our operating segments, being the North Sea. And that's the harshest weather environment -- you have waves that are 20 meters, 25 meters in the winter; and therefore, the kind of operational standards that you have there are the most stringent in the world. And that's why you're seeing, for instance, in the Gulf of Mexico a lot of those standards are being brought now down to more benign environments. If we figure out where we are and why we have fee-based contracts, we are not in the exploration side of oil. Rather, when an oilfield goes into production, that's when our units are needed. So on our FPSOs, which stands for floating production storage offtake, we are bringing up from the bottom -- we are bringing up wellstream oil, gas, water. We compress the gas, we separate out the water, and then you have oil. And it's either pumped to a floating storage unit or a shuttle tanker comes and picks it up every five or six days. And in the Gulf of Mexico, you have a lot of pipelines. But other places around the world, which goes to why there isn't as much energy infrastructure in the world, people like shuttle tankers because the shuttle tankers gives them destination flexibility. You've heard a lot of people at this conference talk about railcars as being interesting ways to arbitrage markets. But the shuttle tankers are really the floating pipelines that allow that arbitrage. And as you see, we transport about 3.3 million barrels, all on short-haul routes going forward. So it's our ability to bundle up these services that makes the Teekay difference.

 In the North Sea, we have 17 shuttle tankers. We actually in-charter from other owners in order to operate within our system, where we have a whole big contract base. So we can go around to all these fields like a taxi service and pick them up and deliver them anywhere in Europe. We also have two FPSOs and an additional six that are owned by our sponsor and will ultimately be dropped down into our partnership. Brazil, which is a fast-growing region expected to double oil production -- 15 shuttle tankers, including the 4 we're going to get this year; two FPSOs; and we recently -- our partnership, that is -- received an offer to buy another 50% of an FPSO that just hit first oil in Brazil. So lots of great growth opportunities.

 It's the contracts that really make it so important and why we are able to make accretive acquisitions. We have 36 shuttle tankers with an average contract length of six years. But what's important here is that the charter has options in order to extend the contracts, and that's important because as we roll them over or as the oil fields last longer, then they utilize these options. So this is what I would term the minimum contract life that you have going forward. The same is true on our FPSO units and basically, once we're in situ, once we're on the field, we are the cheapest alternative that they have. And therefore, when the contract ends, we have a chance to roll that over at a higher rate. But, I guess I would say this is fortunate and unfortunate. We don't have that many rollovers which gives us our stability, but when we do we are able to reemploy those contracts where the replacement cost is higher, so we are able to make more money on them. The conventional tankers, we have 6 left and that's a market we are not growing in. But, what a great amount of high-quality customers that you see there. All investment-grade type customers, and that's important because they look to us to provide their -- our expertise, so we are really a supplier to them.

 What's happened recently? We just completed the drop-down of the Voyageur Spirit FPSO. So, it came in in May; it will have full effect in the third quarter. And, as I mentioned earlier, we received an offer to buy another 50% unit in a smaller FPSO that's operating down in Brazil. Just this week, we took delivery of the Samba Spirit shuttle tanker and will take three more going forward between June and 2013. And then just today, we put out a press release -- and I assure you it was in time for the conference. We signed a three-year contract with Statoil to convert an existing shuttle tanker and this is important because that shuttle tanker can last up to another 15 years. So well beyond its useful life as a shuttle tanker, and therefore quite accretive. And we did a similar deal, although smaller, with a shuttle tanker, the Navion Clipper in Thailand, and that, again, will commence cash flowing. So those are our organic growth opportunities and then, as I said, over and above what I've already shown as visible growth, we're actually bidding on new FPSO contracts for fields that are going to coming in 2016, 2017, and now close to 2018.

 As I said, we put out a press release. We're going to supply a floating storage unit to Statoil on the Gina Krog Field and this is only a minimum three-year contract, but, as I mentioned earlier, as long as that field stays in production which we expect, based on our reading of the reservoir life, will at least at least be 10 years, then we will get our extension options declared. And so therefore, as the contract moves through to the extension options, it actually will become more profitable to us. And so, this contract doesn't come until 2017, but it gives you an idea that our partnership is able to look out and see all the visible growth opportunities that we have for the next five years. And that kind of vision looking forward is very good for our unit holders because our unit holders can see what kind of growth we can have each year going forward.

 The North Sea is actually -- everyone talked about it as a mature market, but actually it's been growing; and in fact, the Johan Sverdrup oilfield was the biggest in 2011. So we are actually seeing -- and this isn't a focus of climate change -- we're actually seeing new regions up in the Barents Sea. And these will be longer shuttle routes; they actually fit some of our vessel designs that we have with cylinders, and so we actually see that as a really good growth market. And we're also seeing marginal oil fields that weren't developed in the first go-round at $15 and $20 oil, now become profitable. So there's a great need for our services. Similarly in Brazil, which should double its production from basically 2 million barrels to 4 million barrels, we are seeing that same thing going forward. It takes a little bit longer, but that's where -- because they don't have as much infrastructure, so they can't put resources to work as fast as we can, say, in the Gulf of Mexico, in the Eagle Ford, in the Bakken. But that's the opportunity for companies like ourselves, because Petrobras needs our services and our people and our expertise.

 So, here's a more of a slide show of all the different opportunities we have going well out into 2016, 2017. So we have the shuttle tankers. Half of the new FPSO that's on to Petrobras, in parentheses is who the charter is. Then we have some new innovative high-load DP unit; I won't go too much into it. Then we have a big FPSO -- a $1 billion one that's up at our sponsor that will be available to drop-down. And we have agreements with two other companies that our sponsor owns 50% of that can also bring us growth opportunities. So we have lots of ways to grow and, as you see, since we went public in 2006, we've increased the distribution 50% and we haven't even seen all the distribution growth that we'll have this year. So, it's really a great story and I'm proud to tell it.

 Now let me talk about our second MLP, Teekay LNG Partners. And here is a picture of one of ours that goes from Qatar to Europe, basically, on a steady schedule. Again, forward-looking statements you should read. So in just 10 years, we've grown to be one of the top three independent owner-operators of LNG carriers. We took our expertise from tankers and we moved it over into LNG, which had some of the same charterers. Again, here we have much longer contracts; an average contract duration of 14 years remaining on 100% of our fleet, so we are basically sold out. And that equals another $5 billion of forward fee-based revenue, and that's important because it's only by adding new projects that we increase the distribution. But here's where we do have something in common with a lot of these US MLPs, and that's the new amount of LNG exports that we are going to see; and we are right in the right place in order to capture that we see coming from 2016, 2017. The Teekay LNG partners, as well as Teekay Offshore, remain in strong financial positions. We have a tendency to pre-raise our equity going forward, and that's what we've done, basically, since the financial crisis.

 We provide liquefied natural gas liquid by petroleum gas and some crude oil, all on long-term contracts which are fee-based. I like to say our LNG's are the world's largest thermoses; they are three football fields long. And we don't actually cool it; we just keep it cool much like a swimming pool, but we have tremendous insulation. And we're not -- just like Teekay Offshore, we are not linked or exposed to the commodity prices. We get paid if we are full, empty, at anchor, or moving. And so, that makes it very stable operating model. Again, we went public in 2005 but we are a K-1 filer, as opposed to TOO, which is a 1099 filer.

 So in just 10 years we've grown to be the third largest owner -- about 50% of the LNG trade is with Japan, so the two biggest are legacy companies, Japanese companies, and we also have two on order with options for three more. So we also have good growth, and we've been able to grow both through new projects as well as through acquisitions. And what underpins Teekay LNG is these tremendous stable long-term cash flows. And what happens is, we order the ships and then we build against those contracts. So the initial contract length is 10 to 25 years with cost escalation, so it's a constant EBITDA. So just what's remaining on our LNG's is 14 years, on our LPGs about seven years, on our tankers six years. And then we try to finance out as long as we can and hedge the interest rates as well. And that gives us a stable EBITDA and, therefore, gives us a stable cash flow that we can return to our unit holders.

 And if we drill down and look at this -- at the portfolio and the quality of it, you see we have, first of all, great quality customers; and on our LNG carriers, where we have 29 units, we have $5 billion of revenues; and on our LPGs, which we just entered, we have 28 ships, about seven years. And again, it gives us a little bit more rate volatility but, as I'll talk about, we want to be exposed to that. And our conventional tankers, we have 11 of them with six years average contract like remaining.

 So, what's happened recently? Well, we bought 50% and really made a big move into LPGs by combining with a Belgian company called Exmar which focuses in on the midsize. This is primarily ammonia transporting that's going on. But we'll also have a beneficial effect from the US exports we expect to see of NGLs. And, we're also seeing a huge increase in people asking for new projects from 2016 onwards. So we therefore ordered a new type of fuel efficient -- the most fuel efficient LNG carriers that can fit through the Panama Canal, and we expect those to deliver into a better market environment in the first half of 2016. And we also have three options.

 And this is really what we're all looking at. There really won't be much more new LNG until 2016. But in 2016, you get Australia coming on, you start to see the US coming on, and you get more flows coming out of Africa. And so that's where we are focused in on. If we order ships for 2013, 2014 delivery, it wouldn't be as beneficial. In other words, we'd have to wait around. But we see this wall of LNG coming, and they are going to need very efficient LNG carriers, which is why we've placed our strategic order that we have. And so, it will really be a really great case with Australia. And we've actually been quite conservative in how we've looked at North America. But, it's really driven by China and India. And LNG, as I mentioned earlier -- Japan has about 50% of the market, Korea has about 25% of the market. Europe has about the remaining 25%, and China is coming and it's going to double what it has by 2015, and the same thing is true in India. They don't have the terminals to receive it. Again, this is an infrastructure build. So what we're doing is we're concentrating on putting in our LNG carriers as floating regasification terminals. And we can see that basically they have an unlimited need for gas in India. What they don't want is oil-linked LNG prices, which is why there is this tremendous opportunity for US exports based off of Henry Hub. But India has been laying plans to double their regasification industry, and what's interesting is they already have a lot of the trunk line pipelines built internally.

 The LPG market, where we are starting to see people get a little bit more excited, is, again, a play on ammonia, a play on different gases going forward. And so, we've taken a strategic entry into this, deciding to work with Exmar rather than compete with them because we can see that the US shale gas production is going to lead to a surplus of ethane, especially in that's going to have to be exported. There is no prohibition on those exports; they're already being exported, and we should see more of what we call ton-mile demand going there. And when the Panama Canal opens up for wider exports post-2014, we should see even more US exports going. And this is a cheaper feedstock than, for example, oil-linked naphtha. So we think our LPG fleet is doing pretty well for that. Again, we are going on point-to-point FSRUs, as well as on our organic growth. And as I mentioned earlier, we continue to pursue acquisitions inside of our verticals. We are not focusing on floating LNG right now, however. Again, very important for all of you is our track record of growing the distribution since we went public in 2005. Not by anything in our existing projects, but by adding new projects which enable us to a creatively increase the distribution.

 So let me talk a little bit about the sponsor, the owner of the two GPs, Teekay Corporation. Again, you should read the forward-looking statements. So we have a very diversified business model. We're in offshore LNG and in tankers. And we have made a big point of trying to move about 15 years ago into much more fixed-base contracts, and we've done very well, as you've seen, with our two MLPs. We still have a legacy, business tankers, but that's been deemphasized going forward. But for our customers, they see us very much as a one-stop shop. So somebody like a BP -- they use us for FPSOs, for shuttle tankers, for conventional tankers, for LNG. And what we do is we manage the assets and we are always developing projects, whether it's for Teekay or for daughter companies that we have going forward, and what links it all is the Teekay brand, the high operational standards of HSEQ. If you look at what we call the sum of the parts, Teekay is trading at about $37. But if you just add up our shares in daughter companies plus the value of our GP, it's a value of about $46, probably a little bit higher because I saw some of our MLPs hit a 52-week high today. But that's a 20% discount. So the question is, how do you close that discount and how do you continue to grow the sum of the parts up at Teekay? So the first thing we are doing is reducing our net debt. And as we drop down those six FPSOs that we own upstairs, that's dropping the net debt. Just the drop of the Voyageur FPSO earlier this year dropped our net debt by $300 million; and if you just take out the Knarr, which we are building for $1 billion, that will also take away all of our net debt going forward. So we are on track to be net-debt free going forward.

 And what we are doing rather than creating a new GP, we're basically taking all the fixed assets out of Teekay Corporation, and that allows Teekay parent to more directly benefit from the cash distributions that come up from Teekay Offshore and Teekay LNG, which we expect to continue going forward for all the reasons that I mentioned. And both have just when -- come to the high splits. And that's important because, as you know, as you move into the high splits, it ramps the amount of distributions that the general partner gets. And when you look at it, we're just getting to that inflection point going forward. So today, we have about $11 per Teekay share in GP values. But as we continue to grow them -- and we've taken a very, I would call it, conservative assumption of distribution growth -- both at TGP and TOO given the abundance of projects, you can see that we can -- that the $11 per Teekay share can grow by 2015 to be $27 a share. And therefore, the sum of the parts discount would become actually pretty obscene unless the share price follows that growth going up.

 So that's what we're committed to at Teekay -- is enhancing the value and showing the value of the general partner shares that we have upstairs. And so that's why we're not having any fixed assets going upstairs and we're not doing any warehousing if we can avoid it up at Teekay.

 So, those are the three companies I wanted to talk about today. And with the one minute I have left, I'll take any questions you have. Thank you very much.



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Questions and Answers
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Unidentified Audience Member   [1]
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 The new tankers that you're building (inaudible question -- microphone inaccessible) how are you marketing it?

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 Peter Evensen,  Teekay Offshore Partners L.P. - CEO, CFO, Director   [2]
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 So, these are our LNG tankers that we've ordered. We like to call it unspecified future opportunity rather than spec but, in any case, it is a deviation from what we've done. And that was a big question with our board -- why should we deviate from build-to-suit? And the reason was they save so much on fuel. They can save up to $20,000 a day on fuel, and when we're getting about $80,000 a day after fuel, they are -- I don't want to call this too much, but for us they were a game changer. And we saw that wall of LNG coming, so we've ordered two with an option for three, and I'm quite confident we'll be able to charter them in the next year, well before they deliver at premium rates.

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Unidentified Audience Member   [3]
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 While you're on that subject, don't most of these contracts require custom-built tankers? In other words, if I'm going to build an export terminal the way you have, I'm going to make sure that the ships are built. Or are you going to the exporters and saying -- well, we have ships available for you?

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 Peter Evensen,  Teekay Offshore Partners L.P. - CEO, CFO, Director   [4]
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 The answer is LNG tankers do not require custom-built tankers because they need to be able to fit into lots of the world's ports, and they want destination flexibility. They will specify certain sizes like it has to be the biggest that can get through the Panama Canal. But, we have built -- the standard size is 155,000 to 160,000 cubic. But post-Panama Canal people are asking for 173,000 cubic. So that extra 10% is the biggest that can go through the Panama Canal, which is why we made that order. Because ours aren't optimal today, because the Panama Canal isn't widened. But post 2014, that will be the optimal size. And there is what they call a trader size, there's trader lots, and that's traditionally been 155,000, 160,000. And so, with the exception of Japan, who had smaller ports, that's become the standardized size. And when people buy and sell LNG, they want to know that they have a standardized size. So, we have changed the propulsion system on ours to be more fuel efficient, but that's only to the benefit of the charterers.

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Unidentified Audience Member   [5]
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 Will you be chartering to the producers or to the buyers?

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 Peter Evensen,  Teekay Offshore Partners L.P. - CEO, CFO, Director   [6]
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 We'll be chartering to both. It all depends. For example, if you are Cheniere -- Cheniere has sold certain capacity, so that's to people who will buy directly from Cheniere. But Cheniere will also have some of its own equity gas, and they will be chartering ships in order to take it. What's happened is the market changed. In the old days, it was just the buyers, the Gaz de Frances, the BGs of the world. But then Angola, Nigeria, they said -- why am I selling it to you for $3.00 when you are reselling it at $10 to $15 to $20? So over time, we've seen that it isn't just the buyers, it's the producers. So for example, we have ships onto Yemen LNG, we have ships onto Angola LNG, we have ships onto Indonesia. And these are producers. So the answer is that it's both.

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Unidentified Audience Member   [7]
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 (inaudible question -- microphone inaccessible)?

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 Peter Evensen,  Teekay Offshore Partners L.P. - CEO, CFO, Director   [8]
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 I think short term there is overcapacity now, but it doesn't affect us because we are sold out through 2016. But there's about 350 ships with about 100 on order and of those 100, 34 don't have any employment. And, as I pointed out, there isn't any new gas. So we've expected weakness in the LNG spot rates in the short term. It doesn't affect our partnership, but post 2016, you'll need more ships. In fact, I think you'll need about 200 ships until 2020. And there's 34, 35 right now that are in excess. But we don't play in the spot market; we are in the long-term charter market. But, we have to know about it.

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Unidentified Audience Member   [9]
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 Westerly time if you want to be there?

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 Peter Evensen,  Teekay Offshore Partners L.P. - CEO, CFO, Director   [10]
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 The lead time is about 2.5 years.

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Unidentified Audience Member   [11]
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 Are those projected growth rates for (inaudible question -- microphone inaccessible)?

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 Peter Evensen,  Teekay Offshore Partners L.P. - CEO, CFO, Director   [12]
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 Those are illustrative. We haven't given out any guidance other than to say that TOO will increase its distribution at least another 2.5% and, as I said, I believe they are conservative.

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Unidentified Audience Member   [13]
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 (inaudible question -- microphone inaccessible) 2016, 2017, it could you say that?

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 Peter Evensen,  Teekay Offshore Partners L.P. - CEO, CFO, Director   [14]
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 Obviously if Teekay LNG declares all the options on the three new builds and has even more stuff coming, yes that will ramp. That's why I said I think it's conservative and it's illustrative. But it shows the power of how much the value of Teekay can grow.

 Good. Thank you very much. There's a breakout room as well. Thank you. Thank you.






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