Q4 2012 CENTERRA GOLD INC Earnings Conference Call
Feb 21, 2013 AM EST
CG.TO - Centerra Gold Inc
Q4 2012 CENTERRA GOLD INC Earnings Conference Call
Feb 21, 2013 / 03:00PM GMT
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Corporate Participants
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* John Pearson
Centerra Gold Inc. - IR
* Ian Atkinson
Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO
* Dave Groves
Centerra Gold Inc. - VP - Global Exploration
* Gordon Reid
Centerra Gold Inc. - COO
* Jeff Parr
Centerra Gold Inc. - CFO
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Conference Call Participants
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* Cary McCurry
TD Securities - Analyst
* Trevor Turnbull
Scotia Bank - Analyst
* Robert Bond
CCAP - Analyst
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Presentation
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Operator [1]
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Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the 2012 Fourth Quarter and Year-End Results Conference Call and Webcast. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question-and-answer session.
(Operator Instructions).
As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Tuesday, the 21st of February, 2013. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. John Pearson, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
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John Pearson, Centerra Gold Inc. - IR [2]
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Thank you. I'd like to welcome everyone to Centerra Gold's year-end conference call. Today, this conference call is open to all members of the investment community and the media in listen-only mode. After our formal remarks, we will open the phone to questions and the operator will give the instructions for asking a question.
Please note that all figures are in US dollars unless otherwise noted. Joining me on today's call is Ian Atkinson, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jeff Parr, Chief Financial Officer; Gordon Reid, Chief Operating Officer; and David Groves, Vice President, Global Exploration.
Before we begin, I would like to caution everyone that certain statements made on this call may be forward-looking statements and, as such, are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties which may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. For a more detailed discussion of the key assumptions, risk factors, and uncertainties, please refer to our news release issued last night, the 2012 MD&A, along with the audited financial statements and notes for 2012, and our other filings, which are on SEDAR and on our website.
And now I'll turn the call over to Ian.
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [3]
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Okay. Thank you, John, and good morning. First, I'd like to introduce Gordon Reid to everyone. Gordon assumed the role of COO at the start of this year. Gordon is very familiar with our operations, especially Kumtor, where he served as President of Kumtor Operating Company from 2007 to 2009.
As you know, we issued our 2012 production and 2013 guidance in early January, then our reserve and resource statement with a fourth quarter exploration update was issued just a few weeks ago. So I'll just have a few brief comments, but we'll leave time for questions and answers.
In the Kyrgyz Republic, the State Commission concluded its report regarding Kumtor and has delivered it to the Kyrgyz government. Out of this, the government has formed a working group to hold discussions with the Company. It's our understanding that yesterday the government presented the report to the full Kyrgyz Parliament.
As we reported in our news release, Parliament yesterday debated the draft resolution. That, among other things, endorses the findings and recommendations contained in the State Commission's [report]. [It] recommends that the government hold negotiations with Centerra with a view to revising the Kumtor agreement. We understand that Parliament continued its discussions of the draft resolution today and we expect to provide further information to the market once we have reliable information for public disclosure.
As stated in the press release, the Company has responded to the State Commission report. We believe that the conclusions and recommendations of the State Commission relating to the Company are exaggerated or without merit. We continue to have confidence in the validity of our 2009 agreements, which do provide that disputes are to be resolved by international arbitration.
Last week, I was in Bishkek and met separately with the management of Kyrgyzaltyn, members of the negotiating group established by the government, and with the prime minister of the Kyrgyz Republic. The purpose of the meetings was to discuss the future of the Kumtor project and to discuss outstanding concerns.
As we've always said, the revised Kumtor investment agreement signed in 2009 is a solid agreement and through constructive dialogue we are committed to seeking a mutually beneficial resolution that is fair and in the interest of all Centerra shareholders with a view to ensuring the continued success of Kumtor.
Last December at Kumtor, we successfully signed a new two-year collective bargaining agreement, which runs through December 2014. It gives the workforce a 6% increase in 2013 and a 7% increase in 2014. During 2012, we more than replaced reserves mined at Kumtor as we announced the expansion of the open pit and the new KS-13 mine plant, which extends Kumtor's mine life out to 2026.
In December, we announced the acquisition of the balance of the Oksut project and completed the transaction in January. So we now hold 100% interest in the property in Turkey. We're very excited about the initial resource estimate we just announced. We plan on advancing the project as quickly as possible to a decision point.
Also, we've had some recent success in Mongolia with our permitting. We received the heap leach permit last fall at Boroo and successfully restarted the heap leach operations in October, which added significantly to our production in Mongolia in the fourth quarter. At ATO, we converted the exploration license to a mining license. Also, are currently in discussions with the Mongolian government on the way forward with the development of the Gatsuurt property.
So with that, I'll now turn it over to Dave Groves to discuss the reserve increases in some more detail and some of the other exploration highlights.
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Dave Groves, Centerra Gold Inc. - VP - Global Exploration [4]
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Thanks, Ian, and good morning, everyone. We spent $38 million on exploration in 2012 and, as Ian mentioned, increased reserves at Kumtor by some 3.6 million contained ounces of gold before depletion, an increase of 50% over year-end 2011 reserves at Kumtor. At year-end, our proven and probable reserves Company-wide totaled 11.1 million contained ounces of gold. This reserve increase is the result of a significant expansion of the Kumtor central pit announced in November and described in detail in a new National Instrument 43-101 technical report filed on SEDAR in December 2012.
Measured and indicated resources totaled 5.1 million ounces of contained gold, which includes our initial indicated resource of 682,000 ounces of gold at our Oksut project in Turkey, and resource additions at Kumtor, which offset some of the decrease in measured and indicated resources, which were converted in mineral reserves as a result of the KS-13 pit expansion.
Inferred resources increased slightly to 4.1 million ounces of contained gold. The conversion of Kumtor underground resources and the reserves within the KS-13 expanded pit was offset by the addition of 477,000 contained ounces of new inferred resources at the Oksut project and new high grade resources outlined below the KS-13 pit design at Kumtor. The inferred resources include 1.9 million ounces of high grade underground resources at Kumtor.
As Ian mentioned, we now have 100% ownership of the Oksut project in Turkey. As of December 31, 2012, Oksut has an indicated resource of 682,000 ounces of contained gold and an inferred resource of 477,000 ounces of contained gold. The resource estimate is contained in two zones -- the Ortacam North Zone, which contains the 682,000 ounces of contained gold in the indicated category; and an inferred resource of 353,000 ounces of contained gold. The smaller Ortacam Zone, located to the south, has an inferred resource of 124,000 ounces of contained gold.
This initial resource estimate includes only oxide mineralization and is based upon 52 drill holes in the Ortacam North Zone and 21 drill holes in the Ortacam Zone. The resource estimate is contained within a preliminary whittle shell using a cut-off grade of 0.2 grams per ton gold and raw assays were top-cut to 15 grams per ton before compositing. The current oxide resources have average grades in excess of 1 gram per ton gold, which makes for an attractive heap leach opportunity at Oksut.
Our focus in 2012 was drilling the Ortacam North deposit, which now measures roughly 550 by 250 to 300 meters in plan and locally is up 200 meters thick. Step-out drilling at 100 meter spacing has closed off the Ortacam North deposit to the north and west, but the deposit remains open to the east and to the southeast towards the smaller Ortacam deposit. The deposit is also open at depths below the oxide sulphide boundary where several holes have intersected gold and supergene copper.
Currently, column leach test work is ongoing and final results are expected in the first quarter of 2013. Exploration spending in Turkey will increase to approximately $8 million as work focuses on expanding and upgrading the Oksut gold deposit resource, advancing the ongoing metallurgical test work, and initiating detailed environmental and technical project studies. So, looking forward, we plan on spending about $45 million on exploration in 2013 as we work to develop a larger pipeline of exploration and development properties.
I will now turn it over to Gordon Reid to talk about the operations.
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Gordon Reid, Centerra Gold Inc. - COO [5]
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Thanks, Dave. Good morning, everyone. Last year, Kumtor produced 315,238 ounces of gold at an operating cash cost of $655.00 per ounce. The all-in cash cost, which includes capitalized stripping, sustaining and growth capital, but excludes the revenue-based tax, was $1,808.00 per ounce for the year.
Final production results at Kumtor for 2012 were impacted initially in March by accelerated movement of the ice and waste above the high grade SB Zone ore, which required a change in mine plan, and later, in the fourth quarter, by an irregular till/bedrock contact while transitioning from waste to ore and lower than expected mill throughput, feed grade, and recovery encountered with mining a newly discovered portion of the ore body.
However, as outlined in the December 2012 Kumtor technical report, the resource block model has proven to be a reliable indicator of mineral reserves relative to gold production and we expect that trend to continue as mining transitions get back to better understood areas of the ore body.
In 2013, we expect approximately 75% of our production to come from the SB Zone, which has had a number of years of historical production. This year, approximately half of Kumtor's gold production is expected to occur in the fourth quarter. Ore production in the fourth quarter will come from the high grade SB Zone for which there is several years of production history. This ore will be available for mining at the end of the third quarter when it is exposed by cut-back 15. We estimate that the Kumtor mine will produce between 550,000 and 600,000 ounces of gold in 2013.
The Boroo operation performed well in 2012, exceeding our gold production forecast by about 7,000 ounces, producing 71,838 ounces at an operating cash cost of $699.00 per ounce. The all-in cash cost, which includes capitalized stripping, sustaining and growth capital, and royalties, but no income taxes, was $820.00 per ounce. The heap leach operation received final permitting and was restarted in October, adding 7,486 ounces of production for the fourth quarter of the year.
In 2013, Boroo is expected to produce 55,000 to 60,000 ounces, consisting of about 24,000 ounces from heap leach and 36,000 ounces from processing mill stockpiles through the CIL plant. The Boroo mill is expected to process ore stockpiles during the year with an average grade of 0.82 grams per ton. All the remaining reserves at Boroo are in the existing ore stockpiles. The Boroo operation will continue to feed the mill from those stockpiles until the end of 2014. The heap leach facility will also operate until the end of 2014, before it transitions to a close-out phase.
At this point, I would like to turn the call over to Jeff to provide a review of our financial performance.
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Jeff Parr, Centerra Gold Inc. - CFO [6]
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Thanks, Gord, and good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter, we recorded a one-time accounting charge of about $181 million to reflect the de-recognition of the underground assets at Kumtor. As I think you're all aware, this results from the decision we made in early November to expand the open pit at Kumtor, which will consume a major portion of the underground infrastructure.
In the fourth quarter of 2012, before recognizing this charge, we had adjusted net earnings of $112.7 million, or $0.48 a share. For the full year, also before recognizing the accounting charge, we reported an adjusted net loss of $3.3 million, or $0.01 per share. After reflecting the charge, we had a net loss of $184 million, or $0.78 a share.
The most significant event affecting the 2012 results was the negative impact on Kumtor's production, resulting from the unexpected acceleration of ice and waste in the high wall above the SB Zone, which made it unsafe to mine in that area. This resulted in a revision to the production plan for 2012 and our lower production for the year.
Cash provided by operations was $135 million for the year, representing $0.57 a share. Our cash and short-term investments totaled $382 million at the end of the year. This is after investing $366 million in our properties, $38 million in exploration, and paying $22 million in dividends.
In 2013, our outlook for capital expenditures is $107 million, which includes $75 million of sustaining capital, but excludes capitalized stripping of $212 million. Growth capital is expected to be $32 million, which is made up of $31 million at Kumtor, primarily for the relocation of certain infrastructure related to the KS-13 life-of-mine expansion. As I said, capitalized stripping costs related to the development of the open pit at Kumtor are expected to be $212 million for 2013.
We begin this year with a very healthy cash balance. We have $76 million of debt outstanding under our $150 million revolving line of credit with EBRD, leaving a balance of $74 million undrawn at the end of the year. The drawn amount is due to be repaid in August this year or, at the Company's discretion, could be extended until February 2014.
As a final note, Gord made reference to all-in cash costs. We've adopted this measure as we believe it's a better reflection of the actual cost of producing gold than the former Gold Institute total cash cost measure. On a consolidated basis, including all taxes, both revenue-based at Kumtor and income taxes at Boroo, the Company's all-in cash costs for 2013 is expected to be between $1,291.00 and $1,409.00, depending primarily on the level of production.
And I'll now turn it back to Ian to wrap things up.
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [7]
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Okay. Thanks, Jeff. So first, a few comments on the last 12 months. Clearly, 2012 was a very challenging year for Centerra in both a production standpoint and a political standpoint. We, however, did have another solid year in exploration with an initial resource estimate at Oksut and the replacement and signification expansion of our reserve base. We moved to paying our dividend on a quarterly basis, which at this time is reflecting a yield of over 2%. And we continue to have a dialogue with the Kyrgyz government to resolve the issues around Kumtor.
So looking forward, Kumtor's production will be at the more normal level this year, but it is still back-end loaded with 50% of the production forecast in the fourth quarter. We will continue to focus on Oksut from an exploration standpoint and continue our detailed metallurgical work in the baseline environmental and social studies to move the project forward as quickly as possible.
We're hopeful to move things forward in Mongolia after our permitting success last year. And we are committed to resolving the issues surrounding Kumtor through constructive dialogue to find a beneficial resolution which is fair to all Centerra shareholders.
Just lastly, I want to comment on our health, safety, and environmental standards at our mines. We continue to meet and exceed international standards on a consistent basis, and the safety and environmental record at both of our operations continues to be significantly better than the North American averages. And this is something that we're very proud of.
So with that, let's open up the call for questions. Operator, please give the instructions on the process for the question-and-answer session.
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Questions and Answers
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Operator [1]
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Thank you. (Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from the line of [Cary McCurry] with TD Securities. Please go ahead.
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Cary McCurry, TD Securities - Analyst [2]
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Hi. Good morning, guys.
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [3]
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Good morning.
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Cary McCurry, TD Securities - Analyst [4]
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I had a question on --. Good morning. I had a question on the -- in the event that the Kyrgyz government choose to annul the agreement, and given that they're talking about not nationalizing the mine, I'm just wondering what happens in that circumstance.
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [5]
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I think, Cary, they aren't talking about annulling the agreement at this stage. I think the key element that you've got to look at in this resolution as we understand it is that they have recommended that the government engage in negotiations with Centerra around the issues around Kumtor.
And again, I've just got to point out that we've been active in Kyrgyzstan now for 20 years, been operating there for 15 years, and we've never lost a day's production with respect to any political event. And we've gone through numerous sessions with the Kyrgyz government -- 17 Parliamentary commissions and now the State Commission, and we've always been successful through constructive dialogue in resolving the issues that have come up out of any of those.
And, as I said, we've never lost a day's production. And, in fact, one of the things that the prime minister emphasized to me when I met with him last week, again, is they want to see continued operation of the mine as we continue our discussions to resolve the issues ahead of us.
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Cary McCurry, TD Securities - Analyst [6]
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I was just trying to get a sense of what you think the worst case scenario would be.
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [7]
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As I said, I think we've been successful working our way through these things in the past and I think we'll be successful again. But to just go back to a statement I've already made, at the end of the day, the 2009 agreements are very solid agreements and they do give us the right to go to arbitration, if necessary, but that's something that we've never had to do in the past.
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Cary McCurry, TD Securities - Analyst [8]
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Okay. And then, one follow-up question, if I can. At Kumtor, you're expecting about 50% of your production in the fourth quarter. I'm just wondering how the other three quarters look, whether it's fairly steady or if there's significant grade variability.
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Gordon Reid, Centerra Gold Inc. - COO [9]
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The first nine months of the year the feed is primarily come out of our stockpiles, and we'll manage the gold production so it's relatively steady throughout that period.
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Cary McCurry, TD Securities - Analyst [10]
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Thank you.
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Operator [11]
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Thank you. (Operator Instructions). Our next question comes from the line of Trevor Turnbull with Scotia Bank. Please go ahead.
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Trevor Turnbull, Scotia Bank - Analyst [12]
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Yes. I guess I had a question maybe for Jeff on the financials. I was looking at the stripping costs and the abnormal costs, and just wondering kind of what the guidance is for that going forward. I assume stripping is what's in the pit plan and abnormal just relates to the ice removal. But while it's called abnormal, you obviously have a budget for that. Could you just give us a bit of detail on that?
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Jeff Parr, Centerra Gold Inc. - CFO [13]
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Hi, Trevor. Yes, there was actually a change to the accounting related to that at the time the board made a decision to proceed with KS-13, which I think was November 7. So prior to that, we were expensing that unload as abnormal. And I can't remember the exact amount that we expensed, but I think it was somewhere in the mid $20 million range.
And then after that, because as you strip it now -- as you're offloading that ice, it's not basically part of the KS-13 mine plan, so it becomes capital. And I think as we've said in the past, that whole unload area was about 50 million tons at $80 million, so we're probably about -- by the end of the year about halfway through that. I think we expect to be finished with that unload somewhere around mid-year and we'll probably spend about $40 million this year for that, which will be capital.
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Trevor Turnbull, Scotia Bank - Analyst [14]
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Which will be capital?
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Jeff Parr, Centerra Gold Inc. - CFO [15]
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Which will be capital and is included in the number that I mentioned earlier as part of the pre-strip, I think around $212 million.
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Trevor Turnbull, Scotia Bank - Analyst [16]
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Right. Okay. And then, just shifting gears a bit, I may have missed it when Dave was talking about Oksut, but what was -- is there a timing update on when you might expect those licenses to come through?
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Dave Groves, Centerra Gold Inc. - VP - Global Exploration [17]
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Hi, Trevor, this is Dave. We received the licenses in early January. We now have two operations licenses that cover approximately 40 square kilometers.
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Trevor Turnbull, Scotia Bank - Analyst [18]
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So, yes, you've got all those licenses now. Okay, I totally missed that. And then, I guess, a quick question on just, again, on the resolution. With respect to the resolution in the Parliament, this is a resolution that's making recommendations to the government [of the day]. So I was having a hard time understanding who kind going to sponsoring or authoring the resolution? Is that -- are these the people from the State Commission or in the opposition party, or is this the government of the day sponsoring this resolution?
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [19]
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Trevor, it's Ian. And our understanding at this stage is that the resolution was authored by one of the five Parliamentary parties, and I believe it was the Ata-Meken party.
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Trevor Turnbull, Scotia Bank - Analyst [20]
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And remind me, that's in one of the opposition parties or one of the coalition --?
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [21]
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Ata-Meken is one of the three parties that make up the current coalition, which is headed by the SDPK, which is the party, the president and prime minister of (inaudible).
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Trevor Turnbull, Scotia Bank - Analyst [22]
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Okay. And is it reasonable to think that while they're encouraging the government to renegotiate and look at the agreement, is it reasonable to assume that one outcome of that re-examination is that, in fact, it's deemed that nothing really needs to change in a material way? Or do you think that they really are intent -- do you get the sense the government really is intent on trying to change the terms of that agreement?
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [23]
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I think at this stage, Trevor, it's very difficult to speculate on that. We've already, I think as you're aware, started discussions with the government to find what is, we think, going to be an equitable resolution for all of the shareholders in this. So I think we need to continue those discussions [before] we can give you anything else.
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Trevor Turnbull, Scotia Bank - Analyst [24]
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Okay. I appreciate it, guys. Thank you.
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [25]
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Thanks, Trevor.
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Operator [26]
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Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of [Robert Bond] with [CCAP]. Please go ahead.
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Robert Bond, CCAP - Analyst [27]
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Hi. It's Rob on the phone from London. Thanks for taking the question. Just wanted to update now, when you say the agreement is rock solid, I'm just wondering for some of the measures that it appears they're asking for, there are things that appear to be outside the agreement, such as environmental charges or additional taxes or sanctions for previous violations. Are you confident? Because you way you phrased it, it sounded like everything is governed by the agreement. I'm just wondering what risk there is that things outside the agreement are raised.
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [28]
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There's probably two aspects to that, Robert. I think you're probably familiar with the history of the agreement. And just to summarize it, those agreements were very transparent agreements and negotiated over a significant amount of time, but then reviewed and ratified by the Parliamentary parties, the Parliament itself, the president's office, and signed into law. So they were done very clearly, and that's why they're very solid. And then, they were tested in the Kyrgyz Constitutional Court and we even got (inaudible) from the minister of justice at the time. That's one.
And then, the other key element of the agreements is that the 2009 agreements dealt with all matters in the past. So when they were signed in June 2009, any purported allegations, issues, environmental damage, etc. prior to that were settled by the signing of that agreement, the transfer of the shares, and other things. It also settled the tax regime. Part of that agreement, we did move to the 14% gross revenue tax, which was a tax that is -- was higher than the tax in force at the time and in force up until the end of this year until the Kyrgyz have changed the tax laws.
And with respect to the environmental claims, and again, we've already talked about those. We last year commissioned the management commission [Prismer] to complete an independent audit with respect to all of the claims outlined in the Parliamentary Commission report. And we've responded to those and we think they're without merit. We responded in detail to them; and actually, those responses are available on the Kumtor website.
And the same with the State Commission -- sorry, before the State Commission, in addition to the audit that we had completed by Prismer, through our Safety, Health, Environment Committee of the board, the board commissioned its own independent audit that was carried out. ERM, another international environmental company out of London. And again, that audit came back and supported management's view that we have no material issues at Kumtor, we are in compliance with all current Kyrgyz and international standards.
So we've had two independent reviews of our environmental efforts at site that have confirmed that we are in compliance and no material deficiencies. So, does that answer your question?
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Robert Bond, CCAP - Analyst [29]
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Yes, it does. But to a certain extent, if I can just come back with a follow-up. I guess the Kyrgyz Parliament the last couple of days has been debating this, and they came -- I guess they came out and confirmed last night, or I guess tonight their time, saying again they want negotiations, they want the government to kind of -- it sounds like, if you hear only what you've just said and you hear only what they've just said, that almost as if you two are not talking. Because they say the opposite, that we've got to talk with you, that the government has to negotiate, and the deadline June 1, and discuss all the environmental issues, what have you.
I guess, are you speaking with the Parliament? Is there any way to kind of comprise? Or how does this play out?
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [30]
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We've been in discussions with the government for some time over not only the Parliamentary Commission report, which was the one that was published in June, so those discussions continued through the latter half of last year. And then, as the draft versions of the State Commission report has become available, we have had meetings with the State Commission and other members of government, and that started in late September and has continued on.
And then directly, myself, I've made essentially a trip every month since October of last year, meeting with the prime minister on a number of occasions and members of the State Commission and government. So we've been in discussions now over the matters for some time.
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Robert Bond, CCAP - Analyst [31]
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Okay. Thank you very much.
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [32]
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Thank you, Robert.
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Operator [33]
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(Operator Instructions). We have no further questions on the phone line.
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John Pearson, Centerra Gold Inc. - IR [34]
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If there's no further questions, then we thank you all for participating in the call. And if there are further questions, the management team is around to respond to those. Thank you very much.
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Operator [35]
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Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and please ask that you disconnect your lines.
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