Q3 2012 CENTERRA GOLD INC Earnings Conference Call

Nov 08, 2012 AM EST
CG.TO - Centerra Gold Inc
Q3 2012 CENTERRA GOLD INC Earnings Conference Call
Nov 08, 2012 / 04:00PM GMT 

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Corporate Participants
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   *  John Pearson
      Centerra Gold, Inc. - VP - IR
   *  Ian Atkinson
      Centerra Gold, Inc. - President, CEO
   *  Ron Colquhoun
      Centerra Gold, Inc. - COO
   *  Jeff Parr
      Centerra Gold, Inc. - CFO
   *  Dave Groves
      Centerra Gold, Inc. - VP - Global Exploration

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Conference Call Participants
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   *  Trevor Turnbull
      Scotia Bank - Analyst
   *  Alec Kodatsky
      CIBC - Analyst
   *  Brian McCarthy
      UBS Securities - Analyst

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Presentation
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Operator   [1]
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 Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Centerra Gold 2012 third-quarter results conference call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question-and-answer session.

 (Operator Instructions)

 As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Thursday, November 8, 2012. I would now like to turn the conference over Mr. John Pearson, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

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 John Pearson,  Centerra Gold, Inc. - VP - IR   [2]
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 Thank you very much. Welcome, everyone, to Centerra Gold's third quarter conference call. Today's conference call is open to all members of the investment community and to the media in listen-only mode. After our remarks we will open the phone for questions. The operator will give the instructions for asking a question. Please note that all figures are in US dollars unless otherwise noted.

 Joining me on today's call is Ian Atkinson, President and Chief Executive Officer; Ron Colquhoun, Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Parr, Chief Financial Officer; and Dave Groves, our Vice President Global Exploration.

 For those participants that are on the webcast, you should have the maps and sections on your screen. And these Ian will be referring to in his remarks. For those of you on the phone, you may want to open the link from the news release that contains the maps and sections since Ian will be referring to those in his remarks.

 Before we begin though, I would like to caution everyone that certain statements made on this call may be forward-looking statements, and as such are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties which may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. For a more detailed discussion of the key assumptions, risk factors and uncertainties, please refer to our news releases issued last night, the MD&A, along with our unaudited financial statements and notes, and our annual and other filings on SEDAR.

 At this time I will turn the call over to Ian.

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 Ian Atkinson,  Centerra Gold, Inc. - President, CEO   [3]
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 Okay. Thank you, John and good morning, everyone. As expected, our third quarter results were impacted by the local production of Kumtor. In September Kumtor we accessed -- accessed the ore and restarted the milling activities as planned.

 However, as we transitioned between waste and ore in October we encountered more till waste than anticipated, which has impacted our plant production for the fourth quarter. As a result, we've lowered our production guidance for the year and now expect Kumtor to produce between 225,000 and 235,000 ounces of gold this quarter, bringing our consolidated production guidance for the year to 415,000 to 425,000 ounces of gold.

 By the end of October we had mined through the till ore into phase Kumtor. We're now mining ore in bedrock and do not expect to have a similar issue going forward.

 So moving on, during the quarter we did complete the detailed technical and financial study of expanding the open pit at Kumtor. The new KS-13 open pit plan significantly increases the value of the Kumtor project. Today this adds significantly to the reserves and has extended the mine life out to further five years to 2026.

 At this time I would refer people to the webcast to the four slides posted there, and for those of you on the phone to open the link in the news release to see the maps and sections. The plan maps there show in the increase in the ultimate pit boundary as for the central pit. One of the maps is also a great [fitness] map which gives an outline of the mineralization.

 If you refer to the long section, you can see that we are deepening the pit an additional 118 meters with the ultimate pit bottom at the 3,500 meter elevation. The 58% increase in open pit reserves is entirely within the central pit, and it's a result of the successful exploration drilling that we've completed on the SB Zone over the last three years, which is still on the strike land of the SB Zone and extended the SB Zone down dip, resulting in an dip, resulting in an expansion of the resources.

 This expansion of the resources, in conjunction with the decision we made in March of this year to unload the ice above the Southeast highwall of the Central Pit, created the opportunity to expand the Central Pit, with the resulting significant increase in reserves, extension of mine life and increase in value of the project.

 As our news release detailed, the increased Kumtor's proven and probable reserves by 58% to 9.7 million ounces contain gold within the expanded open pit. The expansion converts 1.2 million ounces of SB underground inferred resources into reserves, and also captures an additional two million ounces into reserves which were below the underground cutoff grade of six grams per ton.

 This can be seen on the cross section, which shows the various colored grade blocks. The orange colored blocks are at the high grade plus six gram mineralization.

 By expanding the pit, we will also recover the mineralization between the 0.85 gram per tonne cutoff grade to the open pit and the six gram per tonne cutoff grade used for the underground improved resources. Again, this is two million ounces material, which would not have been recovered if it were mined in this area from underground.

 While the expanded pitting comes as a significant part of the existing high grade SBs -- SB underground inferred resource, the option for developing an underground project in the Stockwork Zone and the deeper extensions of the SB Zone has been maintained. Currently we have close to 1.9 million contained ounces of inferred high grade underground resources beneath the expanded KS-13 pit.

 The new life in mine planning extended the mine life by five years to 2026. So it's expected to provide a more consistent quarterly production profile as we go forward after 2013. Gold production should average about 650,000 ounces annually for the next 10 years. The life of the mine all in operating costs, which includes pre-stripping capital, expansion and sustaining capital, is a very attractive $728 per ounce, which excludes the revenue-based taxes.

 The total capital required in this plan is only $726 million of the remaining of life of mine, which represents only $92 per ounce for additional capital. The study also optimized the mine plan to maximize the value at a lower risk profile.

 We used a gold price of $1,350 per ounce to estimate the reserves. And using this gold price and a discount rate of 8% we do come to our life of mine as a net present value of approximately $1.9 billion. At this gold price the new plan is expected to result in payment of approximately $1.5 billion in revenue-based taxes and provide significant other benefits to the Kyrgyz, so as continued local employment, extended procurement, local goods and services and continued support for the communities for where we operate.

 As you're aware in the Kyrgyz Republic, the state commission that is studying the Kumtor project was scheduled to complete its work and submit its final report to parliament by the first of November. However, it's now expected that that report will be delivered by about the middle of this month. So we're continuing to work with the commission as it continues to examine the project.

 Briefly, in Mongolia we've also made some good progress there. We have acquired the mining license for ATO and we've also got the permits now for each operation of Boroo, and Dave and [Rome] that's what we see there.

 The final note, yesterday we announced our third quarterly dividend at CAD0.04 per common share. So with that, I'll now turn it over to Dave to give you an update on the exploration highlights.

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 Dave Groves,  Centerra Gold, Inc. - VP - Global Exploration   [4]
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 Thank you, Ian. And good morning, everyone. I'll now provide a brief update on exploration activities for the quarter.

 Drilling in Kumtor during the third quarter was focused largely on infilling and expanding portions of the SB Zone below what is now the new KS-13 pit design. Results continue to be positive with the majority of the holes returning 40 to 100 meter long drill intervals averaging three and a half to seven grams gold per tonne and containing narrower high grade zones that have contributed to the newly announced estimate for the SB Zone underground inferred resource. Drilling will continue to infill and expand the SB Zone to depth where it remains open from surface platforms within the central pit.

 In Mongolia, and as Ian mentioned, Centerra Gold Mongolia, our exploration subsidiary, was granted a mining license for ATO in August. We also resumed drilling at ATO in the third quarter to test the periphery of the current resource area and other exploration targets in the vicinity. This drilling will continue into the fourth quarter.

 In Turkey on our Oksut joint venture we completed 17 step out holes at the Ortacam North deposit and received assay results for 12 of those holes, all of which have been posted on our website. These results expand the footprint of the deposit to an area now measuring some 500 meters by 200 meters. We continue to see broad intercepts of 0.5 gram to two gram per tonne oxide gold within the expanded footprint, and the deposit remains open to the east and to the south.

 The majority of the drill holes are oxidized over their entire length, but a few of the deeper holes have intersected the oxide sulfide boundary at a vertical depth of approximately 300 meters. We have received encouraging results from early [bottle roll] tests and have now initiated [calm lease] test work on large diameter core samples. We have five rigs on the property and we'll continue to both infill and step out drill through the fourth quarter as we work to complete an initial in-house resource estimate at the end of the year.

 I'll now turn it over to Ron Colquhoun to talk about our operations.

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 Ron Colquhoun,  Centerra Gold, Inc. - COO   [5]
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 Thanks, Dave, and just a couple things I wanted to bring to your attention on the operations. In the third quarter the Heap Leach facility at Boroo received regulatory approval and all the required permits in September with the addition of [cyanide] occurring on October the 3rd, which then resumed operations. Additionally, at Boroo we completed mining of Pit Six at the end of September and will process this ore through the fourth quarter and into January.

 For the quarter Boroo achieved better than planned gold production as the higher grade Pit Six ore was processed. With the Heap Leach coming back online we expect to produce about 65,000 ounces this year and for Boroo.

 During the quarter at Kumtor we worked through the mill shutdown, completing the planned scheduled and unscheduled maintenance on time and on budget. The plant was successfully restarted and back online September 18th as planned.

 As Ian mentioned earlier, mining in the third quarter is particularly -- in particular in September and going into October encountered an irregular till bedrock contact on the benches, which increased the amount of till waste material mined. Overall, it negatively impacted our gold production and resulted in the change of our guidance for the year.

 We have mined through this till bedrock contact and are mining in the bedrock, so we do not see this as an issue going forward. Also at Kumtor we continue to have progressive discussions and negotiations with the trade union regarding the labor contract agreement that ends December 31st of this year. At this point I would like to turn the call over to Jeff to provide the review of the financial performance.

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 Jeff Parr,  Centerra Gold, Inc. - CFO   [6]
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 Thanks, Ron, and good morning, everyone. On a consolidated basis our third quarter revenue of $69 million reflects the forecast reduction in gold sales for the quarter.

 Centerra incurred a loss for the quarter of $47 million or $0.20 a share. This reflects the reduced production at Kumtor and includes $19 million of mining cost at Kumtor that we've classified as abnormal.

 These costs have two components. The first relates to the stripping activity during the period where no ore was mined, resulting in costs that are unrelated to current production. This results in a charge of $7.9 million in the third quarter.

 Additionally, the activity associated with the removal of ice and waste material from the high movement area was recorded as an abnormal expense and totaled $11.4 million in the quarter, as we had forecast. As noted in the first quarter release, we anticipate that this activity will be more significant as the year progresses.

 With the decreased production in cash flow this quarter, along with our continued capital programs, we decided to draw $76 million from our revolving credit facility in order to increase the Company's liquidity. And we ended the quarter with approximately $260 million in cash, $76 million in debt and expect our cash balances will grow in the fourth quarter as Kumtor is back in ore.

 During the quarter we spent an accrued $14 million on sustaining capital and $65 million on growth projects, including $49 million on capitalized pre-stripping and $11 million on equipment purchases. For 2012 our outlook for capital expenditures is estimated to be $392 million, which includes an $8 million increase in sustaining capital from our prior outlook.

 Growth capital is expected to be $347 million, of which we've already spent $283 million, along with $45 million of sustaining capital. And turning to Kumtor, as noted by Ian, the technical study has indicated that the new open pit design optimizes the ore body and results in significantly more value. And the new pit will consume most of the capitalized underground infrastructure, which will therefore require an accounting charge of between approximately $175 million and $190 million. The Company will recognize this in the fourth quarter of 2012.

 I'd also like to comment on the Company's cost profile associated with the new Kumtor life of mine. If you refer to the free cash flow table we provided on page three of the news release, you can see the total capital outlay required to achieve this plan is low. As Ian mentioned, total sustaining and expansion capital is an attractive $92 an ounce. This together with operating cost and pre-stripping capital resulted in all in cost before tax of only $728 an ounce. This offers tremendous leverage to the gold price and is very attractive in relation to our peers.

 I'll now turn it back to Ian for a wrap up.

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 Ian Atkinson,  Centerra Gold, Inc. - President, CEO   [7]
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 And thanks, Jeff, so just a few comments in summary. New KS-13 open pit significantly increases the value of the Kumtor project, adding significantly to the open pit reserves and extending Kumtor's [line] life into 2026. The new life of mine plan optimizes the mining plan and maximizes the value of Kumtor at a lower risk profile.

 And finally, after 15 years of continuous production Kumtor, we now have a further 14 years of mine life in front of us and a reserve base of nearly 10 million ounces, the highest in the project's history. And that's after producing over eight and half million ounces of gold to date.

 So with that let's open up the call for questions. So, operator, would you please give instructions on the process of the question-and-answer session? Thank you.



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Questions and Answers
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Operator   [1]
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 Thank you. (Operator Instructions). Our first question will come from the line of Trevor Turnbull with Scotia Bank. Please proceed with your question.

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 Trevor Turnbull,  Scotia Bank - Analyst   [2]
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 Yes. Thanks, guys. I guess for Ian and Dave I was wondering now that you've been able -- you've had such good success with the underground drilling flushing out this new material that is now open pit material, can you talk a little bit about whether or not -- how you can continue to perhaps put, drive the open pit even further? Will you still be able to target this material that's just below the new ultimate pit in the SB Zone? And is there a way to continue to target stuff over in the Stockwork area that it too might get to a point where you could pull it into an ultimate pit?

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 Ian Atkinson,  Centerra Gold, Inc. - President, CEO   [3]
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 Maybe I'll start it off and then pass it over to Dave, Trevor. The current open pit, particularly on the SB Zone portion of the ore body is pretty well now at its limits simply because if you look at the pit outline on the southwest side it comes up against a very steep hill, and even on the southeast side you actually hit bedrock that rises quite rapidly, so that any further expansion in that area would have really a significant GT, a real significant increase in strip ratio, so it could be a significant increase in the gold price to do that.

 At the north end, however, there still is an opportunity there, the Stockwork underground resource. And then there is a larger open pit resource around that that is still there. And again that really sits there simply because of the strip ratio, but with higher gold prices and changes in cost then some of that could be moved into an open pit reserve from resources. And that's really dependent on maintaining costs and higher gold prices. I'll let Dave answer how we can approach a continuing to drill this piece.

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 Dave Groves,  Centerra Gold, Inc. - VP - Global Exploration   [4]
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 Yes. Trevor, yes our focus is going at least in the near term will continue to be on expanding and extending the SBs onto depth. We have the ability to do that with our current surface fleet.

 If you look at the results that we posted for this quarter you'll see that they're robust intercepts all with internal intervals of 10 to 20 grams per tonne gold over five to 15 meter intervals on average. And that remains open at depth. And we have the opportunity with our surface fleet to chase that down at least another 400 meters in elevation, and some 700 meters below what will be the KS-13 pit bottom. So that's where the near term focus is.

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 Trevor Turnbull,  Scotia Bank - Analyst   [5]
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 Okay. And just looking at the long section of the new pit and the Stockwork, the Stockwork Zone, maybe it's oversimplified, but it looks like you're starting to daylight that ultimate pit out the back of the hill. And it looks like stripping ratios might actually not be that hard for you to work with as if you were to drive the Stockwork Zone a little deeper. Is -- am I seeing that right, or is that just an artifact of the way that long section look?

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 Ian Atkinson,  Centerra Gold, Inc. - President, CEO   [6]
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 It's a little -- they are cartoons, Trevor. And it is a little bit of an artifact of where that long section is cut. And if we could have pushed that wall out further we would have. It's -- if you look at it on the extremes of the northeast or the right-hand side that area it's largely blue. And we've drilled a number of holes in that area that the structure is still there, but it's very lumpy and very long in mineralization. So you just don't get enough value in that upper portion of it to allow it to pull down to access that Stockwork Zone.

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 Trevor Turnbull,  Scotia Bank - Analyst   [7]
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 Okay. Yes I wasn't sure if it was for lack of drilling or if the geology had started to get a little tougher for you. All right that's all I had. Thanks, guys.

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 Ian Atkinson,  Centerra Gold, Inc. - President, CEO   [8]
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 Okay. Thanks, Trevor.

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Operator   [9]
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 (Operator Instructions). Our next question will come from the line of Alec Kodatsky with CIBC. Please go ahead.

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 Alec Kodatsky,  CIBC - Analyst   [10]
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 Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I just wanted to circle on a couple of things, first with respect to the till bedrock interface that caused the problems in the quarter, sort of I guess where did it come from in the context of what you thought you were going to find. And is this something that you've incurred or encountered in the past? And just what gives you the comfort that you don't think it won't reoccur in the future?

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 Ian Atkinson,  Centerra Gold, Inc. - President, CEO   [11]
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 Yes. Alec, it's Ian. I'll try to answer that one for you. As you mine down, particularly where we're mining in cut back 14-B, this is the first time we've got down to the top of the ore in that area. And actually what we're mining a large part of, what we're mining in 14-B currently is mineralization that we added last year and still have been referring to as the hockey stick.

 So it hasn't been touched before. So when you come down, first come down to it, in this case it's now to mine down through obviously through some of the ice. And then once you get into till you might, you just might have a till which actually can be quite messy, particularly when it's wet, and then down into bedrock.

 You do find a little bit of ore right at till bedrock interface that gets incorporated into till, but as soon as you clean that off you're into normal bedrock that is somewhat, can be a little bit oxidized, but it usually doesn't go very far. That till/bedrock interface is a glacial surface, so it undulates. And our resource space drilling is at about 40 meter centers. And actually in the area of the hockey stick there's a couple of holes that are around 60 meters apart.

 So if you get an undulation in that surface, which you can between 40 meter holes, you get small valleys develop on the [caulking] of the glacier. And that really can have an impact and did have an impact on the reserve estimation because all the depth that we have you have to sort of profile it from the holes drilled. And if you get one of these narrow valleys dipping down between them, or off to a side where you don't have the great density you're drilling, it creates the issue, which it has done.

 Once you're through that till layer and into bedrock, our bedrock modeling because we've been mining the SB Zone since 2007, it's done very well in terms of a reconciliation. And it's always performed within plus or minus 5%.

 And now we're down through the till, actually pretty well across the entire length of the SB Zone. We won't run into this problem again. There's no till to be mined that ends up in ore.

 We have had the issue once before, if you go back three years when we first got down to the top of the SB Zone a little over, further over to the northeast. We had a similar problem in the first month, but in that case we had a bit more time to catch up on it so that it didn't have as big an impact on our production outlook for the year.

 So we've encountered it once before. We understand it. We mined through it so it's behind us at this point in time.

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 Alec Kodatsky,  CIBC - Analyst   [12]
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 Okay. That's helpful. And moving on to I guess the pit expansion, there's still a considerable amount of material available on the underground. I recognize you're just obviously finished with the open pit planning. Is there any view at this time to sort of come back with an updated expectation or plan for what you're going to do with the underground, or will you take some time to sort of see how the open pit expansion goes?

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 Ian Atkinson,  Centerra Gold, Inc. - President, CEO   [13]
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 Well we've actually got some time here now because we certainly the way we look at it currently with the inferred resource in the SB Zone we would look at accessing that from the bottom of the ultimate SB pit. So we'll be mined out in the SB Zone by about 2017.

 So that now gives us this four-year window. As Dave said, there's still an opportunity to -- actually while not an opportunity, the SB Zone is actually open still down dip and a long stripe. So Dave will be drilling a number of holes to follow up on that to see if we can find the bottom of the zone. And that will then allow us to upgrade and update the resource of the SB Zone. And we did -- would hope to get a lot of that drilling done probably over the next couple of years, put us a position to work out the resource and then look at a structure that we could put down the (inaudible) and develop that if the results warrant.

 The Stockwork Zone we have access to that. We've actually upgraded some of that to an indicated category. So we have some sense of what we're dealing with there. The issue is is getting access to it for long enough to develop it.

 The current pit plan we'd lose access to the Stockwork Zone as well if it went quickly, about a year and a half, two years from now. So we don't have enough time to get in there and develop any ore and extract it really effectively, so that access to that is now going to be and to be deferred, again to beyond 2017. Once that pit, final pit wall is developed we can then start looking at putting a reopening of the decline to the SB or to the Stockwork Zone and developing it.

 So we've got about four years here now to again chase the SB Zone down dip, work out just what it is for us and take a more detailed look at the Stockwork Zone and how we'd like to try to develop it. And again all of that is dependent on grade and gold price as we go forward, so --

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 Alec Kodatsky,  CIBC - Analyst   [14]
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 Okay that's great. And just maybe to wrap up, you indicated that I think the parliamentary review is sort of pushed back into November of that finding as far as how long the government you will take to issue a response?

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 Ian Atkinson,  Centerra Gold, Inc. - President, CEO   [15]
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 No. Our as we said they were supposed to deliver the report to parliament November 1st, in which that case document would become public. So we know that has been pushed off as say our best estimate right now or from what we understand is it's going to be the about the middle of this month.

 Once they do back into parliament we would expect that they will go in with a document and become public. Then we know what the state commission's findings are and then we'll respond to it at that time.

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 Alec Kodatsky,  CIBC - Analyst   [16]
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 Okay. Thanks very much, Ian.

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 Ian Atkinson,  Centerra Gold, Inc. - President, CEO   [17]
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 Yes. Thanks, Alec, yes.

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Operator   [18]
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 Our next question will come from the line of Brian McCarthy with UBS Securities. Please proceed with your question.

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 Brian McCarthy,  UBS Securities - Analyst   [19]
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 Yes. I just wanted to follow up on the last question with this change in plan which is obviously very positive. Do you think it will have any impact on the review that's being done for the government for the parliament right now? Are they two totally independent events, or is there anything in here that could make them, to the best of your knowledge, go back and drag this out longer?

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 Ian Atkinson,  Centerra Gold, Inc. - President, CEO   [20]
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 No. Brian, as we've said, we got our agreement. It was renegotiated in 2009, a very transparent process, settled all the issues at that point in time. And that agreement, the process it went through is such in Kyrgyz the laws with a very strong agreement for us is the one that we've continued to invest in the country and are looking at continuing to invest in the country and going forward.

 That's our position on it. The state commission is going to look at the project and things. We'll have to wait and see just what comes out of that commission review and then deal with those questions as it goes forward. So how they will interpret this resource expansion and what twists, what way they will look at it we really just can't comment on at this point in time.

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 Brian McCarthy,  UBS Securities - Analyst   [21]
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 Okay. Thank you very much.

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Operator   [22]
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 And at this present time there are no further questions from the phone lines.

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 John Pearson,  Centerra Gold, Inc. - VP - IR   [23]
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 Well hearing no further questions we'll wrap up the call. Management is here. And if people do have further questions please get a hold of myself or Ian and we'll address your questions. Thank you very much for attending the call.

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Operator   [24]
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 Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a great day, everyone.




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