Q2 2012 CENTERRA GOLD INC Earnings Conference Call
Aug 02, 2012 AM EDT
CG.TO - Centerra Gold Inc
Q2 2012 CENTERRA GOLD INC Earnings Conference Call
Aug 02, 2012 / 03:00PM GMT
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Corporate Participants
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* John Pearson
Centerra Gold Inc. - VP of IR
* Ian Atkinson
Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO
* David Groves
Centerra Gold Inc. - VP of Global Exploration
* Ron Colquhoun
Centerra Gold Inc. - VP, COO
* Jeff Parr
Centerra Gold Inc. - VP, CFO
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Conference Call Participants
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* Alec Kodatsky
CIBC - Analyst
* Daniel McConvey
Rossport Investments - Analyst
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Presentation
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Operator [1]
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Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Centerra Gold 2012 second-quarter results conference call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Thursday, August 2, 2012.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. John Pearson, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
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John Pearson, Centerra Gold Inc. - VP of IR [2]
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Thank you, Chris. Welcome today to Centerra Gold's second-quarter conference call. Today's conference call is open to all members of the investment community and to the media in listen-only mode. After our remarks, we will open the phone to questions. The operator will give the instructions for asking a question. Please note that all figures are in US dollars, unless otherwise noted.
Joining me on today's call is Ian Atkinson, President and Chief Executive Officer; Ron Colquhoun, Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Parr, Chief Financial Officer; and David Groves, Vice President, Global Exploration.
Before we begin, I would like to caution everyone that certain statements made on this call may be forward-looking statements, and as such, are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties which may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or are implied. For a more detailed discussion of the key assumptions, risk factors and uncertainties, please refer to our news release issued last night, the MD&A, along with the unaudited financial statements and notes and our annual and other filings on SEDAR.
And now I will turn the call over to Ian Atkinson.
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [3]
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Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. On the Kyrgyz Republic, the events over the past six weeks have had a significant impact on our share price. While we believe that the findings of the Parliamentary Commission's report are without merit, we will work with the State Commission and government to address the matters raised and to resolve other issues identified in the parliamentary resolution in accordance with our agreements. The State Commission is scheduled to complete its work by the first of October and submit the final report to Parliament by the first of November. In the past, we've successfully worked with the government and authorities to resolve all issues and we will continue an open and constructive dialogue with the Kyrgyz going forward.
Kumtor is operated and in full compliance with Kyrgyz laws and meets or exceeds Kyrgyz and international environmental, safety and health standards. This has been demonstrated over the years in systematic compliance orders by both the Kyrgyz and international independent experts, who have all confirmed Centerra's high level of performance.
Also, I would like to remind people that the new agreements we signed back in 2009 were approved by all relevant Kyrgyz governmental authorities, including the Kyrgyz Parliament and the Constitutional Court, and that all disputes in relation to our new agreements are subject to international arbitration.
At Kumtor, we are continuing with the detailed technical and financial study of the potential for expanding the levels of the ultimate pit. While a lot of work still needs to be done from a technical, financial and permitting standpoint, the work done to date has produced some very encouraging results and indicates that a much larger open pit is feasible, which would result in a significant addition to the open pit reserves and a substantial extended mine life.
This opportunity has been created by the expansion of the reserves and resources in the SB Zone over the last three years in conjunction with a decision we made in March to mitigate the impact of the high-movement area by offloading the ice from the upper portion of the southeast section of the pit. The expanded pit encompasses a significant part of the existing SB underground development and would result in a revaluation of the associated capital investments. Further development work on Decline #1 has been postponed until the study is finalized.
The expanded pit may also require removal of additional ice and waste material, and this may have an impact on the short-term production and financial estimates that we previously disclosed in our first-quarter release.
The work to assess the impact and development of the revised mining schedule and life-of-mine plan is ongoing. So at this point in time, it is very -- we are not able to quantify the potential revisions. We expect to complete this study and release its conclusions late in the third quarter.
Just a short note on Mongolia. The parliamentary elections were held at the end of June. The Democratic Party got 31 seats out of a possible 76 seats in Parliament. The new government will be formed in the fall, at which point then we can start discussions with them about Gatsuurt.
Just moving on now to our results, our quarterly results, as expected, were impacted by the low gold production we had forecast. Our cash cost, though, was better than we had forecast; it came in at $885 per ounce. This reflects Kumtor's slightly higher production.
At Kumtor, we are on track to be back in ore in six weeks' time, around the middle of September. We expect to meet our -- and so we expect to meet our gold production guidance of 390,000 to 410,000 ounces for the year.
On the financial front, we reported a net loss for the quarter of $0.23 per share, or $55 million, which includes $13.5 million of abnormal mining costs at Kumtor related to the revised mining plan, $21 million for Kumtor's contribution to a national microcredit financing program in the KR and a charge of $7.2 million for a gold medal reconciliation adjustment of the stockpiles at Kumtor.
So as a final note, yesterday we announced our second quarterly dividend of CAD0.04 per common share.
So with that, I will now turn it over to David Groves to discuss the exploration highlights for the quarter. Dave may be new to many of you, but he joined us actually last summer and has taken over my former role as Vice President of Global Exploration. Dave.
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David Groves, Centerra Gold Inc. - VP of Global Exploration [4]
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Thank you, Ian, and good morning, everyone. Drilling at Kumtor during the second quarter continued to return positive results. We drilled 16 holes from the central pit to test the continuity and western extensions to the SB Zone, and all but two of those holes, (technical difficulty) stopped short due to technical reasons, intersected zones of mineralization at or below the KS12 pit design.
An example of some of the better intercepts includes 7.9 grams per tonne gold over 39.9 meters, 6.4 grams per tonne gold over 35 meters and 7.4 grams per tonne gold over 40.9 meters. A majority of the intercepts lie beyond the limits of the current KS12 pit design and will have a positive impact on future resource estimates.
We also completed 15 delineation holes and a single exploration hole in the Stockwork Zone drive in the Kumtor underground. However, six of these holes were abandoned short of their target due to drilling difficulties. Better results include 25.7 grams per tonne gold over 3.5 meters and 13.5 grams per tonne gold over 3.5 meters.
Seven exploration holes were also completed from Decline #1. A geotechnical hole drilled last quarter from Decline #1 returned 11.4 grams per tonne gold over 21 meters, including 24 grams per tonne gold over 5.5 meters in an area some 200 meters below existing drilling.
The delineation drilling in the Stockwork Zone is now complete and work will shift to exploration of the SB Zone from Decline #1 in the third quarter.
In Mongolia, the Mineral Resource Authority of Mongolia formally accepted the ATO reserves and resources report. The ATO General Environmental Impact Assessment was also officially approved by the Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism. Work continues on metallurgical, hydrological and environmental studies in support of an application for a mining license.
Exploration drilling resumed in June, targeting extensions and feeders to the pipelike bodies hosting the current ATO resource and for possible strike extensions to the nearby Mungu Prospect. Drilling will continue at Mungu and ATO throughout the third quarter.
In Turkey, on the Oksut Project at Ortacam North, we had a slow start to the exploration season due to an unusually long and snowy winter in the central region of Turkey. Work started with two drills, completing two deep holes in June and the final assay results were pending at the end of the quarter for these holes. Exploration drilling will continue in the third quarter with four drill rigs and include both step-out and infill drilling at the Ortacam North deposit, which remains open in several directions.
The results from this year's drilling will be used to calculate a measured and indicated resource for Ortacam North. We also expect to complete our Phase 2 earn-in to 70% later this year.
I will now turn it over to Ron to talk about our operations.
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Ron Colquhoun, Centerra Gold Inc. - VP, COO [5]
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Thanks, Dave. In the second quarter at Kumtor, we continued to work in the unload area of the mine, removing the ice and waste material from the high movement area in the southeast section of the pit wall, and continued our prestrip in the southwest section of the pit wall to access ore. We are on track to get back into ore by mid-September.
In the second quarter, Kumtor produced 41,000 ounces, which was a little better than we had forecasted for the quarter, as Ian previously mentioned. The milled process stockpile material with lower grades and mill head grades which averaged 1.33 grams per tonne with a recovery of 71% compared to 3.27 grams per tonne and recoveries of 83% last year. We now have depleted the stockpiles at Kumtor and are processing the last of the in-circuit gold. The mill is shutdown to complete a series of scheduled mill repairs and maintenance items over the next six weeks and is scheduled to start in mid-September at its full production rate.
We are continuing our mining efforts to expose the next ore blocks in the south portion of the SB Zone. The new mine fleet equipment that was ordered in 2011 continues to arrive as per the manufacturing and delivery schedule, and the balance of the 10 remaining trucks and three shovels will be delivered to the site this quarter.
Work continued in the quarter on the Kumtor underground with a total advance of 536 meters. Decline #1, which is in the SB Zone, advanced 92 meters, while Decline #2 advanced 444 meters towards the SB Zone. The two underground declines joined up June 30, and we established the ventilation system with a flow-through ventilation.
As Ian explained earlier, we have now postponed further development work on Decline #1 until the detailed technical and financial study of the potential for expanding the limits of the ultimate pit is completed. The study will also access the potential impact of such an open pit expansion on our underground development plan.
At Boroo, mining activities continued in the quarter, and we have exposed the ore in Pit 6 at the end of the quarter. For the balance of the year, Boroo mill will process ores from Pit 6 and stockpiles.
At this point, I would like to turn the call over to Jeff to provide a review of our financial performance.
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Jeff Parr, Centerra Gold Inc. - VP, CFO [6]
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Thanks, Ron. Good morning, everyone. On a consolidated basis, our second-quarter revenue of $90 million reflects the 63% reduction in gold sales for the quarter, along with a slightly higher average realized gold price of $1597 an ounce. During the quarter, we had a loss of $55 million or $0.23 a share. This reflects reduced production at Kumtor, and it includes, as Ian indicated, $13 million of abnormal mining costs at Kumtor, a $21 million contribution to a national micro credit financing program in the Kyrgyz Republic, and a charge of $7 million related to a gold-metal reconciliation adjustment of the stockpiles at Kumtor.
The abnormal mining costs at Kumtor has two components. The first relates to the stripping activity during the period, where no ore was mined, resulting in costs that would have been added to inventory in excess of what the Company believes can be realized after further processing and subsequent sale of the gold. This results in a charge of roughly $10 million in the second quarter, which has been recorded as abnormal mining expense.
Additionally, the activity associated with the removal of the ice and waste material from the high-movement area was recorded as an abnormal expense. This totaled $4 million in the quarter, as we had forecast. As noted in the first-quarter release, we anticipate that this will be more significant as the year progresses.
In May, we advanced $30 million of future revenue-based taxes to the Kyrgyz Republic to assist the government with its budget shortfalls, which resulted in part from the reduced production at Kumtor. This will be offset against future taxes beginning in November, with $10 million being offset this year and the remaining $20 million offset in 2013.
With the decreased earnings, which reflect the lower production and abnormal costs this quarter, along with our capital programs, the Company's cash and investments balance is reduced from $446 million at the end of the first quarter to about $300 million.
During the quarter, we spent and accrued $12 million on sustaining capital and $103 million on growth projects, including $64 million on capitalized prestrip, $18 million on equipment purchases and $12 million for the underground project, all that Kumtor.
For 2012, we are maintaining our outlook for capital expenditures of $384 million. Of that, growth capital is expected to be $348 million, which is made up of $126 million for the purchase of new mining equipment at Kumtor, $156 million in prestrip costs in the open pit and $47 million for the underground development of the declines.
I should point out that depending on the results of the pit study, we may change our guidance for the underground at a later date the year.
At Boroo, 2012 sustaining capital expenditures are expected to be $3 million, and growth capital is forecast at $12 million, which includes $8 million of capital prestrip costs at Pit 6.
I will now turn it back to Ian to wrap up.
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [7]
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Thank you, Jeff. Just a few comments in summary. We are continuing our mitigation plan at Kumtor and are roughly six weeks away from getting back into ore, and then resuming normal production rates at the mills.
We are working with the State Commission and the government, providing them the information that they need to conclude their work by October 1.
Finally, we are finalizing the detailed technical and financial study at Kumtor of the potential for expanding the limits of the ultimate pit and the impact of an expanded open pit on reserves and resources, the underground and the life-of-mine plan. This study is expected to be completed with the release of the conclusions late in the third quarter.
With that, let's open up the call for questions. So operator, would you please give out the instructions on the process for the question-and-answer session?
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Questions and Answers
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Operator [1]
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(Operator Instructions) Alec Kodatsky, CIBC.
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Alec Kodatsky, CIBC - Analyst [2]
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Thanks and good afternoon -- I guess it is still morning. But I just had a few questions I guess to sort of kick it off. With respect to the parliamentary review process, have you been able to get any sort of additional insight as far as how the government feels about what is going on? Obviously, the Parliament has sort of expressed its view.
And I guess sort of as a follow-on to that, is there a view post-November as far as how this process would play out? Obviously, the findings come in in October, and it is put to Parliament in November. Is there any sort of idea on the timelines for resolution from that point?
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [3]
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Alec, I think I can answer the question. As for the State Commission that is now going through its review process, the State Commission has been formed. There is actually three groups -- working groups underneath it, and they have been put together. One group is there to look at the environmental and mining aspects of Kumtor. A second on the social and financial aspects; that is looking at taxes, employment agreements, procurement and other things. And the third group is looking at legal matters, which is looking into all prior agreements.
We have been approached, as we expected, to provide information to them, [what] we've been doing over the last week, 10 days. The financial group actually have been in our offices in Bishkek now for the week. And the mining and environmental group are actually visiting our Balykchy marshaling yard today, and then we'll go up to site tomorrow.
In terms of where -- as I said, there are no specifics as to what they are looking at. They just split it up into the three groups that I talked about and will come back, having looked at those various aspects with respect to what the various assertations and allegations in the Parliamentary Commission report.
Once they've reported back to Parliament in October, I think at that point in time, we may have a better sense of just where things will be going. But until then, I think it is too difficult for us to speculate much.
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Alec Kodatsky, CIBC - Analyst [4]
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Okay. And I guess sort of focusing on Kumtor still, I understand that details are still light as far as the pit redesign. But can you give us any sort of sense as far as how much of the underground material could be encompassed in the pit? And in terms of what the project will ultimately become, is it -- are we looking at adding trunks and a mill expansion or is this going to be something that utilizes the existing kit?
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [5]
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Again, it is an ongoing study, as I know you are aware, Alec. So it is difficult for us to give you any specifics at this point in time, much as we would like to; but we have to finalize the analysis.
The pit obviously if we expand it will take out some of the underground inferred resources, and we have to find -- we have to complete the details of the pit design, the optimization of the pit and then also find that balance between where we get the most value of extracting material from the open pit with respect to the underground. And that process does take some time and that is what we are working our way through right now.
In terms of the mill itself, we have no plans to expand the mill. It has actually done very well for us over the last 15 years, and certainly at the rate we run it, about 17,000 tonnes per day, we can keep it full for quite some time, and don't see any real value at this point in time in expanding it. But that, again, is part of this study, but it would be a second phase.
In terms of the fleet, again, that is part of the analysis we have to go through right now in expanding the pit. As we've mentioned, we may end up having to move a bit more ice and waste. So again, we've got to go through the detailed optimization for the pit and do the fleet analysis to work out what, if any, additional trucks are required. And if there are, I wouldn't expect it would be many, simply because of course we have expanded the fleet significantly over the last 18 months and we are up now to a fairly consistent mining rate, roughly 0.5 million tonnes per day or 285,000 BCMs, I think it is, per day. And we've been maintaining that for the last little while.
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Alec Kodatsky, CIBC - Analyst [6]
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Okay, so the goal would be to keep the existing mill full, and however the grades ultimately work out in terms of the conversion from underground to open pit will sort of dictate where the production settles out. Is that a reasonable way to look at it?
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [7]
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I think that is reasonable, because, again, certainly balancing the feed to the mill is fairly key to getting the best recoveries, and that is certainly a practice we've had for a number of years, running a number of stockpiles to try to maintain a fairly constant feed grade and to improve the recoveries in the mill or maintain the recoveries in the mill.
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Alec Kodatsky, CIBC - Analyst [8]
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Okay. And with respect to the discovery holes that you announced today at Kumtor, you said that they are outside at the KS12 pit. Would they be -- is the plan to include them in the revised pit?
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [9]
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I would maybe let Dave answer that one.
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David Groves, Centerra Gold Inc. - VP of Global Exploration [10]
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Alec, the results that we have reported on today will be incorporated in the study of an expanded pit option.
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Alec Kodatsky, CIBC - Analyst [11]
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Okay. And I guess just sort of a last question, if I could. Just with respect to the timelines in Mongolia, you're sort of expecting something to happen in the fall. Is there any -- or do you have any more clarity or anything perhaps from the other side that would maybe pinpoint the dates where you may start discussions?
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [12]
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No. As we said, the elections were late June. Because the DP, the Democratic Party, only did not get a majority government, they've now got a form of coalition government, and that is still a work in progress.
Once that is resolved and we know what the makeup of the government is and they appoint the various cabinet ministers, it is at that point in time that we can work out what our plans will be going forward, to introduce ourselves to them and educate them on the aspects of Gatsuurt and the leach operation and move things forward from there.
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Alec Kodatsky, CIBC - Analyst [13]
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Okay, thanks. I'll let somebody else have a turn.
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [14]
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All right. Thanks, Alec.
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Operator [15]
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(Operator Instructions) [Chris Christianson], Rossport Investments.
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Daniel McConvey, Rossport Investments - Analyst [16]
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Actually, hi, Ian, it's Daniel McConvey calling. Ian, with the expansion of the pit. I am just -- because of the ice and the issue -- the environmental focus you are on, I am wondering as you're moving up towards 200 million tonnes a year of movement, and the expanded pit might be even more than that, just what -- how do you kind of answer the concerns about maybe the heat generation, et cetera, when you are trying to balance out whether you should go open pit versus underground? In other words, just the general environmental concerns you would get by such a huge operation, with all the focus you're getting on the environmental stuff right now.
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [17]
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Dan, of course we've been -- as you know, we've been mining Kumtor now -- we're in our 15th year, and certainly receives permits on an annual basis to continue the mining. There have been allegations -- the environmental concerns raised in the Parliamentary Commission, but of course we said numerous times that we think those are unfounded.
We are not looking at expanding the mining rate currently anyways at Kumtor, looking at trying to move things forward at 0.5 million tonnes per day. And the mining of the ice that we are currently doing, again, is approved and under the Kyrgyz mining -- by the Kyrgyz, and that is moving forward as planned.
An expanded pit would continue that effort and may require the removal of a little more ice, but I don't -- we are not talking huge volumes. It is mainly waste itself, and then it is the management of that waste that we've still got to finish -- one of the things we've got to still -- still got to finish the analysis of, and that is really the size of your waste facility, your waste dump.
And in terms of environmental matters, we have always been in compliance and always had permits for any of the plans we've submitted. So that is part of the analysis we have to go through in the study, and once we get to the end of it, and assuming it is positive, we then have to make the necessary applications to move it forward.
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Daniel McConvey, Rossport Investments - Analyst [18]
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I'm just wondering -- well, first off, does the -- would the expansion increase the mining rate much in terms of annual movement, or would it just kind of keep the current planned annual movement for a longer period of time?
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [19]
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Our current plan is to keep the annual movement about the same for a longer period of time.
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Daniel McConvey, Rossport Investments - Analyst [20]
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Okay. And with the -- obviously, you are looking at the larger pit as more economic than going after a lot of the stuff underground and bringing in more ore. But it just -- I ask the question just because of the sensitivity of the time, and it just seems -- underground mining is less intrusive, and hence if they are both equal, you'd probably prefer to go underground.
But it is the sensitivity of the time that makes me kind of raise the question in terms of balancing out how you go open pit versus underground in certain areas.
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [21]
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That, Dan, is actually part of the analysis we have to go through. It is -- as you correctly point out, we've got to find that optimum point between what we can extract from an open pit in the near future relative to what we can access from underground and relative costs. And then at the end of the day, which leads to developing the best value from the ore body.
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Daniel McConvey, Rossport Investments - Analyst [22]
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Okay. Thanks, Ian.
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Operator [23]
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(Operator Instructions) Alec Kodatsky, CIBC.
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Alec Kodatsky, CIBC - Analyst [24]
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Thanks again. I just had a couple of follow-ups. Is it still contemplated that there would be an underground operation at this point, or would it be exclusively open pit?
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [25]
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Again, that is part of the analysis we've got to go through. But certainly, I think if you can recall some of the long sections and things we do put up routinely on our website, there's the north end of the pit, the Stockwork Zone, clearly there is a stripping problem there that the stock work would likely have to be accessed primarily by underground.
The SB Zone, it is still open at depth. We've still got a lot of upside on it. So there is drilling to be done there to work out where that balance is and actually how much will remain beneath any potential expanded pit. And there has got to be -- there is an opportunity for that, so there is quite likely an underground opportunity with any expanded pit that we do come to grips with.
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Alec Kodatsky, CIBC - Analyst [26]
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Okay, great. Thank you.
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Operator [27]
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(Operator Instructions) Gentlemen, it appears we have no questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to you.
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Ian Atkinson, Centerra Gold Inc. - President, CEO [28]
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All right. If there are no further questions, I would just like to thank you for joining Centerra on the conference call. If you have any further questions, please give John, Jeff or myself a call. Have a good weekend.
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Operator [29]
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Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.
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